r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • 18d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread August 22, 2025

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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u/D_Silva_21 18d ago

Lots of launch footage and articles about the FP-5 missile now. Hopefully we see some impact footage in the next week

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u/For_All_Humanity 17d ago edited 17d ago

I think that we will know if the FP-5 is really being produced in claimed numbers within the quarter. If they’re actually producing ~1 a day with production actively ramping then they should be able to generate a meaningful salvo about two times a month at least unless they want to use them individually.

Really, salvoes seem like the best option, as you have a higher likelihood of a complete success.

Though, perhaps they’re saving missiles in order to launch several days of salvoes at once, aiming to cripple some sector of the Russian economy/MIC.

For me though, I’ll withhold my faith in their claimed production numbers until we start seeing them used en mass.

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u/Glideer 17d ago

I find many things suspicious about the missile. Using a real turbofan engine (Ivchenko AI-2 from the L-39 training jet) severely limits mass production plans — considering the production numbers, Ukraine can't possibly have or acquire more than 500 such engines. Also, the cost of the Flamingo grows prohibitive if it uses real turbofans.

The design is highly vulnerable - covered in riveted steel sheets, having enormous dimensions and a speed in an optimum range to be engaged by any air defence system. It also does not look like a missile designed to fly low.

All in all, it sounds more like fake news disseminated to make Russia disperse its missile defences to cover targets 3,000km deep.

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u/PaxiMonster 17d ago

Do we know it's actually using the AI-25? I was under the impression that it's just the most likely candidate given its reported size, weight and range, but it's not the only engine available in ginormous quantities, just the only one that's produced domestically. It's at the lower range of the credible thrust figure, too. For all we know it might as well be something like the TFE731. I'm genuinely asking, I have my doubts about the FP-5, too, so I haven't really looked into it.

Either way, while I won't believe the FP-5 is a thing and that it's blowing up until I see something burning, and the design certainly has its issues, AI-25 family turbofans being available in ample supply isn't entirely uncredible IMHO. I don't know about 500+ right now, but a long-term, steady supply sounds doable.

The AI-25 was super widely produced and licensed. Just the AI-25TL, the one from the L-39, saw like what, 3000 units? You can grab a hundred of those just by going dumpster diving across Europe, the US and the Middle East. And you can squeeze another 3 or 4 hours out of them. It's not like they need them for the return trip.

Then, while Motor Sich are the only ones still manufacturing the AI-25TL variant, Ivchenko licensed all sorts of other variants all over the world. Maybe the AI-25TL, too, I don't recall if PZL produced their own engines for that weird biplane of theirs? And it's a design from the sixties, it's not that hard to make it in 2025. Between refurbishing and manufacturing them god knows where, 15-20 of those a month for the next 12 months looks easy, and 30-40 looks stretchy but possible in my opinion.

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u/Glideer 17d ago

Do we know it's actually using the AI-25?

Yes. They have been identified from the video of Flamingo missiles

https://www.twz.com/news-features/ukraine-aims-to-build-thousands-of-flamingo-long-range-cruise-missiles-a-year

The AI-25 was super widely produced and licensed. Just the AI-25TL, the one from the L-39, saw like what, 3000 units?

Yeah, but trainer jets see heavy use, and its time between overhauls was about 1,000 hours? The L-39s have been in use for 50-something years.

I don't think you can use AI-25 variants (or alternatives) without redesigning the Flamingo, that engine placement doesn't look very modular. And the production line in Motor Sich is 60km from the front, having received at least four heavy strikes so far.

I'd agree that 20-40 per month looks very possible, but not 200+ per month, which is the hoped-for production rate. I am surprised they haven't went with a pulse-jet design.

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u/PaxiMonster 17d ago

Yes. They have been identified from the video of Flamingo missiles

I mean... your link doesn't say that? It says:

With the new AP imagery in hand, experts and observers have drawn comparisons between what can be seen of the Flamingo’s engine and the AI-25TL turbofan, best known as the powerplant for the L-39 Albatros jet trainer.

I.e. it's not a positive identification yet. But I guess it's an obvious choice and we'll find out if the Russians ever recover the wreckage of one of those. Assuming they fly :). That's why I mentioned the different variants, at the very least. Everyone rushed to the AI-25TL because it's the most commonly manufactured but there are things like the TLT aren't a bad candidate, either.

Yeah, but trainer jets see heavy use, and its time between overhauls was about 1,000 hours? The L-39s have been in use for 50-something years.

That's part of my point. L-39s see heavy use, so they chew through the thousand-hour rating pretty quickly. It's not entirely uncommon for engines sent for overhaul to be sufficiently cooked that they're not worth repairing for aircraft use, or for the parts taken out in a hot section swap to still be in good enough shape that they'll still fly to Novorossiysk, both of which mean you can get an airworthy engine faster than if you have to build it from scratch and without depending completely on full production lines from near the front lines.

And the production line in Motor Sich is 60km from the front, having received at least four heavy strikes so far.

True, but it's worth remembering that the AI-25 family is one of those Soviet designs from back when, in true Soviet fashion, design and manufacturing were strictly separate. It's an Ivchenko design and Motor Sich are the only ones still operating a large manufacturing line (as far as we know), but technological transfer is something Ivchenko Lotarev (like most former Soviet enterprises) are really good at, so it's not entirely out there that assembly may have been dispersed, especially after Motor Sich was nationalized.

I'd agree that 20-40 per month looks very possible, but not 200+ per month, which is the hoped-for production rate. I am surprised they haven't went with a pulse-jet design.

Oh, yeah, 200+ per month in Ukraine sounds pretty out there. Maybe if they also manage to start production somewhere else (Turkey?) or it's not an AI-25-family engine they're using but a Western design. It would be a huge feat if they managed to pull off 200+ per month.

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u/Glideer 17d ago

I.e. it's not a positive identification yet.

It seems a positive identification if you visit the X page linked in the article: https://x.com/fab_hinz/status/1958562583193031137

I'll go back again to the pulse jet design (admittedly one of my pet ideas for mass production in this war, so apologies if I am obsessing over it). Ukraine could definitely produce those in quantities of 200 per month. Sure, the range would not be in a 3,000km range, but perhaps 500-600km, but you could fire those pulse-jet Flamingos in their hundreds.

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u/PaxiMonster 16d ago

It seems a positive identification if you visit the X page linked in the article: https://x.com/fab_hinz/status/1958562583193031137

That's just showing a few elements on the nozzle. Without at least a reference for scale (the analyst may have had one, it's just out of frame, that's fine, I'm not suspecting some malice here) that's nowhere near enough for a positive identification as an AI-25TL. Maybe for an AI-25 variant, with a scale reference. You'd have to see parts of one of the turbines or the fan to make an ID. Structural solutions for nozzles are pretty easily recycled.

Production for pulse jet designs may be easier to scale up but I don't think Motor Sich has that problem. If anything, they have the opposite problem: since they're presumably no longer supplying the Russian Air Force, they probably have quite a bit of unused capacity, even after the attacks, and no shortage of parts in warehouses all over the country.