r/CredibleDefense 18d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread August 22, 2025

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

* Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do _not_ cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible information

* Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

* Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

* Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

* Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

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u/D_Silva_21 18d ago

Lots of launch footage and articles about the FP-5 missile now. Hopefully we see some impact footage in the next week

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u/For_All_Humanity 17d ago edited 17d ago

I think that we will know if the FP-5 is really being produced in claimed numbers within the quarter. If they’re actually producing ~1 a day with production actively ramping then they should be able to generate a meaningful salvo about two times a month at least unless they want to use them individually.

Really, salvoes seem like the best option, as you have a higher likelihood of a complete success.

Though, perhaps they’re saving missiles in order to launch several days of salvoes at once, aiming to cripple some sector of the Russian economy/MIC.

For me though, I’ll withhold my faith in their claimed production numbers until we start seeing them used en mass.

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u/Glideer 17d ago

I find many things suspicious about the missile. Using a real turbofan engine (Ivchenko AI-2 from the L-39 training jet) severely limits mass production plans — considering the production numbers, Ukraine can't possibly have or acquire more than 500 such engines. Also, the cost of the Flamingo grows prohibitive if it uses real turbofans.

The design is highly vulnerable - covered in riveted steel sheets, having enormous dimensions and a speed in an optimum range to be engaged by any air defence system. It also does not look like a missile designed to fly low.

All in all, it sounds more like fake news disseminated to make Russia disperse its missile defences to cover targets 3,000km deep.

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u/2positive 17d ago edited 17d ago

Not so suspicious considering these engines are built by Ukrainian company motor sich. They have been making turbofan engines for Soviet an planes, mi helicopters etc for almost 100 years. Btw helicopter (mi-8 variant) with motor sich engine holds a world record in highest altitude achieved by a helicopter, 9150 meters, higher than Everest. No need to get them from old training jets.

Ps. I have a friend who flies an l-39 btw (this is entry level / cheapest jet you can fly). He once told me that there are several variants of them with different engines and Motor sich engines are best by far and most reliable.

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u/Glideer 17d ago

If they plan to produce 7 missiles per day (210 per month), they are not going to be able to produce enough new engines. At best, they could produce a few per month—and that was before Russian missile strikes against Motor Sich (at least four so far, with local sources saying engine production was specifically targeted).

The factory is 60 km from the front line, within the range of even tactical missile systems.

So, if they want those engines they will have to get them from old training jets.

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u/2positive 17d ago edited 17d ago

I am actually a somewhat large shareholder (I mean technically I was one before government nationalized it, and before that have handedly blocked all share transfers for years to block Chinese from buying it) and probably about 10x more informed on the issue than you are. Motor sich made the majority of engines for Russian built helicopters pre war and suddenly all those engines sales are zero and they have tons of unused capacity for just this. I also have much more (fresh) knowledge of state of motor sich after several attacks on it. Your desperation to spin every news in anti Ukrainian way igot you way off mark here.