r/Browns • u/1OptimisticPrime Dare to be Stupid & Orange Pants Save Lives • 21h ago
The Jake Moody blunder was no anomaly: Why highly drafted kickers fail so often
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6621651/2025/09/12/jake-moody-49ers-nfl-kickers/Young kickers usually struggle in the NFL. Kickers who are drafted rarely remain with their original team.
And the select few drafted early, well, they often have the roughest time of all.
Jake Moody’s brief, bumpy stint with the San Francisco 49ers — the 2023 third-round pick was waived this week after an uneven Week 1 performance in Seattle — shouldn’t be a surprise. In fact, as thorny as his NFL introduction was, it went more smoothly than any of his highly drafted peers’ over the last decade.
Roberto Aguayo, taken in the second round (No. 59) by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2016, was cut before his second season, after he finished last in the league in field goal percentage and was 4-of-11 on kicks of 40 yards or longer as a rookie. The whiff was so conspicuous that teams shied away from taking kickers as early as even the fourth round until 2022, when the Cleveland Browns drafted Cade York at No. 124. He was also cut after one season and is currently a free agent.
Then came Moody, who every special teams expert agreed was the best prospect in recent memory.
Unlike Aguayo, a Florida native who kicked at Florida State, Moody grew up kicking off frozen fields in Michigan, then became a high-pressure ace at the University of Michigan. Former Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh referred to the kicker as “Money Moody” and called him “a Michigan legend.” He was the rare youngster with a talented leg and a steely disposition. Wind, weather, hostile crowds, long-distance kicks — you couldn’t faze him, even when he first arrived on campus.
“You don’t see a freshman kicker just come in and be good, which I think bodes well,” Harbaugh said in 2023. “Because you don’t see a lot of rookie kickers in the NFL be real good. It usually takes some time. There’s some history and evidence here that says Jake’s gonna be good right away.”
Even Moody’s rare calm, however, was no match for the NFL. After going a respectable 21-of-25 on field goals as a rookie, he struggled in the back half of the 2024 season, which the 49ers said was because they allowed him to return too quickly from a severe Week 5 high-ankle sprain. Moody was wobbly in the recent preseason, then clanged a 27-yard attempt off the left upright in a tight game Sunday in Seattle.
“When it gets to that point, you can see it affecting him from a mental (standpoint),” coach Kyle Shanahan said Wednesday. “Then you don’t have much choice. You’ve got to move on.”
There's more to read if you click
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u/spacemanspiff888 9h ago
So Sebastian Janikowski was very much the exception, is what I'm getting from this.
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u/hockey17jp 21h ago
I’m to le-Smyzt to quit. This guy is going to turn it around. Get this Jake Moody doomerism off the sub!
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u/1OptimisticPrime Dare to be Stupid & Orange Pants Save Lives 21h ago
Too...
It's a comprehensive article, not a Moody job application
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u/hockey17jp 21h ago
Whatever. Rookies usually suck. Phil Dawson turned it around so will 25. Fuck it, go Browns
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u/LawfulNeutered 20h ago
Is it just random? Or is there some way to evaluate it that the NFL can't figure out?
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u/Jambatlivesbaby 17h ago
I don't think it's possible to evaluate it as it's almost purely mental. If you look at the college landscape and secondary leagues, they are completely loaded with kickers capable of 50-yard-kicks and repeated, high percentage averages. The stress and doubt of repeated failure is something I just don't think there is any way to properly scout and predict how a player is going to react.
Blair Walsh is the perfect example. An All-Pro kicker who had hit all but around three kicks under 40 in his career, was perfect in the playoffs, and had only missed two extra points in college and the pros. And then he shanked a 27 yarder in the playoffs and was out of the league in two years I believe, when he missed half of his xp attempts and was shanking 20-yard FG tries.
Dude crumbled from one missed kick after years of college and NFL domination. There's just no predicting it imo.
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u/Normal_Tax3999 12h ago
Right. There are similar laments related to difficulty evaluating and predicting other specialized positions in sports. Especially goaltenders in the NHL. Where there is so little carryover from one episode to the next.
Successful Junior or NCAA careers may/may not translate. Development is uneven and may or may not continue in a linear fashion.
NHL talent evaluators and observers get stuck with the same conundrum. For every Lunduist or Roy (who are just awesome for a 15 year stretch) ie: Vinatieri or Dawson in kicker terms, there are guys who kill it for a season or a season and a half then completely disintegrate.
It seems that the most consistent strategy is to be willing to switch on a dime until you catch lightning in a bottle then ride that until you reengage the swapping
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u/mat_bambang 17h ago
kickers are tougher to evaluate in the pros, big legs are everywhere but the mental hurdle is an entirely different thing.
you can see content creator like Deestroying kick on youtube and he's dropping nukes from wherever. switch it into game-time situation, UFL week 3 brahmas @ michigan 23-26, 3s to tie the game in ford field (dome) in front of 11k people and he shanked it nowhere from 53.
the last 10 groza winners, only fairbairn stuck with HOU forever, matt gay kept a solid career but he just missed 2/3 in GB this thursday. the three best kickers in the league rn are an MLS draft bust (aubrey), a brick salesman who never kicked a FG in college (bates), and a guy who lost to fat randy in HOU (boswell).
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u/PatientlyAnxious9 20h ago
It is impossible to simulate a game winning FG in a NFL stadium with your livelihood on the line. Even in college, these guys are barely getting paid and their leash is much longer because of college expectations.
NFL expectations are: Make every single FG with the stakes doubled and your job at risk if you miss a few.
Its a impossible position to evaluate because of the mental aspect and unknown, which is why spending a draft pick on one is nothing more than a dart toss.
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u/JuliusDiamond GPODAWUND 17h ago
Teams drafting a kicker hoping they're Janikowski but essentially just end up with someone who turns into Ray Finkle. Talk about the crying game.
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u/russelljcleveland 13h ago
To be fair, the laces were in. It’s really Marino’s fault.
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u/Preferential 6h ago
It gets lost that Finkle was competent enough to succeed at two unrelated career paths, which I find impressive.
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u/Milojbloom 11h ago
I remember Dustin Fix going nuts when the Browns drafted York in the 4th round
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u/Mistborn19 1h ago
I wonder what it's like to be a legend on a team with a documented history of cheating.
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u/Raccoonsrlilbandits era ended 20h ago
Honestly I follow rec specs on tik tok give me that guy
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u/hockey17jp 20h ago
He was banging 60 yarders in that video earlier, worth a camp invite if Smyzt has a rough outing on Sunday
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u/Raccoonsrlilbandits era ended 20h ago
Honestly surprised he hasn’t gotten one from someone. I know his flame out in Indy wasn’t great but pretty sure he was Also hurt
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u/ozymandais13 20h ago
One wonders if you can practice with people screaming shit at you , like windy stadium bad conditions a bar to simulate the line giving up blocking assignments idk
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u/walkaroundmoney 21h ago
Most of your teammates don’t consider you a real player, they’re now professionals where the team’s performance might have implications on their livelihood, and there’s a lot more situations in the NFL where a miss will be the reason for a loss.
It’s a lot more of a pressure cooker than even a P5 program can prepare you for.