Active Conflicts & News Megathread September 01, 2025

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[u/Awkward-Ad-5359]

Is Russia ever having problems to find more soldiers?

Russian meatwaves are relentless. If they start having problems to find soldiers it will (hopefully) give Ukrainians some time to rest by slowing down the meatwave tactic to some degree.

I'd appreciate it if you shared what you know about that.

[u/Cassius_Corodes → u/Awkward-Ad-5359]

On the in Moscow's shadow podcast, Galeotti stated that due to the perception that the war would be over soon there was a surge in people signing up as people are trying to get in on bonuses and veterans benefits before it's over. That was a couple of months ago now.

[u/SuperBlaar → u/Awkward-Ad-5359]

Janis Kluge regularly posts about recruitment numbers insofar as they can be inferred from budget figures.

IIRC, last year's Q3 saw a notable drop in recruitment in spite of big raises in bonuses, which gave hope to some (including myself), but then an unprecedented surge happened in Nov/December (Trump victory effect?).

Overall it seems like recruitment figures can be maintained at the moment. The news shows a "positive" dynamic (Russia is advancing on the map, US is ambivalent on Ukraine, ..) and there's still some hope on a soon-to-be negotiated end to the war. I fear that if there are real economic problems and they impact the job market it will further fuel military recruitment (the strong job market led to rising wages and boosted confidence; lots of people took out loans (to buy houses, cars, etc) at high interest rates in 2023-2024, and now there's a lot of people with overdue debt).

[u/mr_f1end → u/SuperBlaar]

I fear that if there are real economic problems and they impact the job market it will further fuel military recruitment (the strong job market led to rising wages and boosted confidence; lots of people took out loans (to buy houses, cars, etc) at high interest rates in 2023-2024, and now there's a lot of people with overdue debt).

I just want to endorse this. I think a lot of people do not realize that as Russian economy gets worse, people would have even more reason to join the military. Volunteering comes with debt forgiveness. I think a lot of men would rather go to the front than have their family on the street.

[u/IntroductionNeat2746 → u/Awkward-Ad-5359]

On that topic, I've been wondering for a while now about Russian sign in bonus. Earlier this year there was a big focus on that and the bonus kept going up, but I haven't heard anything in months.

[u/Corbakobasket → u/IntroductionNeat2746]

It's stagnating, and in some regions it even decreased.

It appears that, partly to the broader effort to make the war cheaper, enlistment bonus have been revised down. Also most of Russias regions were sourcing money from their own funds and eventually ran out.

That being said I don't know if it discouraged people from enlisting.

[u/IntroductionNeat2746 → u/Corbakobasket]

That being said I don't know if it discouraged people from enlisting.

That's the million ruble question. In theory, it's definitely should, but with a worsening economy, people might be willing to volunteer for less money.

[u/mirko_pazi_metak → u/IntroductionNeat2746]

It's currently a life-changing sum - one could say once-in-a-lifetime opportunity - for the contractnik and their family. In many cases it's more money than they would bring back to their family over a whole lifetime of  paychecks minus the booze.

This is why Russians aren't complaining about the war dead - these are all people who made this deal willingly and so did their families, now living on their death-in-service payouts and without their drunkard deadbeat husband/father/son.

Once this balance changes and it's no longer buying them a flat and a (Chinese) car, fewer and fewer will join up and instead opt to smuggle petrol or similar as the the worsening economy under government restrictions is always followed by gray economy & black markets. 

I'm sure Putin is well aware of the danger and will try to balance things out - and he seemed well capable in doing so, so far. My hope is that as Russia gets stretched thin everywhere then something unexpected happens and shakes thibgs apart. Doesn't have to be another Prigozhin-like mutiny - just a sudden oil price drop which Saudis alone can orchestrate, or similar. We'll see! 

[u/lee1026 → u/Corbakobasket]

It also just might be supply and demand - if there are more people signing up than Russians need at the front, cutting back on bonus is rational.

[u/Tricky-Astronaut → u/Awkward-Ad-5359]

Here's a thread about Russian recruiting:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1954802202112819577.html

3/ In the past, Russia resorted to recruiting prisoners to get more people. That approach has shifted. Now, individuals arrested on suspicion of various crimes are offered the chance to sign a contract with the MoD on the spot - often as a way to avoid criminal investigation.

...

8/ The catch: these recruits are officially “volunteers,” not mobilized. But the pressure to enlist is often physical - beatings, hazing by other soldiers, and threats of reassignment to dangerous combat zones like Kursk oblast without the benefits granted to contract soldiers.

...

10/ A man caught with a small joint in Russia who then faces police threats of having larger quantities of drugs planted on him to send him to jail can hardly be called a conscious volunteer. This manipulation disguises coercion and is a good example of hidden mobilization

Russia has a larger population and can be more selective, but coercion is becoming more widespread. There are some similarities with the mobilization in Ukraine.

[u/Duncan-M → u/Awkward-Ad-5359]

Russia doesnt use Meatwave tacrics, so that's probably something you would want to address before coming to terms with this question. If you define the problem using propaganda, the only acceptable reply will then need to be propaganda.

[u/Lejeune_Dirichelet → u/Duncan-M]

The terms "meatwave" or "meat assault" are also used by the Russian side.

[u/Duncan-M → u/Lejeune_Dirichelet]

Show me when "meatwave" was used by the Russians. Meat Waves are synonymous with human wave attacks. Pretty hard to do that with squads and fireteams attacking here and there, which is how the Russians have done those attacks for years.

No doubt "Meat Assault" is a term used, as the Russians are definitely using Meat, I've said so myself. But to qualify all Russian infantry attacks as meat is just false. In fact, and per numerous Pro_UA sources too, a large number of RU advances aren't even attacks anymore, as they can easily infiltrate right through the Ukrainian lines, bereft due to their manpower crisis and orders to not engage the Russians unless being assaulted.