Active Conflicts & News Megathread September 01, 2025

[u/AutoModerator]

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[u/reddituserperson1122]

Does anyone still believe that Putin would go nuclear if he were facing a battlefield loss in Ukraine? Does that threat remain credible?

I don’t think it does at all. And if it’s not, it raises the question: what (domestic politics aside for the moment) is the downside to NATO/Europe entering the war and pushing Putin’s troops back to Russia? Perhaps letting him keep Crimea to save face.

The strategy wouldn’t have to be instant escalation. It could be a salami slicing carried out over a year or two or more. Introduce battlefield advisors (special forces) followed by specialized equipment and enablers followed by limited air power, etc. etc.

I find it extremely difficult to imagine any single addition of forces provoking nuclear escalation — it seems far more likely that battlefield losses, backed by the certainty of future losses to come, would just bring him to the negotiating table.

Why am I wrong?

[u/Glideer → u/reddituserperson1122]

He will use nuclear weapons if the benefits outweigh the downsides.

If he is choosing between a decisive defeat in Ukraine and international outcry and sanctions caused by use of nuclear weapons - well, you do the math.

The boiling the frog by slowly increasing the temperature strategy works on frogs. Less so on human beings. They see where the process is heading and tend to react violently.

[u/reddituserperson1122 → u/Glideer]

Given that the downsides would be permanent exile from the civilized world and probably the destruction of Russia as a functional military power, it’s hard to see how a random chunk of Ukraine would be worth It.

we have repeatedly crossed Putin‘s “red lines” many times by boiling the frog and so far he hasn’t really responded at all.

[u/Glideer → u/reddituserperson1122]

Given that the downsides would be permanent exile from the civilized world and probably the destruction of Russia as a functional military power

Big words but, you know, permanent exiles tend not to last. How will Russia that defeated Ukraine using nukes going to be destroyed as a functional military power?

we have repeatedly crossed Putin‘s “red lines” many times by boiling the frog and so far he hasn’t really responded at all.

Ask Ukraine about Russia's red lines. Or the USA and South Korea, who now have to deal with North Korea that has access to Russian technology, including possibly ICBMs. Not to mention the massive complications stemming from the Russia-NK defence pact.

[u/grenideer → u/Glideer]

Russia working with other pariah states is a sign of their lowly standing, not of crossed red lines. It's not necessarily desperate, it's pragmatic, but only because they have few places to turn to.

[u/reddituserperson1122 → u/Glideer]

“How will Russia that defeated Ukraine using nukes going to be destroyed as a functional military power?”

It’s hard to imagine that the US and Europe wouldn’t feel obligated to punish a Russia that violated the nuclear taboo. It would be basically essential to the US and NATO maintaining a credible deterrent. The most common scenario I hear is that the US/NATO would respond with overwhelming conventional air power to decimate Russian non-dual-use conventional infrastructure. The response would necessarily be devastating in order to re-inscribe the taboo, while remaining conventional and carefully structured to communicate to the Russians that we aren’t targeting their nuclear systems or attempting regime change.

There’s just no way that Europe can tolerate an actor that dangerous on their doorstep and do nothing. And they would frankly have the means to run a meaningful, successful deep strike campaign into Russia without the US, although it would have to be much more limited than a collaboration with the US would and it would pretty much empty Europe’s missile stocks. But it’s unavoidable that the Russian Air Force would be gone within a week couple of weeks, and key targets enabling Russia’s Ukraine invasion could be struck with few expected losses. Also, keep in mind that Europe collectively has scores of modern air defense systems many of which can shoot down IRBMs, which further dilutes the threat of additional Russian tactical nuclear strikes in response to a NATO air campaign.

“Ask Ukraine about Russia's red lines. Or the USA and South Korea, who now have to deal with North Korea that has access to Russian technology, including possibly ICBMs. Not to mention the massive complications stemming from the Russia-NK defence pact.” I have no idea what this is supposed to mean. Sorry I must be dense. I don’t see how this is meant to be a convincing argument that Russia is likely to use nuclear weapons in response to direct European and/American intervention for Ukraine. Can you explain?

[u/Glideer → u/reddituserperson1122]

I know that this is the most common publicly disseminated scenario but I don't know any expert that takes it seriously.

The very idea that the West that hasn't intervened in Ukraine out of fear that Russia might go nuclear will suddenly go to war with Russia that has just proven willingness to certainly go nuclear is patently ridiculous.

What carefully calibrated deep strike campaign? Russia would just say that any attack on them is an act of war (as it indeed is) and that they would use tactical nukes against any base used to launch strikes.

The threat of conventional attack on Russia is for public consumption. Nobody will risk their country being destroyed to punish Russia for using nukes.

The idea that Europe alone would attack Russia is so impossible that it's difficult to even imagine. That means going to war with Russia. Which country is going to offer their bases for this endeavour when they know that tactical nukes will be used against those bases?

No, the response would have to be diplomatic and economic. Russia is not using nukes because of the global condemnation and sanctions that would include China and India. They know that the USA and Europe attacking them is an empty threat.

[u/reddituserperson1122 → u/Glideer]

I think the logic is the opposite. I’m not saying it wouldn’t be scary. But I think if the west didn’t respond forcefully it would basically be the end of deterrence. You’d be ratifying nuclear blackmail in the future and announcing to the world, “if you get nukes we’ll just give up.” It would certainly make a defense of Taiwan untenable. I don’t see how that situation is tolerable for Europe or the US.

[u/Glideer → u/reddituserperson1122]

Nuclear blackmail was the core of the MAD doctrine on which the Cold War was based - for 40 years.

We only pretend to be shocked now because it is about Russia. Those same Western experts calmly discussed possible Israeli nuclear deployment against Iranian underground facilities without ever mentioning "nuclear taboo" or plans for the USA to attack Israel if that happened.

[u/reddituserperson1122 → u/Glideer]

Israel is not Russia and Iran doesn’t share a border with half of NATO. Nuclear blackmail during the Cold War is why we have a large standing military. It was understood that if the Soviets had been able to detonate a nuke on Germany’s border and dare the west to nuke them back, our deterrent wouldn’t be credible. Conventional force was what allowed us to plan on stopping Soviet forces in the field while retaining an escalation ladder. That remains true.

However all of this is predicated on the belief that Putin would use a nuke, and in your telling, he would pay no price for it. Again, I don’t find either of those ideas likely. You said we would impose additional sanctions on Russia. Why wouldn’t Putin just threaten to nuke Kiev if we didn’t normalize trade? No risk to him, right? He could probably break NATO by dropping a bunch of big dirty nukes right on the Ukrainian side of Poland’s border on a windy day. Poland would invoke article 5 and half of NATO would presumably be looking for any excuse to not respond while the Baltic states would be screaming bloody murder. I just don’t see how this could all be allowed to unfold.

(And that’s not even talking about what China would do once we’ve announced that if you set off a nuke we’ll stand down. Nor does it take into account domestic pressure to avenge dead NATO troops.)

[u/Glideer → u/reddituserperson1122]

However all of this is predicated on the belief that Putin would use a nuke, and in your telling, he would pay no price for it.

I said that?! I am consistently saying in every post that they would pay a significant price in sanctions (including by China and India), diplomatic fallout and worldwide reputational damage.

What I am saying is that the threat of the West (or Europe alone) conventionally attacking Russia in retaliation is totally non-credible.

Also, I don't think that, even if Russia used nukes, they would be dirty nukes. They would probably use nukes in air-burst mode, which leaves no significant radiation - not in Ukraine and certainly not in NATO countries.

Why don't they do that? The profit/loss calculation is currently completely against it. They are advancing, and their army keeps growing, so why risk massive sanctions and international odium?

My comment is just referring to the ridiculous notion that, in case Russia used nukes in Ukraine, the West would attack it. That's fine for public consumption but utterly lacks any logic.

[u/ViriditasBiologia → u/Glideer]

You do realize, the invasion, the current president of the United States, and much foreign policy, "lacks logic" the world doesn't work like this subreddit.