Retooled Mid-August Tier List

[u/Critical-Mango-341]

First, I want to thank everyone who contributed to the discussion on my last post. You provided exactly what I was looking for, and (mostly) only indirectly insulted my intelligence! I appreciate everyone who engaged.

Secondly, I noticed people getting a little insulted by having something like "Tier 4" next to their teams' name, even though Tier 4 meant you were somewhere between 19-26. This time, I'm going to name each tier.

Next, a tiny bit about my method. Every opinion at this point in the offseason is very hypothetical, so I tried to avoid preseason top 25 lists and rather rely on what little objective data I could find. That data was basically limited to Barttorvik, particularly the "Talent" and "Returning Possession Minutes" metrics. I put a few of the Torvik metrics together to assess what I call "RPM (returning possession minutes) Quality," which takes into account the returning possession minutes along with how successful the team was last year (returning a bunch of scrubs doesn't help tremendously). Then, I tried to take into account other roster metrics as well, such as what Evanmiya has made available in an effort to arrive at some type of unbiased talent level rank. After that, I had to use more subjective analysis. Finally, I took the analysis provided in the last post of people making the case for their own teams. I threw it all together, and the outcome is below. (Also, I tried to include every team who was represented in the post from Tuesday. Sorry if I left anyone out!)

First, some honorable mention categories:

Will Probably Crack the Top 25 At Some Point, But I Can't Stand Watching Buzz Williams-Coached Basketball

Maryland

The fans presented some good arguments, and Buzz usually has good teams. I'm also glad he went to another conference.

Distressed Asset Teams Making a Jump

NC State, Texas, UVA, VA Tech, WVU

I really think NC State and Texas have the talent and coaches to come out of nowhere, similar to other struggling power teams in the past who make a coaching upgrade and all the sudden grab a top 5 seed in the tournament. UVA, VA Tech, and WVU are here because they had fans who contributed to the conversation in the last post. Also, you never know...

Now, for the 25 teams I would consider the best in the country:

Solid Programs Who Lost A Lot But Get the Benefit of the Doubt

Auburn, Iowa St, Creighton, Kansas, Arizona, Gonzaga, Michigan St, Wisconsin, San Diego St.

These nine teams would be 17-25, in some order, if I did a traditional preseason ranking. All of these teams are losing foundational pieces to their rosters, but their coaches/programs have earned the benefit of the doubt regarding their ability to rebuild and field a competitive team, year in and year out. You could make a case to leave some of these teams out of the preseason top 25 altogether if you really wanted to, but they would probably just wind up back in the real thing for the majority of the season anyway. Might as well get ahead of it.

Could Be Too High or Too Low

Illinois, Louisville, Alabama, Arkansas, UCLA, Tennessee

These teams would be 11-16 in a traditional ranking, in some order. I could imagine each of these teams winding up in the top 10, or perhaps underachieving. I hate that these words are leaving my mouth, but Tennessee is probably the surest bet for the regular season in this group, since Rick Barnes has shown he puts together top 5-15 squads nearly every season. Yuck. Also, Louisville fans, I didn't forget you this time!

Wouldn't Be Surprised If They End Up Top Tier

Michigan, Texas Tech, St. John’s, Duke, UK, BYU

These would be teams 5-10, in some order, in a traditional ranking. All of these teams (with the strange exception of Texas Tech) have rosters that Torvik's metrics really, really love. Couple that with coaches who have proven they can maximize the talent on the roster through the regular season, and I wouldn't be surprised to see any of these teams break into to the 1-seed conversation at the end of the season. I don't know why Torvik doesn't like TT's roster, but I really think with a returning JT Toppin that the Red Raiders could really surprise people this year. I haven't looked, but I bet they don't get a lot of top 10 love in other preseason rankings.

Title Favorites

Houston, Florida, Purdue, UConn

First of all, thanks to the Purdue fans (who apparently make up 90% of this board) who brought great perspective to the conversation and refrained from straight up attacking me for leaving them out of the top tier in the last iteration. You all convinced me that they should be included in the top 4. These four teams seem to be built for the modern era:

1. Returning key pieces from good teams (UConn was on a roll towards the end of the season)

2. Adding nice pieces that fit what they want to accomplish, rather than just grabbing any transfer/HS recruit with an awesome number by their name

3. Solid, proven coaching that you know can take you far in March

If I absolutely had to pick a favorite from this group, I would be most comfortable picking Houston. While Purdue is returning a lot from a good team last year, the defensive issues need to be proven to be fixed before I feel comfortable giving them #1 status. Florida returning their beast of a frontcourt is great and you couldn't ask for a better portal replacement for Clayton than Boogie Fland, but they still lost Walter Clayton and the rest of their backcourt. This UConn core still needs to prove consistency. Houston just seems to have the least flaws at the moment.

Thanks again for all who contributed and resisted the urge to flame me last time!

[u/Travbowman]

I think that's fair on Purdue. Obviously a top 10 team but hard to call them a title favorite until they prove they're a top 20 defense.

[u/DavidBenAkiva → u/Travbowman]

This is the main question I have about Purdue and UConn. Both would need to improve a lot on that end.

[u/clarkaj24 → u/DavidBenAkiva]

The assumption is that they will improve if they do nothing else other than getting Jacobsen back. The devil’s advocate in me says that Jacobsen is not a proven commodity. I think he’ll be good but we don’t have much data to go on right now.

[u/Historical_Low4458]

KU falls into the category of "addition by subtraction."

[u/TonyWilliams03 → u/Historical_Low4458]

The cancerous tumor has been removed.

[u/Best_Country_8137]

Can’t argue with the new tier name for my team.

Where’s BYU? They’re loaded with $ and talent and well coached. Wouldn’t be surprised if they end up being top tier. Also wouldn’t be too surprised if they don’t mesh well and disappoint

[u/Critical-Mango-341 → u/Best_Country_8137]

Crap, I left them off! They're supposed to be Wouldn't Be Surprised If They End Up Top Tier. Gotta add them. Thanks for catching that!

Yes, they seem to be super loaded with talent and KY seems like a great coach so far. Very interested to see how they do this season.

[u/Surfer5153]

Don’t think sdsu “lost a lot” they returned a lot. SDSU lost Nick Boyd and two okay role players. They return 2 potential draft picks in Miles Byrd and Magoon Gwath. Reese Waters returns from injury. SDSU remains loaded.

[u/Critical-Mango-341 → u/Surfer5153]

You're right, and "lost a lot" doesn't really describe Gonzaga either, but this is the range I had you guys in.

[u/Windows_66]

I think I'm actually excited for Hawkeye Men's Basketball this year. I don't think that's really happened since Garza graduated.

[u/Rcy4122]

Torvik is taking into account Tech’s relative lack of depth (a fair concern) and has no way to accurately profile Christian Anderson’s usage profile (because he played so much off-ball last year), which in turn puts a higher usage on less efficient players.

I think they’re probably closer to 10th than 28th, but the depth concern behind an elite starting 5 is a little problematic. Toppin and Anderson has a good chance of being the best big/guard combo in the country though

[u/porterbrown]

Second weekend or bust.

[u/porterbrown]

St John's 

[u/No-Tomatillo-7566]

I think you can count on at least one of the "solid programs that lost a lot but get the benefit of the doubt" to disappoint. Winning on the road in a loaded conference while counting heavily on freshman may prove to much an ask (I'm looking at you Arizona.) Depth could be a problem for some on that list, as well.

[u/shawn131871]

I would say same with Gonzaga. Dont pick Houston until Houston wins a natty. Houston seems to choke alot.