Active Conflicts & News Megathread September 01, 2025

[u/AutoModerator]

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[u/reddituserperson1122]

I don’t think rational actors escalate just for the sake of escalation. They escalate towards a goal. There is nothing valuable to Putin to warrant that level of. If there were, he would have escalated a long time ago when Russia was losing badly.

And you’re missing out on the larger point which is that NATO’s viability and its own credible deterrent is premised in part on not being deterred by Russia. If Russia comes out of this conflict a winner, why would the Baltic states ever trust Article 5 again? You said it yourself — France and the UK care more about Paris and London. If NATO can be scared off by Putin sabre rattling about Ukraine, is a piece of paper someone signed in 1949 really going to make the UK risk London for a few hundred square miles of Poland?

[u/Glideer → u/reddituserperson1122]

NATO has spent 50 years being deterred by Russia (and deterring Russia in return). I think being deterred is nothing new to them.

If they are willing to join the war in Ukraine on one side, then by all means, it's their decision. Putin is just telling them what the consequences will be.

[u/reddituserperson1122 → u/Glideer]

I actually don’t think NATO was ever particularly deterred by the Soviets, seeing as NATO was not expansionist. The Cuban Missile Crisis was the closest we came and I don’t recall the US being particularly deterred.

[u/obsessed_doomer → u/reddituserperson1122]

Yeah what was NATO deterred from, say in the time period from 97 to 08?

Not invading St. Petersburg?