r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • 8d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread September 01, 2025

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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u/adfjsdfjsdklfsd 8d ago edited 8d ago

A few days after bombing the representations of the UK and the European Union in Kiev, Russia has now spoofed the GPS of the plane carrying Ursula von der Leyen on a tour visiting several "frontline states" to reaffirm Europe's commitment to defend Ukraine and itself against Russia.

While nothing happened, apart from the pilots needing to switch to manual navigation, this seems to illustrate a new Russian strategy of confronting Europe more directly.

I just wonder: for what reason? I can't help but notice the close temporal proximity to the Alaska meeting. So is this born out of boldness, seeing an opportunity to fracture European will and to dissuade Europe it from further support to Ukraine - or out of desperation, recognising that Russia's window of opportunity is rapidly closing?

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u/shash1 8d ago

Its posturing. Great for domestic headlines. Risk free. Cost is minimal.

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u/adfjsdfjsdklfsd 8d ago

It carries the risk that Europe will double down on it's rearmament efforts and support for Ukraine. That would be pretty costly.

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u/FriedRiceistheBest 7d ago

It carries the risk that Europe will double down on it's rearmament efforts and support for Ukraine.

3 years in and everyone knows that Europe will not do that.

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u/adfjsdfjsdklfsd 7d ago

Europe is doing both of those things, what are you talking about?

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u/bearfan15 7d ago

Most nato countries have not committed to anything meaningful. Of the ones that have, im very skeptical they will meet those targets. Especially Germany.

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u/OldBratpfanne 8d ago

Maybe in theory, but in practice this action isn’t changing anyone’s mind. No European country is going to significant adjust their defense spending or Ukraine support upwards because of an incident like this.

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u/ChornWork2 7d ago

We know that russia won't escalate if west arms ukraine, and russia knows europe won't escalate if they do these relatively trivial events of interference.

Would be much better off had just armed ukraine to defeat russian advances years ago.

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u/Elim_Garak_Multipass 7d ago

By now we are at the point where if they coulda, they woulda. All the proclamations about unity and strength and existential battle for the freedom of Europe and domino theories about Poland or the Baltics or whoever else being next if Ukraine falls has led us to where we are.

All that's left now are the same domestically impossible options of cutting the welfare states to massively rearm (and/or funnel some portion of that to Ukraine), committing European soldiers in large enough numbers to matter to potential war against Russia, cratering an already stagnant economy by issuing secondary sanctions against countries trading with Russia etc.

None of those are plausible, regardless of how many eurocrat planes Putin messes with. Or no matter of much of Ukraine he conquers, for that matter. You think the French citizenry is going to accept pension cuts to save Ukraine or punish Putin for anything short of nuking Paris?