Active Conflicts & News Megathread August 27, 2025

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[u/IntroductionNeat2746]

If anything good comes out of the war in Ukraine, it'll be western Europe actually taking its security seriously, including disaster preparedness and mitigation.

Every country on earth should prepare for catastrophes, including armed conflicts. That's why I wouldn't put much weight on this report. It doesn't necessarily mean the government sees a war as likely, simply that it wants to be prepared if the need be.

[u/obsessed_doomer → u/IntroductionNeat2746]

If anything good comes out of the war in Ukraine, it'll be western Europe actually taking its security seriously

Honestly I've crystalized the opposite opinion.

With a few bright exceptions, Europe has not been spending these last 4 years in preparation for a war. Which to be fair is going to be a good bet if it doesn't come, but in the contrary case, it's hairy.

[u/username9909864 → u/obsessed_doomer]

Since November 2024, they’ve been more serious. It hasn’t been long, but changes have been noticeable. Especially around NATO commitments.

[u/Forsaken-Guitar4480 → u/username9909864]

Changes have happened, but not at the rate needed if a conventional conflict should arise. Commitments to spending alone are not enough, because it takes 3-5 years to bring manufacturing supply chains online.

And European states remain disjointed around procurement and strategy to this day. For example, look at the FCAS snafu (instigated by the same conglomerate that owns the newspaper reporting the news above), or the status of the MGCS.

That said, it might explain the weakness around EU negotiation with the US over the trade deal. If collectively EU member states feel the risk of a conventional war in Europe spreading beyond Ukraine is moderate to high, placating the US and subsequently purchasing American weaponry makes sense.

Russia is not the behemoth Reddit (or even this subreddit) used to call it back 5-7 years ago, but it is not a paper tiger either. It is still a large country with a very real capacity to inflict pain across much of the Eastern half of the EU in a conventional manner or force an existential crisis for NATO.

A crisis around 2026 would actually be ideal if Russia wishes to fundamentally break NATO - it places any crisis well within the peak campaigning period for US midterm primaries thus making a European war an actual political hot potato, and forces the US political establishment to make a decision around whether to back the EU, pivot East, or make a "Grand Bargain".

[u/Puddingcup9001 → u/Forsaken-Guitar4480]

Arguably Russia is more dangerous today. Yes they are a bit weak now, but their army now has experienced war for several years. Despite being slow learners, they have learned and will have capabilities they did not have pre 2022. Current NATO airfields are still not prepared to fend off autonomous drone swarms for example.

Pre 2022 we had the perfect counters vs Russian tank swarms, now Russians will likely come in small mobile and covert infantry groups with tons of drones and missiles, which we do not have the perfect counter against.