Active Conflicts & News Megathread August 27, 2025

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[u/scarlet_sage]

I'm not sure whether this belongs here or in its own top-level post.

On BlueSky (and for all I know, other social media), ‪OSINTtechnical‬ @osinttechnical.bsky.social‬ began a skeet thread with

New from @truth.bsky.social, the U.S. is massing reconnaissance aircraft near Venezuela as the U.S. deploys nearly a dozen ships into the region.

The evidence adduced includes these items (see the thread for more details)

• Puerto Rico now hosts a detachment of Navy P-8A Poseidons. They include AN/APS-154 AAS (Advanced Airborne Sensor) and MUOS satellite upgrade. One with both, which allows them to direct strikes.
• "Earlier this month, the U.S announced that it would deploy a warship and at least one attack submarine to the southern Caribbean Sea."
• But it now includes 3 Arleigh Burkes, and the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group with thousands of Marines.
• And a Ticonderoga-class cruiser and a Los Angeles-class sub.

Unfortunately, I don't know a way to induce BlueSky to show a post and all its descendants. Going to the base post shows a lot of them, but I have to click on some places to get them all. (This might be an imitation of how Twitter worked?}

Has this been discussed by anyone else? Does it look plausible, or like fear-mongering? Is there reason to think that it's aimed at Venezuela in particular, or might it be the Panama Canal, which the Trump Administration has threatened?

[u/Difficult-Web244 → u/scarlet_sage]

Trump has recently taken aim at the cartels operating in Central America and Mexico. I'd imagine these actions are more likely aimed at the cartels than at Venezuela, especially because the Trump administration approved drilling deals in Venezuela and has interest in the government's stability.

[u/Rhauko → u/Difficult-Web244]

Rubio claims Maduro is a cartel leader

https://x.com/SecRubio/status/1949424526401692094

[u/Thoth_the_5th_of_Tho → u/Difficult-Web244]

If the aim is purely against cartels, what are the surface combatants for?

[u/PaxiMonster → u/Thoth_the_5th_of_Tho]

It's, aah, superficially aimed purely against cartels.

Edit: no, sorry, that's funny but without an explanation it's just sarcasm.

There are two major issues with Venezuela's drilling deals with the US. First, they're not exclusively with the US. Venezuela has also approved similar deals with e.g. China (source), and more generally has been diversifying its partnerships with smaller companies (source) after the US Treasury revoked drilling licenses for a bunch of American companies, including Chevron.

I don't mean to say that they're going at it because of oil. They might, but I'm not following the US oil & gas market in sufficient detail to say if there's a genuine and urgent need that needs to be addressed, even at the price of military intervention. But I think drilling partnerships with US companies no longer afford the Venezuelan administration much immunity towards Washington anymore.