Active Conflicts & News Megathread August 27, 2025

[u/AutoModerator]

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

* Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do _not_ cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible information

* Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

* Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

* Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

* Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

[u/Coat_Dry]

https://www.pacaf.af.mil/Portals/6/documents/3_AIB%20Report.pdf?ver=z-QJglR9Qm7slupMlo6zeA%3D%3D

The crash happened in January, it’s making the news because the crash report released today. Hydraulic fluid iced up due to being 1/3 water, computer placed the aircraft into ground mode which left it uncontrollable.

Older fighters wouldn’t have the same sort of issues the F-35 has i.e fly-by-wire system issues like the January F-35 crash. However there have been 5 F-18 crashes in the past year which is still less than many other fighters. 141 F-14s were lost in accidents. The F-35 has 4.8-7.5 hours of maintenance per flight hour whereas the F-14 had 20+. People are concerned about the F-35’s sub-62% mission capable rate but the F-16C is 64% and F-16D is 59%.

Overall it doesn’t seem to me the F-35 is a negative outlier. It’s cheaper than the F-15EX despite the stealth advantages, reasonably low-maintenance and affordable to fly($40k-ish per flight hour for the A model). 

[u/ilonir → u/Coat_Dry]

I agree with everything you have written except that the readiness rates are fine. They're not. The mission capable rates of the F-35 are only similar to the F-16 and F-15 due to the very old age of those fleets.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61482

The availability rates of a brand new F-35A (the cheapest and simplest variant) are about the same as a twenty-two year old F-16 or F-15. A seven year old F-35A has lower availability rates than a thirty-two year old F-16. Yes, you read that correctly - a not-even decade old F-35A has lower availability rates, on average, than an F-16 that's 80% of the way through it's intended service life.

Cost per hour paints a similar picture. The F-35A is very roughly 50% more expensive per flight hour than an F-16, and the same cost as a F-15. (Unfortunately, they do not provide cost per hour in terms of aircraft age.)

Now, is the F-35 a more capable aircraft? Yes. Are fifth gen's harder to maintain? Yes. Is the F-22 just as bad? Yes. However, it is objectively more expensive and less reliable than fourth gen aircraft, and not by a small amount.

[u/Cassius_Corodes → u/ilonir]

I wouldn't really assume that age would have much impact on readiness rates unless preventative maintenance was not being done correctly.

[u/ilonir → u/Cassius_Corodes]

I can think of a few reasons that readiness rates might degrade with age.

1. Older aircraft are less mature. Fighter jets are usually upgraded throughout their service life, allowing later production lots to remedy issues found on early aircraft.

2. Spare parts become less efficient to source. This is a big driving factor behind low F-35s readiness rates. If you have multiple versions (Blocks) of an aircraft in service, that potentialy means multiple supply chains for the same aircraft.

3. Airframe fatigue. Both F-16 and F-35A where designed to have 8000 hour service lives. Fighter jets live hard lives, and aluminum & composits - the primary materials with which airframes are constructed - have linear, gradual fatigue behavior. So rather than kicking the can at 8000 hours, they tend to degrade more steadily over their service life.

4. Loss of skilled labor. When a technology becomes semi-obsolete or oudated (see mech radar), you might expect to see less and less trained personnel in that field.

Whatever the exact reasons, it's not unusual for an aircrafts readiness rate to drop 20-50% by the end of its lifespan.