r/MSTR • u/squire212 • 2d ago
Bullish 📈 I’ve been bearish on $MSTR but just flipped Bullish
For the past two months, I’ve been bearish, (see my post history) and I’ve been right for the most part. $MSTR has only been going down or trading sideways, many times underperforming $BTC by 1.3 to 2.3x factor. It was the most part either 1/ BTC go up, MSTR go down, 2/ BTC go down, MSTR go down by an amplified factor. BTC go up, MSTR go sideways.
The last two days has seen a trend reversal where MSTR has remained neutral when BTC went down or up while BTC trade sideways. This is a signal of a trend reversal and sentiment reversal. I believe from here on out, as long as BTC go up, MsTR will out perform.
Other signal is BtC breaking down below $110k and recovering. $110k is now the true support and we will go up from here.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
129
u/mjshibz 2d ago
Guy is gunna post I am now bearish again when it’s down tomorrow
39
1
22
u/GapeJelly 2d ago
tl;dr: mNAV went up today
2
1
u/RealPossible5023 2d ago edited 2d ago
mNAV, both actual and dilluted, are up 6% since the minimum hit last week. 1 tick up each day since then
37
u/Sector__7 2d ago
Wait until next month when both go down before uptober, moonvember and Santa Balls.
6
u/squire212 2d ago
Amplified Correlation is all I ask for
2
u/Additional-Fennel669 1d ago
Just buy bitx and then holy **** it's literally right there. literally gives you amplified correlation as a rule
9
u/taipeileviathan 2d ago
I bought a couple OTM LEAPs for fun today. Same thought process. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
1
0
8
4
3
3
2
2
2
u/HerpDerpin666 Shareholder 🤴 2d ago
Oh shoot! Random dude on the internet just flipped???!!! HECK YES! Calls it is!
2
u/hiddenintheleavess 1d ago
I’m new to MSTR and can’t help but feel confused on price action in on the one month.
I’m extremely bullish on BTC and genuinely could hold my shares of MSTR for years if I needed to, but this thing just isn’t following BTC at all lately. Just odd. Either way I think shares in the worlds first BTCTC is extremely valueable but it’s odd to see this kind of movement in the short term.
3
u/rokman 2d ago
You have to remember, mstr has massive debt. Bitcoin needs to appreciate in value greater than that debt (10%) and the bond equivalent yield (5%) to break even.
6
u/Similar-Target7095 1d ago edited 1d ago
That’s a misunderstanding of how MSTR’s balance sheet actually works.
As of Q2 2025 they hold over $74B in Bitcoin against about $8B in total debt and preferreds, which is an LTV of under 11%, hardly “massive.”
The annual cost of servicing all that debt plus preferred dividends is roughly $614M, less than 1% of assets and about 2% of the equity they’ve raised. Preferreds are perpetual, fixed-rate instruments that function more like long-term capital than margin, and dividends can be suspended without triggering default.
In other words, BTC doesn’t need to “outperform” the debt or yield to break even; the debt service is tiny relative to assets. The real risk here is straightforward Bitcoin exposure, not some hidden leverage trap.
1
1
1
1
u/Suspended_9996 2d ago edited 1d ago
disclosure: strategy's dividend obligations top 580$ million
mstr-351.36 usd/no dividend/total DEBT (mrq) 8.21$ billion
mr.saylor has exercised $363.5 million worth of stock options in the company
how much are the analysts getting paid 4 pumping mstr stock?
2025-08-26 E&OE/CYA
2025-08-27 edit: mstr-342.06 usd
1
1
u/xtreem_neo Shareholder 🤴 1d ago
Bruh convinced himself that something is going to happen. No body knows what is going to happen.
Tale as old as time.
1
1
u/Starfish_Croissant 1d ago
And Saylor’s actions have no impact, right? This is just based on prices and your TA, and you stand on that being THE truth?
1
1
1
1
1
u/jlittle984 11h ago
TA is useless…might as well just use an ouija board to make your trading decisions. Have a thesis, have conviction, add time. Time in the market is better than timing the market.
I’m in until the stock splits again if it takes 5 years or more.
Trad fi is undervaluing this company-when it gets right, the upside will be explosive-I don’t want to be on the sidelines when that happens. They beat earnings estimate by 32,000% last quarter and the market didn’t even care…it will someday when BTC is at 250k or more.
You do your “I’m bullish now, I’m bearish now” thing…I’m just gonna accumulate as much as I can. Next 10:1 split retires me.
1
1
1
1
u/Warchief_X 1d ago
Reading this as btc is green at +0.3% while MSTR at -1.4%. Its happening still
0
u/Similar-Target7095 1d ago
You really must have your eyes sticked to the chart to catch every little moment the stock is underperforming.
Look at the overall picture, mNAV is rising again.
2
u/Warchief_X 1d ago
you must have your eyes sticked to the chart to catch every little moment the stock is overperforming. Its literally been underperforming for the past months.
mNAV was rising for the past 2 days. After shrinking for 2 months. Thats expected.
1
u/Similar-Target7095 1d ago
Exactly, and you should be celebrating it by seeing it as a safe entry point into MSTR.
Just my humble opinion
1
u/Warchief_X 1d ago
What made you think I havent entered into the stock yet? Its entirely possible for mNAV to keep going down too.
1
u/Similar-Target7095 1d ago
Got it
But I don’t seem to understand why you’re invested into MSTR. If you don’t think that Saylor’s team and strategy will improve the premium over time, why would you put your money here ?
Maybe your time horizon is too short ?
And in the event that mNAV is trending to 1 for a while, the floor keeps rising as BTC value increases over time.
I do think the issue here is time
3
u/Warchief_X 1d ago
tbh, I was only bullish on mstr in the short term, but in the long run, i am kinda bearish. Now im bearish for both, but im down so much on it because I kept buying the dips and it kept going down. If btc goes through a major crash like the previous cycles where it loses 70%+ of its value, what will happen to mstr? I havent done enough research, but I guess they will be forced to liquidate btc. I invested because I was confident that btc will run up, which it did. but mstr's mNAV kept shrinking.
•
u/AutoModerator 2d ago
Welcome to our community! Before commenting, please take a second to read our new sticky containing our rules and guidelines.
TL;DR: We allow and encourage all viewpoints and opinions, but we have a zero tolerance policy towards negative, rude, condescending behavior and trolling/baiting.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.