r/Bolehland • u/ExistingPanda5151 • 1d ago
Are we going down the same path? ECRL is CCCC project right?
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u/kimi_rules Crazy Car and Tech Enthusiast 1d ago
It's a train to the East Coast and we don't make much money from operating trains. So long as the train runs, even if it charges RM100 per trip, it's still worth it than driving 6+ hours.
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u/ExistingPanda5151 1d ago
Ok so i thought its passenger. Seems like reasonable cash flow so can pay the debt off i guess
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u/kimi_rules Crazy Car and Tech Enthusiast 1d ago
Yeah, it works as cargo trains as well. Perodua for example will be heavily utilizing the ECRL to manage their parts warehouse in Kuantan. It has a lot of potential uses and will definitely see a lot of profits in the short and long term.
One way to look at mega-projects like this is to study how controversial the PLUS highway was 30 years ago. Look at it now and it basically formed the backbone of Malaysia highway system.
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u/forcebubble menjadi insan baik atau buruk itu adalah pilihan 1d ago
Yeah. Infrastructure projects are almost always derided as a waste of public funds until they are not, often for reasons that are more political than practical. Capacity planning is a part of the full picture when it comes to development — it is bad planning to only mitigate a problem when it becomes one, at the same time incurring more costs with inflation.
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u/monister-humk 1d ago
not just backbone of highway system. There's a lot of town/city benefit from it. Seremban, Nilai, Rawang, Tanjung Malim and Banting (Gamuda Cove) wont be what they are now without PLUS.
Infra projects are not meant to be profit making. The main focus would be connectivity and boosting the socio economy of the locations that is connected by it. Not saying that it can't make profit though.
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u/kimi_rules Crazy Car and Tech Enthusiast 23h ago
Exactly, and the best part about PLUS it spawned one of the best payment method/system in the world, TnG. Most countries don't even have the same level of integration we have with TnG today, we certainly have come a long way.
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u/Sufficient_Abies4568 9h ago
What you say makes sense if it was along a busy corridor, like JB through KL and Penang. This project is bound to be a failure.
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u/Free-Initiative7508 1d ago
Most country dont make money off public transport. It is more of a welfare & social benefit for its people
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u/Electronic-Contact15 1d ago
ECRL is mostly freight transport, no? Completely different scenario.
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u/Various_Reaction8348 1d ago
We don't make money with KTM also.. ECRL will just make the gov debt go higher.. KTM even have strategic port/cement industry/WH.. Still cannot profit.. Now with ECRL, need more than KTM to operate due to higher speed.. Just see the ERL..
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u/Internally_me 18h ago
Yes we can.. Mandate during public holidays all long range cargo (multiple state journeys) go through rail, except maybe chemicals and emergency medical, and cold logistics.. Easy money, and people would actually support
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u/gregyong I got a 2inch dick 1d ago
ECRL is a freight rail from Kuantan to Port Klang.
Kuantan to Kota Bharu is just CSR
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u/Far_Spare6201 1d ago
CSR for corporates. This is more in line of the government doing their fucking job.
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u/ExistingPanda5151 1d ago
How about the debt?
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u/GanacheAvailable5111 1d ago
Back in the 2000s and early 2010s, KTMB’s freight side was actually making money, especially around 2012–2013 when there was strong demand for stuff like cement, petroleum, palm oil, and containers. The problem was the passenger side even with more people taking the train, fares were kept low by the government, while costs like staff, fuel, and maintenance kept piling up, so it kept losing money and cancelled out whatever profit freight made. Because of this, the government started pushing to split freight from passenger under the Railway Assets Corporation (RAC), since freight clearly had business potential, while passenger services were more like a public service that would always need subsidies.
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u/cicak_cobain 21h ago
Duk ratip debt debt debt kau ni, sume negara ada debt hawau, bezanya tinggi atau rendah je, ECRL memang keperluan, bukan untuk rakyat sahaja but also economy negara
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u/ExistingPanda5151 21h ago
Bukan bincang topik pasal negara ada hutang atau tak ada hutang ye, sila baca konteks dan cuba lagi.
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u/cicak_cobain 21h ago
Aku literally bincang based on your context at the end bro, ECONOMY
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u/ExistingPanda5151 20h ago
Yelah, masalah nya poin kau tu pengetahuan umum. Semua negara ada hutang tu budak darjah 5 pun tahu. Tak payah nak cakap pun tak pe orang tahu.
Yang aku nak tahu sekarang ni, boleh bayar atau tak supaya tak jdi macam Indonesia.
Ape kena mengena poin surface level knowledge engkau dengan persoalan aku.
Paham tak?
Aku tanya "Hutang ni kita mampu nak bayar tak?"
Engkau jawab "semua negara ada hutang, tinggi rendah je".
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u/cicak_cobain 20h ago
Jeez i answered ur question already, “ECRL memang keperluan”, thats why dia boleh cover debt more than indonesia. Why? Because ECRL memang in demand
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u/ExistingPanda5151 20h ago
Seriously?
Again, jawapan macam ni budak sekolah pun boleh tulis. Tak payah nak petik.
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u/Slight_Ad_8568 15h ago
bruh, if you drive your car to work. your car doesn't make money. you lose money on it, you need to maintain it. but your car helps you get to work and your work pays you.
you can get to work without your car but it's better, faster, more comfortable. all this helps you choose a better job that can be farther, you won't suffer in adverse weather, you're fresher when you get to work.
similar to the ECRL la. the earnings come from elsewhere. not directly from the service.
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u/ExistingPanda5151 15h ago
I'm not talking about profit/losses of ECRL.
Im talking about DEBT REPAYMENT CAPACITY so that we won't default.
I'm don't care if ECRL make money or not, I'm asking are we going to default.
Let me repeat.
I AM NOT ASKING IF ECRL IS PROFITABLE OR NOT.
I AM ASKING IF WE CAN PAY IT BACK SO IT WON'T DEFAULT.
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u/madgenius908 1d ago
I think the profit will at least cover the operating cost. The debt however, is a different story. But i’m confident that it wont be same as indonesia
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u/OOOshafiqOOO003 Sata Andagi 21h ago
Cmon, such mentions of debt would make things go shit like what LGE did with LRT 3
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u/tideswithme 1d ago
If not mistaken even Prasana is operating at loss. Atok got money, why worry /S
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u/Playful_Landscape884 23h ago
The plan was to go to Surabaya, around 650km away. But they only got until Bandung, which is only 140km away. 140 km is too short for HSR and there’s a reason why it’s not turning a profit.
In Malaysia context, having HSR between KL and SG makes sense because it’s connecting two of the richest cities in SEA at the optimal distance of around 350km.
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u/Ok_Bluebird4548 5h ago edited 4h ago
Richest city alone is not enough. You need enough ridership. For context when the Shinkansen is launched, Tokyo metro already had 18 million population while Osaka metro had 10 million.
Compared to Kl and Singapore current is not even near to 1960s Tokyo and Osaka.
Anyway most people know the Indonesia HSR is a vanity project to make Jokowi look good. His own transport minister back then questioned the viability of HSR as he preferred they invest on improving the existing rail infrastructure.
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u/AkamiMaguro 1d ago
The thing with Whoosh is it's currently only Jakarta to Bandung 148km and the stations are so far away from the city centre, you'd actually get to Bandung quicker just taking the conventional KAI trains. Until they extend it to Surabaya, they are unlikely to see a massive shift in ridership.
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u/PigsAlsoCanFly BabiTerbang 🐖🪽 23h ago
Poor stations planning..
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u/AkamiMaguro 22h ago
Not really. HSR do need their tracks to be as straight as possible, so usually they are situated a bit further away from the city. The thing is Indonesia doesn't have the budget to complete the line across Java, so they can't really reap the full benefits of having a HSR. It's mostly just tourists and YouTubers going for the wow factor. If I'm going to Bandung I'd still take the KAI Eksecutif option. Cheaper and very comfortable, departs from the city centre.
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u/FormalFix9019 1d ago
Kalau tak buat market research elok2 jadilah macam ni. Lagipon Indonesia negara darul rasuah, apa nak heran.
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u/Mann_Tap 21h ago
From my view, both the ruling class and the common masses are equally bad. One is full of greedy leeches the other is full of destructive violent airheads
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u/princeofpirate 1d ago
Transportation company is always at losses. The benefit is not in profit, but the growth generated by the ease of transportation. All public transportation in the world is heavily subsidized by the tax money.
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u/Naeemo960 23h ago
Growth needs to be driven by population as well. Our population growth is slowing down. Economic contribution by big projects like this will also be limited because of it. Best bet is they’ll break even, but don’t expect Kuantan to radically change economically within the next decade.
But don’t get me wrong, I like new toys to play with in the country.
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u/Beginning_Month_1845 feet pics collector 23h ago
Nope, even some of the busiest subway like the New York Subway doesn’t make profit. Subways aren’t designed to make profit, but to support the economy indirectly by giving long term indirect returns given by these convenience, same goes for roads, bridges, where the government rarely ever make full returns
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u/Naeemo960 22h ago
New york subways are a prime example of what happens when public transport doesn’t make profit. It is a shit subway, not upgraded, not maintained, and not expanded. Pray our LRTs and MRTs don’t become that.
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u/OOOshafiqOOO003 Sata Andagi 21h ago
Simple solution is that dont see it as a burden, instead see it as strategic asset like we did in Malaysia. Thats what sets us apart from USA
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u/Naeemo960 21h ago
All Im saying is that strategic assets and white elephants are separated by a very thin line. The ECRL didnt have a good business proposal from what I recall. Economic studies on the other hand are very rose tinted and subject to govt agendas.
RM80bil investment with RM2bil operating cost for 4 mil passengers and 9mil ton cargo don’t really sound all that promising, or feasible to deliver. KTMB goes through manufacturing powerhouses and even they didnt have that much volume. Especially since the states ECRL is servicing aren’t known as manufacturing powerhouses and struggles to get FDI. Plus the govts and populace’s growing anti-foreign worker sentiments don’t really help their cases.
Not to mention, the economic value for this project was in cargo from manufacturing, yet till now there haven’t really been massive uptick in investment in most of the states targeted for this.
Plus, everyone is relying on analysis made by team JIBBY for this, so take that as you will.
Not to be a downer, but the numbers aren’t really all that promising. Even potential economic value is not all that promising (the states have very low potential) They’d be better off spending the money making 5 new highways.
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u/princeofpirate 20h ago
I think the value on the East Coast is the port in Kuantan. It bypasses the congested straits. I guess they are banking on that.
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u/OOOshafiqOOO003 Sata Andagi 20h ago
even if it is not going to be useful now, it is going to be useful later.
also, more highways? imagine the fuel consumption compared to the more compact train tracks
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u/Naeemo960 17h ago
Idk man, the growth indicators aren’t looking too good. But what do I know, Jibby govt probably did a deep analysis and arrived to a well thought out plan 😂😂😂
Plus the highway comparison is just to show how RM80bil can be better spent on lower hanging fruit that generates better economic return.
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u/GuaSukaStarfruit 8h ago
Hong Kong subway makes a lot of profit btw
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u/Beginning_Month_1845 feet pics collector 7h ago
That’s because Hong Kong subway has a special relationship with their govt where they are given the land above the subways to develop and build malls, in which they have built like 13 malls.
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u/TowkeyMeriam 1d ago
From the screenshot it seems that these companies are related to high speed rail projects?
Like others mentioned the ECRL is mainly freight, so the bulk of the traffic should cover for the operating costs and probably generate some profits. How much is anybody's guess but I think it should be significant as it cuts the transit time from East to West quite significantly ( ships from China offload their cargo at Kuantan and then the trains will take over to Port Klang and vice-versa).
High speed rail is an extremely pricey item, in both operations and maintenance. The train's body has to be light, the tracks have to be very straight and level and IIRC the high speed lines are single type use only, as in only high speed trains area allowed to run on it. So unless you have high ridership numbers and your customers (as in the citizens, not the tourists) are able to afford the tickets the high speed rail operator will probably run into deficit quickly without major support from the state (i.e the gov). I think even in Japan where high speed rail usage is quite high throughout the country, the rail operators still receive state aid, and I believe businesses are encouraged to use the Shinkansen for business travel (as opposed to flights, for ex).
IIRC when our gov announced that the high speed rail will be a private affair the Japanese dropped out of the bid. Their reasoning was that the running an high speed rail service is impractical without state support.
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u/Superb_Ratio6484 16h ago
Look at it this way. If ECRL can reduce road traffic until there's barely any traffic jam during festival seasons and long holiday, imagine the savings the gov makes from not subsidising petrol for people to get stuck in a traffic jam back to their home town. Less road accidents, less traffic jam, less time wasted on the road, more productivity.
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u/No_Entrance_8069 23h ago
ECRL makes much more sense though, it's meant largely for commercial purpose and it's dab straight through commercial path and part of Belt and Road Initiative. It already has pre-booked "passengers". Its existence will also greatly ease shipment by lorries, which would make us road users happier, won't it? Ship can simply offload at Kuantan and get the containers split to Malaysia and/or move on straight to Port Klang for further shipment by sea. And vice versa.
As for this Whoosh project.. well.. Indonesia is known to go big and grand ahead of times so this is kind of expected. A project like this might be financially viable in a decade or so but their leaders like to show off RIGHT NOW and make their name. Takpe, duit takde no problem, pinjam ngan abang besar. Corruption is also still high, this project was known for a lot of cost overruns. The overruns was also paid by big bro but with much higher interest. So yeah, cannot help, this project had a lot of hoops to jump through.
IMO it may still be manageable though, they need about 30% more daily passengers to break even, may be doable if tourism ministry do their job. Let's hope for the best for the sake of our bro and sis in Indonesia.
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u/Right_Cod1325 21h ago
jakarta failed because the train is mainly for tourism. setakat jakarta-bandung. In the early days there were many people due to the indos' excitement. after the hype subsides, the only ones who used the train are tourists, be it locals or foreigners.
ecrl in theory should not be as worse as jakarta since we actually want to use the trains and tracks to harbour goods from west to east, along with people using it for travels.
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u/GuyfromKK 14h ago
I read somewhere that the original plan was for final connection to Surabaya which is more viable. So, that would still be in the plan.
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u/amirulez 18h ago
Public transport is not expected to make money. If they aim to make money, people won’t get to paid few ringgit ticket price.
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u/ExistingPanda5151 18h ago
I am asking about debt repayment capacity so we don't default, i didn't even mention profit.
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u/Beginning_Month_1845 feet pics collector 23h ago
Public transports don’t make money, they are suppose to give returns in a long term from elsewhere, like taxes from jobs or created or directly or indirectly due to existence of MRT
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u/Dear_Translator_9768 15h ago
ECRL is to connect Port Klang to Kuantan Port and other towns and cities in the East Coast and Hulu Selangor.
Normal folks won't try it right away for the first few years due to car habit/dependency but companies and industries will be the first to benefit from this right away.
This is inline with Selangor's vision to make Serendah and Puncak Alam as logistic hubs for the manufacturers in Rawang and Puncak Alam.
We should be optimistic.
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u/sentinelbub 14h ago
Here’s hoping that they get the first-mile and last-mile connectivity correct.
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u/KiuluGuy 3h ago
Nope, even chicken lays an egg, they east coast ppl wanna go home, the weekend jem at Bentong - gombak is unbearable but still ongoing, plus lotsa long holidays and good foods and lovers hideaway . Ridership will be crazier than west coast car addicts
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u/signofdacreator You keluar you tak suka 3h ago
for me its an essenstial mode of transport especially for tourists considering its quite a distance from KLIA/LCCT to KL city center. sure, its not jam packed all the time, but considering its not as frequent as LRT in peak hours, plus there's also interconnected cities i.e you can take ERL from Putrajaya / BTS too, so please keep ECRL.
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u/Darkchaser 1d ago
Quick view on the numbers. Cost is 75bilion, 85% of which is funded through a loan from China Exim Bank at 3.25% interest on a 20 year term
That comes to an annual repayment of about RM5.3 billion.
1) To cover just repayment of the China bank loan, ECRL needs to make 5.3 billion annually or 430 million per month.
2) Let's say that 50% of that comes from public transport and 50% is from commercial, public transport needs to generate 215 million per month
3) If avg ticket is 100, you'd need a monthly ridership of 2.15 million
This is just to cover the China bank loan, excluding covering operating costs and paying back any of the other 15% sukuk financing options.
So is a monthly ridership of 2.15million feasible? Somebody with better view on East Malaysia population/trends maybe can give insight
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u/Appropriate-Sir8241 22h ago
It is not a passenger train. Its for freight and cargo.
You need to amend your calculation to include freight as well.
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u/Darkchaser 22h ago
My point #2 already made assumption that 50% revenue will be coming from commercial, which is freight and cargo. 50/50 is just a safe assumption as I have no idea what the actual split would be. Maybe it is only 30% from passengers in which case the ridership required will be significantly lesser.
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u/OOOshafiqOOO003 Sata Andagi 21h ago
Looking at MRT 1 with more than 30 million ridership (subsidised), not even considering what freight transport offers yet. More than enough, its a strategic investment because our government, despite all the mishaps are still quite smart on managing thr country
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u/vdfscg 1d ago
Its a public transport that suppose to benefit the rakyat, not a profit making tool