Hi Everyone!
Today I wanted to talk about one of the ideas I've been working on, recently accelerated by Christophers recent AMA + Tweets. As always, thanks to /u/notainsleym and /u/cptn-40 and everyone else who helps work through these ideas - these theories are always a team effort. Let's dive right in.
tl;dr
Markov chains are the fundamental mechanism behind both premonitions and the gedwëy ignasia's danger sense, as confirmed by Christopher Paolini's comments linking them to "detecting certain possibilities
Premonitions work by looking at probability landscapes - sensitive individuals can perceive glimpses of probable futures, especially those who are magically sensitive, like Eragon; or at places where the world is "shifting
Dreams and visions "leak through" from the realm of spirits (superluminal space in Fractalverse terms) when reality's fabric shifts, allowing glimpses of alternate probability chains
The gedwëy ignasia glows based on Markov Chains/danger probability - it detects highly probable threats in the immediate future, though it can produce false alarms when probability chains shift rapidly
Probability manipulation is possible through strategic scrying - by measuring the energy cost of viewing different futures, skilled magic users can play "probability hot and cold" to steer events toward desired outcomes
Azlagur likely uses black smoke to filter probability chains as premonitions- the smoke acts as a Markov chain filter, showing followers only visions where Azlagur wins while suppressing alternative futures as "false" or "unclean
Angela is a master probability manipulator operating across multiple worlds - her presence in both the Inheritance Cycle and Fractalverse suggests she's orchestrating long-term probability optimization on a massive scale
This is further supported by the fact that Angela deliberately chose not to kill Galbatorix despite having the power to do so, because direct action wouldn't lead to her desired future outcomes - instead she guided Eragon to do it
"Interesting" events attract Angela because they're crucial probability inflection points - moments where small interventions can create massive downstream effects in the probability tree towards her desired end state
@paolini: Mmm, Markov chains
@Nrock49: Any relation to bubbles of the same name? [Note: Markov Bubbles are the same thing as the "twist of space" spell that Tenga invented, and that Eragon uses to hide the Eldunarí from the Vault of Souls].
@Paolini: Of course.
https://x.com/paolini/status/1960040454952833393
So they're confirmed to be related - but what exactly are Markov chains, and why should Eragon fans care?
Markov chain or Markov process is a stochastic process describing a sequence of possible events in which the probability of each event depends only on the state attained in the previous event)
Put more simply (Sourced from here:
A markov chain is simply a "path" of various destinations, where each direction you take has a certain probability of happening.
For example, lets say every time you encounter a crossroads, you always take a random turn. This means that you have A->B(0.5)/C(0.5) chain. Thats a very simple markov chain.
An example of a slightly more complex chain would be:
Start in A
30% chance to stay in A, 50% chance to go to B, 20% chance to go to C
B has 80% chance to stay in B, 10% chance to return to A, 10% chance to go to C
C has 0% chance to stay in C, 50% chance to go to A, 50% chance to go to B.
That is a markov chain. If you are in the chain, all you care about is your current position - if you are currently in C, it doesnt matter what probabilities A has, all that matters is what probabilities C has.
The reason this matters for Eragon is that Markov chains appear to be the fundamental mechanism behind premonitions and the gedwëy ignasia's danger sense. Let's look at the evidence:
Yes, Eragon would make an excellent Speaker. Isn't it interesting how many magically-sensitive people are having dreams of the future, eh?
Do the riders mark have a danger sense built in?
Yes. It's a minor form of precognition/premonition. However, hardly infallible.
It glows based on the probability of "danger", based on MARKOV CHAINS. Based on the probability that some bad event will happen. It can see probable future dangers, and alert you - however, it may have some probability threshold under which it doesn't alert you (i.e. there's always a very small risk you trip and break your neck, but that's not "worth" or high probability enough to glow over).
But, if there is highly probable danger in the future, or probability that you may get hurt, then it starts to glow as a warning - because it's a very probable outcome, given the current 'state' of the world.
And - if you don't believe me, Christopher confirmed this mechanism from an old interview back in 2011 here
Q: How does the gedwëy ignasia “tingling palm” actually work for Eragon? Does it only warn Eragon of nearby enemies, or does it warn of possible threats – friends or foe – that may be near? Does it only detect the presence of magic or magical beings?
A: It’s an uncertain effect because it relies on the same mechanism that allows premonitions within Eragon’s world. Basically, the gedwëy ignasia can detect certain possibilities. The more likely something is to happen, the more likely it may be noticed before it actually happens by those who are sensitive to magic. However, since premonitions are chancy things at best, there is never a guarantee that you will always get a warning before something bad is about to happen. And sometimes you get a warning and nothing does happen. It has been noticed by Riders that if they are aware of the impending danger, it’s far less likely that their gedwëy ignasia will itch or tingle. Ignorance seems to be linked to the sensation, and this the Riders attribute again to the dragons’ ofttimes inexplicable use of magic.
Can detect certain possibilities... Markov chains.
Even more importantly, it works on the same mechanism that allows premonitions - which means premonitions (and, more broadly, the future) are ALSO based on Markov chains. Let's examine what this tells us about how premonitions actually function.
Eragon's Premonitions:
Eragon’s dream... now I know I’ve said premonitions usually only go a short distance in the future but Eragon’s kind of an odd case because he’s in a very, very strange position with regard to what’s happening in the world and who he is and his dreams are happening because: one, he’s become fairly powerful and he’s always been fairly powerful with magic. And two: the world is shifting and that’s why sometimes things tend to leak through occasionally in dreams. Although, I should say that his dreams of Arya were not premonitions. They were current events, essentially scrying but they weren’t premonitions and I think I did say that in Eldest.
These passages suggest that premonitions work by accessing major inflection points in the probability landscape - when major events create ripples in the Markov chains (i.e. depending on the outcome of that event, the future can take MASSIVE swings in various directions, such as the death of Galbatorix), sensitive individuals can perceive these as glimpses of probable futures.
Also - Notice Paolini's language here: "the world is shifting" and things "leak through" in dreams.
Leak from where? Leak "through" what? The other interesting bit, is, that if dreams are "leaking" (which implies a hole in some kind of separation of worlds, or LUMINAL MEMBRANE )
From where... Let's see
When Eragon has waking dreams, he often sees figures at the fringes of his consciousness, or mentions "gauze-like figures" when first waking up. Do these come from the spirit realm? Where does your consciousness "go" during these waking dreams? Is there an equivalent of "astral projection" or something?
Eragon is coming closer to the realm of the spirits (in a way). His consciousness remains in his body, but he is more open to things that are pure energy than during his normal daytime hours.
The realm of the spirits. Also known as (Fractalverse spoilers) Superluminal Space
And, as for the "leaks"...
Q: In FWW, Angela mentions "I fell into a curious trance - not asleep - but not fully awake..." - Is this similar, or even the same thing as the dream-like trance from Elves and Dragons? And then later - "The world altered" - Is this the same phenomenon as the "shifting" of the library (and subsequent aching of wrongness in underlying fabric)? Can you share any other tidbits on the "altering" of the world here?
A: Yes, similar/same. Yes, altered/shifting = same. Has to do with manipulation of the underlying fabric of reality.
And, remember what Christopher said earlier: * And two: the world is shifting and that’s why sometimes things tend to leak through occasionally in dreams*
The world is shifting, so "things" (aka "probable futures") leak through.
Very interesting. I'll touch on Angela a bit later, but let's return back to Markov Chains/Premonitions for now.
I want to explore how someone, or something could manipulate probability of future events (given current state) if they had the ability to predict the probability of future outcomes based on the current "state" of the world.
Because, if this IS the way it works (and, we know it is based on Christophers comments), then a clever magician (Tenga, or Angela) can abuse this power to understand how to steer events towards a certain outcome.
We know this is possible because of this comment from Christopher:
Not all paths: that would destroy any sentient mind. And keep in mind, EVERYTHING takes energy to do, even peering into the future. However, they're sometimes able to see some of the most likely paths (that is, those that take the least energy to see as they're the closest to what actually exists).
So.. If one is able to peer into the future (more specifically, one specific future outcome), and measure the amount of energy the more energy it takes to scry that future, they can determine a way to steer towards that desired future. It's an imperfect science, but it would work like this:
if you can measure the energy required to scry different future outcomes, you can play a strategic game of "probability hot and cold." Scry a desired future, measure the energy cost, take an action, then scry again. If it takes less energy the second time, that future has become more probable. Rinse and repeat to gradually steer events toward your preferred outcome.
This isn't omnipotence - you're limited by what's realistically possible and how far you can see. But a sufficiently skilled manipulator could nudge probability over time. As Paolini noted: "they're sometimes able to see some of the most likely paths (that is, those that take the least energy to see as they're the closest to what actually exists)"
A pretty good example of this is the Rick and Morty (I know, I know) about Death Crystals - in which case a crystal shows all likely deaths based on your current state; but if your path/state changes, then so does the "probable" death outcomes. It works on a similar principle.
Now, let's get back to the world of Eragon - I believe this (the manipulating of current events to achieve a higher probability in a particular future outcome) is actually happening (although a more refined version) in multiple distinct locations throughout the books.
Namely, by Angela and Azlagur. Let's examine -
As we know, staying in the "places of black smoke" give people visions (as seen in Nal Gorgoth, and Mani's Caves). But... these visions aren't normal. They're systematically manipulated. I believe Azlagur's smoke acts as a Markov chain/premonition "filter", using energy stored in the smoke to show ONLY the possible futures where Azlagur wins.
The evidence supports this interpretation. Multiple villagers share identical dreams of Azlagur's triumph, but when someone has a different vision, it's branded as "false" and "unclean." Crucially, they acknowledge these alternate visions are possible - the issue isn't that they're lies, but that they show probability chains that don't serve Azlagur's agenda. Consider what happens when the smoke's effects wear off:
"I did not dream as was right and proper. My mind was empty all the night until just before waking. Then an image filled my mind, and I saw the white mountain with—” The faces of those listening hardened, and Murtagh saw no charity in their expressions. “Enough!” cried the acolyte. “Do not poison our minds with your false visions. You are unclean, Dethra.” “I am unclean!” she shouted, tears streaking down her cheeks. “You are unworthy!” “I am unworthy! Punish me! Let me atone!” With a thunderous scowl, the acolyte pointed at her. “Dethra! You cannot regain favor in the Eyes of Bachel until you purge this heresy from your being. Go to the temple and confine yourself to the Azurite Room" (Recitations of Faith, Murtagh).
A few things to note here - Dreaming "right and proper" is defined by dreaming of Azlagur and/or one of his winning future outcomes.
The Draumar claim any outcome in which Azlagur doesn't win is a "False vision" - and that to claim otherwise is considered "unclean" or "poisoning" the others. Interesting. So they acknowledge that it's "possible" (i.e. that it's possible to dream of those things), and this also tells us the smoke isn't infallible - the effects of it wear off. The fact that they have a procedure for this also tells us this isn't the first time this has happened.
Also note the punishment - she is supposed to confine herself to the Azurite room. Which, based on later passages in Murtagh, we can infer is a room much closer to the smoke - in whichi Dethra would be "re-infected" or overexposed to the smoke, which would put up the veil around their minds, again.
Which gets back to my earlier point - the "visions" from Azlagur are really just using the Black Smoke to manipulate the visions of the future to obscure any future in which Azlagur does not win.
But... doesn't that take energy to do? Especially considering it may not be a likely outcome?
Ah, it does. So let's look at some of those stones that were picked up from around the places of black smoke...
The rock glistered and gleamed as if burning from within. It was a perfect pair to the stone he’d had off Sarros in Ceunon what seemed like half a year ago.
and, when asking Christopher about it:
Q: Is there any connection between the "glowing" from the crystals in Oth Orum, the "glowing" from Bachel's dragon scale armor, and the "glowing" of the rock from sarros?
A: It's all energy. When there is energy in an object, especially a crystal/gem/scale, it gives it an unusual glister/glow.
So... it's energy. That's what the glow is for. And, I believe, that's where the energy for the scrying of (potentially very unlikely futures) comes from. The smoke itself (which imbues "left over" energy in the rocks/surrounding vegetation). And that explains the purpose of the smoke, too. Or, at least, one of the intended effects. Abusing Magical Smoke (which itself contains energy) + Markov Chains to manipulate people's minds to only show possible future outcomes in which your side "wins".
Very interesting.
Now, to finish up here, let's look at a second potential case - Angela.
Angela clearly understands how Markov chains work, given her abilities as a fortune teller. But I believe she's using this knowledge for something far more complex than simple divination - she's engaged in long-term probability optimization on a massive scale.
The strongest piece of evidence I have here that Angela is manipulating Markov chains to push towards a specific future (or set of outcomes), is her interaction with Galbatorix. Or, rather, lack thereof.
Christopher has said that Angela could kill Galbatorix:
Q: Will we get Angela lore? I feel like she could have killed Galbatorix and just didn't feel like it.
A: Well, she's a difficult character to write. She's very fun to write. For those who don't know Angela is based on my sister Angela, because she breaks the fourth wall to a degree she has. Not only does she have plot armor, she knows she's in a story and can break the story itself. So, yes, she could have killed Galbatorix, but that would have made for a very bad story. That said, I do have an entire book planned around Angela, and it's very high on my list of books to write because it takes place before some of these other big stories I want to write. And that's also the difficult thing. I have my big storylines, and then I have a couple of one off side books I want to write, and it's just a question of time, energy and effort.
So... given how much she opposes him (and, we know she does given the fact she fights the armies under Farthen Dur, and on the Burning plains, etc etc), and the fact that she has the capability to kill him... why doesn't she?
I think Markov chains provide the clear answer - she knows, or has scried the most probable future outcomes in which she kills Galbatorix directly. And they don't line up with her goals - she knows that if she directly kills Galbatorix, it doesn't result in the end state she wants. So, therefore, that's why she doesn't kill him - even though she can/could. Further, I believe she subtly manipulates Eragon into killing him (not that he needed much pushing) because, again, it furthers her goals. Or, to put it in Markov Chain terms, it increases the probability of the future she desires. That's it. Her actions are entirely derived around trying to find the best path, over many many years (as is implied by her presence in the Fractalverse). We don't know exactly what those are yet, but I fully believe she understands the future is based on probabilities and is able to manipulate current events to tinker with the probability of future events.
This would also explain her pattern of behavior. She appears "where interesting things are happening" because those are the crucial inflection points in the probability tree - moments where small interventions can have massive downstream effects. Her seemingly random actions aren't random at all; they're precise adjustments designed to keep the probability chains flowing toward her desired end state.
Angela's presence in the Fractalverse suggests the scope of her work extends far beyond just Alagaësia. And, the fact that she spends so much time in Eragon's world implies something critical is happening there in the probability landscape - some crucial branching point that could affect outcomes across multiple worlds or timelines. And something that requires her to carefully guide the key players (Eragon, Saphira, Elva, etc) to achieve those outcomes.
To wrap it all up - manipulating future probabilities (as seen through Markov Chains/premonitions) explain several mysterious things in the books: why premonitions sometimes do not come to pass (probability chains shifted, which results in the particular scried future not being as probable), why the gedwëy ignasia gives occasional false alarms (probability of dangers briefly spike), and why powerful characters sometimes make seemingly irrational choices (because they're optimizing for non-obvious future outcomes).
Whew.
Alrighty, I've been ranting on for long enough. I'll stop myself here - Let me know what you think in the comments! As always, thanks for reading.