By James M. Dorsey
In March, Yechiel Leiter, Israel’s ambassador to the United States, cancelled his participation in the launch of a Heritage Foundation proposal to change the paradigm of US-Israeli military relations.
Mr. Leiter's cancellation prompted the Washington-based conservative foundation to scrap a public presentation of a proposed roadmap that would “re-orient (the United States’s) relationship” with Israel towards a “true strategic partnership” instead of the long-standing positioning of the Jewish state as a “security aid recipient.”
The foundation played a significant role in conceptualising many of President Donald Trump's policies.
At the time, Mr. Leiter's scheduled appearance at the Heritage launch was not the only engagement that the ambassador cancelled.
He also called off a meeting with visiting Israeli lawmaker Amit Halevi, the chairman of parliament’s Subcommittee on Security Doctrine and Force Buildup.
Mr. Halevi, a member of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud party, was in Washington to convince Republican members of Congress and conservative think tanks and organisations that changing the US-Israeli relationship was in the interest of both countries.
During his 10-day visit, Mr. Halevi distributed a pamphlet entitled “A Great Israel – A Greater America. Ending Aid. Expanding Sovereignty” that advocated replacing the aid-based military relationship "with a model that strengthens bilateral cooperation,” including jointly funded research-and-development projects in defence, cybersecurity and intelligence.
The pamphlet argued that aid “creates a false narrative of dependency, weakens Israel’s global standing and subjects it to political pressure. In reality, US support for Israel is a strategic investment, delivering immense value for every dollar received.”
Mr. Halevi travelled to Washington after his subcommittee held hearings on whether Israel should reduce its dependency on the US in anticipation of the United States potentially using aid to pressure Israel.
Aid leads to “pressure on Israel over all the years on our vital interests. You get money, so you need to do this and this and this,” Mr. Halevi said in an interview with Jewish Insider.
Mr. Halevi’s concern has been magnified with Israeli government and military lawyers increasingly worried that authorities could arrest or question officers and soldiers who served in Gaza and personnel of defence contractors aiding the war effort on suspicion of having committed war crimes when travelling abroad.
In the latest such incident, Polish authorities last week questioned representatives of Israeli military contractors attending a defence exposition after a journalist complained that Elbit Systems and Rafael Advanced Defence Systems were involved in the Gaza war.
In an even starker move, Israeli military lawyers have reportedly advised combat units not to facilitate the departure from Gaza of Palestinians for non-medical reasons to avoid being accused of complicity in war crimes.
The advice highlights the Israeli military command’s questioning of the government’s declared policy of encouraging Palestinians to leave Gaza and doubts about plans to occupy depopulated areas of the Strip, starting with Gaza City.
Mr. Netanyahu signalled his opposition to a restructuring of the US-Israel relationship at the time of Mr. Halevi's visit to Washington and the publication of the Heritage roadmap.
However, in a U-turn six months later, Mr. Leiter acknowledged this month that the nature of the US-Israeli relationship could change and, for all practical purposes, endorsed Mr. Halevi's proposition.
Mr. Leiter's acknowledgement came as the United States and Israel began discussing a follow-up to the ten-year Memorandum of Understanding between the two countries, which is set to expire in 2028. The memorandum guarantees Israel US$3.8 billion a year in US defence support.
The prospect of a restructuring of US-Israeli military relations may be one reason why the United States is investing hundreds of millions of dollars in upgrading Israeli military facilities to accommodate new refuelling aircraft and helicopters, as well as a new headquarters for the Shayelet 13 naval commando unit and ammunition storage sites.
“Maybe we’ll change the nature (of the MOU), where there will be greater joint research and development between our two countries, rather than relying on American weapons,” Mr. Leiter said.
The Heritage roadmap, entitled ‘From Special Relationship to Strategic Partnership,’ developed with input from Israel's far-right Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, suggests that the United States “transition its military financing of arms procurements to direct military sales to Israel.”
The United States and Israel would achieve this by increasing the memorandum‘s annual US$3.8 billion in US assistance to Israel to US$4 billion, while reducing it by $250 million each year starting from 2029 until 2047, when the aid would cease.
At the same time, Israel would be required to increase its purchases of US defence equipment by $250 million per year, starting in 2029.
Long a proponent of US aid, Mr. Netanyahu has since March warmed to the notion of a paradigm shift in the US-Israel military relationship.
Mr. Netanyahu first signalled a shift in his thinking in May by declaring that “we will need to wean ourselves off American military aid.”
Conscious that his conduct of the Gaza war has turned significant segments of US public opinion across the aisle against Israel, including influential figures in Mr. Trump's Make America Great Again support base, Mr. Netanyahu hopes that a restructured relationship will project the Jewish state as an invaluable asset.
“Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens’ orbit is not America First; it’s Israel and Jews last. America First is fine. We don’t have an issue with that. We put Israel first, America puts America first … I think it’s obvious and elemental. With the isolationist and conspiratorial right, Israel is always wrong, and the Jews are always behind everything that’s wrong,” Mr. Leiter said.
Two prominent Make America Great Again, Mr. Carlson and Ms. Owens, known for her anti-Semitism, alongside figures such as Steve Bannon, Mr. Trump’s former strategic affairs advisor, have increasingly criticised Israel and its relations with the United States.
Mr. Trump recently acknowledged Israel’s increasingly tarnished image when he noted that “Israel was the strongest lobby (in Washington) I’ve ever seen. They had total control over Congress, and now they don’t, you know, I’m a little surprised to see that… They’re gonna have to get that war over with, but it is hurting Israel. There’s no question about it. They may be winning the war, but they’re not winning the world of public relations,” Mr. Trump said.
Quoting then US Air Force intelligence chief Gen. George F. Keegan as saying in 1986 that Israeli intelligence was worth “five CIAs,” Mr. Leiter said in his recent interview, “You know how much that would cost. The level of cooperation we have at this point between our intelligence communities is very, very, very deep and wide. We provide a tremendous service to the United States’ interests in the Middle East.”
Mr. Leiter asserted that Israel’s wars in the last two years against Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Yemeni Houthis, and Iran had reduced the threat to moderate Arab states and created new “geopolitical realities” that justified a change in the US-Israeli defence relationship.
“That enables the United States to rely more on a collective between Israel and its neighbours and have less of an American footprint in the Middle East. Therefore, the nature of any MOU or collaborative effort is going to change,” Mr. Leiter said.
[Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, ]()The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.
