I've always wondered about this scene.

[u/CTYankee1788]

The way Azula worded herself made it seem like disobeying her and waiting for the waters to calm was the smarter decision. If they went against her orders, they'd have a chance of survival, but if they followed her orders, they'd die for sure. Maybe the captain figured that Azula's wrath would be worse than death, which is believable. Iroh and Zuko thought that too. But Azula didn't imply that in this conversation. She only brought up chances of survival.

[u/Midnight1899]

What she actually said was: "The tides will definitely kill you no matter what. I might not, so you should try to get on my good side.“