Active Conflicts & News Megathread August 22, 2025

[u/AutoModerator]

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

* Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do _not_ cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible information

* Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

* Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

* Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

* Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

[u/ChornWork2]

I don't understand why nato hasn't explicitly made x miles from border part of its own air defense zone. easy to justify and then ukraine can use that buffer for defense manufacturing, training, etc.

[u/Tristancp95 → u/ChornWork2]

What if Russia warns that any GBAD shooting down their drones will be considered valid military targets? And then proceeds to strike just one launcher in Polish territory, with 0 civilian casualties?  

Now Poland/NATO are in a difficult decision. Do they strike back, effectively starting a hot war with Russia at a time when the European economy is teetering and the US is unreliable at best? A war that the majority of Europeans do not want to be actively fighting in? 

Or does Poland give Russia a pass for blowing up their hardware and killing servicemen on their territory, and thus look weak to their population while also encouraging Russia to continue escalating? What happens when Russia continues to strike more and more GBAD in Polish territory? At what point does it become impossible to avoid responding?  

I know this reads as a slippery slope, but that’s how it goes when you’re playing chutes and escalation ladders. 

[u/ChornWork2 → u/Tristancp95]

what if russia launches a nuke because we gave ukraine a leopard tank?

if we think russia losing is an unacceptable risk, then what are doing?

[u/Tristancp95 → u/ChornWork2]

what if russia launches a nuke because we gave ukraine a leopard tank?  

The nuclear scenario feels the same as hitler comparisons with how they are used in arguments nowadays 

[u/ChornWork2 → u/Tristancp95]

this isn't vietnam war with soviet/china escalation risk. ukraine is core to fundamental european security interests and should be treated as such. all the hemming and hawing about escalation has not only led to tragically more death/damage but also actually higher escalation risk. Decisively halting the russian advance on the ground and defending ukrainian airspace is not going to lead to putin to do something crazy.

[u/Tristancp95 → u/ChornWork2]

I mean yeah, I mostly agree with you. But that’s not the way European leaders are approaching it, and you and I aren’t going to convince them otherwise

[u/ChornWork2 → u/Tristancp95]

Totally understand the political dithering you get when have large group of politicians trying to balance their own set of political risks. Not suggesting the situation is anything but political reality, but my point is objectively speaking the talk of escalation risk doesn't have a lot of objective weight to it. But them embracing it is politically easier for them, as opposed to actually trying to lead.