Hello everyone,

I've been playing around with some numbers and wanted to share the idea (maybe someone will correct me if I'm wrong).

If we think of a scenario where BTC was the only global money, we can use the equation of exchange:

M \times V = P \times Y

Where:

= money in circulation (BTC × price).

= velocity of money (how many times it rotates per year).

= World nominal GDP.

Global nominal GDP today is around USD 113–114 trillion (IMF 2025).

The useful supply of BTC is ~18 million (discounting those that have been lost).

So, solving:

\text{BTC Price} = \frac{GDP_{\text{world}}}{V \times 18,000,000}

If we take typical values ​​of (between 3 and 6), it gives us a range:

V = 3 → ~2.1M USD/BTC

V = 4 → ~1.6M USD/BTC

V = 5 → ~1.3M USD/BTC

V = 6 → ~1.0 M USD/BTC

That is, for BTC to cover the global money function and “replicate” the current money supply, it would need a value in the range of ~1–2 million USD per BTC (perhaps up to 3–4 million if we use a lower money velocity or consider lost BTC).

Obviously, this calculation is theoretical and simplified:

It does not contemplate future GDP growth.

It does not contemplate that States will continue printing fiat currency in the meantime → therefore the “equilibrium price” would move higher over time.

It also does not consider strategic reserves, savings, immobilized BTC, or credit dynamics that could modify the speed.

The intention is to have a more or less well-founded idea of ​​what the BTC ceiling may be until it stabilizes and enters a stage of slow delation that makes it more useful as cash and not so much as a speculative asset or reserve of value.

Does this reasoning make sense or am I missing something key?

I’m in Switzerland and I’ve been trying out different platforms to buy BTC. The issue I keep running into is that if I deposit CHF, I first need to convert to USD/EUR, and then to BTC. By the time both conversions are done, I’m losing around 5% to 10% just in fees, which feels like a total rip-off.

Is there a better way to go from CHF → BTC without bleeding so much on conversion fees? Maybe I’m missing something obvious, or just using the wrong platforms. Any idea on the right way and platform to use?

Would it not be in the best interest of the spam facilitating miners to keep things as they are? That way they can continue to have direct submission and payments funneled to them rather than spammers being able to broadcast to any miner running on the future core update?

It seems like if I were MARA, etc, and I wanted to keep getting pepe jpegs with 4-5 digit fees, I would want the system to be as annoying as possible on a broad scope, so I was one of the only games in town to add it to the blockchain.

Am I missing something here?

Everybody said I was crazy but now look. I'm wondering if I should do the same with the rest of my BTC. I'm thinking ETH is going to be the real mover for the rest of the year. Thoughts?

Why does Bitcoin seemingly move in unison with the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500? Has it always been this way? Maybe I just hadn’t noticed? Or, has the nature of Bitcoin changed? Is Bitcoin no longer the independent store of value it once was? I hope it still is.

Mods: I tried to post this in r/Bitcoin but they deleted it, saying this had already been posted. I am sure it has been asked and answered, likely there, here, or elsewhere. But, I looked and didn’t find it asked or answered. I would really like an answer to this question, so I hope the post is allowed here.

What if people targeted the biggest HODLers of BTC for assassination to drive the price up to astronomical levels?

Think about it, if the top 50 BTC holders are wiped at, the price will sky rocket to unimaginable levels.

I think the only question is, do the retail and institutional investors believe that $MSTR has real value based on its holdings and the value of $BTC? It feels as if the entire sentiment is waining primarlriy based on $MSTR bitcoin purchase process not impacting the price of $BTC anymore.

Title

glassnode just dropped some analysis that has me thinking about where we are in this cycle. the data is pointing to bitcoin being in a historically late phase right now.

the numbers:

bitcoin went from $15,500 in november 2022 to $124,500 last week - that's a 700% rally. when you compare this timing to previous cycles, we're apparently about 2-3 months away from where past cycle tops occurred.

currently 91% of all bitcoin is in profit and has been above the +1 standard deviation band for 273 days. that's the second longest stretch on record, only behind the 2015-2018 cycle that hit 335 days.

profit taking patterns:

long-term holders (people who held for 155+ days) have been taking profits at levels comparable to previous euphoric phases. this kind of selling pressure typically happens near cycle tops.

rekt capital says if bitcoin follows historical halving cycles, the peak would be mid-september to mid-october 2025. that's literally 1-2 months away.

current price action:

bitcoin got rejected at $114,000 yesterday after bouncing from $112,000 support. if we lose that $110,000-$112,000 zone, analysts are saying we could drop back into the $90,000-$100,000 range pretty quickly.

what this means:

look, nobody knows exactly when tops happen until after they're done. but when you have:

700% gains from cycle lows

91% of supply in profit for 273 days straight

long-term holders selling at euphoric levels

price getting rejected at key resistance

it starts looking like we might be closer to the end than the beginning of this run.

my take:

this doesn't mean bitcoin crashes tomorrow. we could still push higher and extend this cycle. but the risk/reward is definitely shifting. if you've been riding this from the lows, maybe consider taking some profits. if you are taking profits, make sure you're tracking everything properly for tax season. tools like awaken.tax can help you stay on top of the reporting side while you focus on the trading decisions.

the $110,000-$112,000 zone is probably make or break right now. hold that and we might get another push higher. lose it and things could get interesting fast.

anyone else feeling like we're getting close to decision time here?