Strategy has been on a downtrend from July 18th at its peak of ~$456. It's been trading sideways for the last 5 trading days, waiting to determine a direction. If it pivots, it can magnet back up to $390. If it breaks below, it may travel all the way back to the previous runup, which now acts as support at roughly $280, in which I expect buyers to snatch it up very quickly for a recovery.

The second picture overlay $IBIT on top of $MSTR. The inverse relationship picked up in early July. It's a short-term view, so it could mean absolutely nothing. Will continue to monitor the MNAV relationship.

If your a new investor looking for an entry or an existing investor looking to add more, it may be worth it to watch price movement going into September. Of course, TA is all BULLSHIT, so you can just keep stacking since you believe in the long term strategy of Strategy and one can never time the market.

As for me, I'll continue holding equities, but may buy short-term protective puts if it has a break of structure. I will not be selling covered calls b/c I believe if it does go up, it may be face ripping.

Recommendation to the board will be +0.25 or more based on 5 day VWAP (currently ~95.52).

Adam Livingston explains it beautifully for the public, comparing MSTR with McDonald's stock.

Unexpectedly, today the mNAV declined 3.7%, a level not seen since beginning of the month, when it compressed from 1.72 to 1.62. This might be a re-testing of the 1.5 low on 19 August, while BTC price consolidates. Might be waiting for a breakout, or we might be headed to 1.4. Good news is, we have already compressed so much that there is a higher change of upside.

I will be tracking mNAV changes daily and updating this table on big move days like today. I care more about mNAV than price per se, given that my strategy is to rotate when mNAV is higher than 1.85, and re-buying when it trades below 1.6.

Thoughts?

- Green line is stock price over the past 7 days

- Orange line is social dominance over the same time period

- Historically, spikes in social dominance has led to a bump in $MSTR price

*NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE*

I just found this interesting and wanted to share

MSTR Daily Discussion Thread

For the past two months, I’ve been bearish, (see my post history) and I’ve been right for the most part. $MSTR has only been going down or trading sideways, many times underperforming $BTC by 1.3 to 2.3x factor. It was the most part either 1/ BTC go up, MSTR go down, 2/ BTC go down, MSTR go down by an amplified factor. BTC go up, MSTR go sideways.

The last two days has seen a trend reversal where MSTR has remained neutral when BTC went down or up while BTC trade sideways. This is a signal of a trend reversal and sentiment reversal. I believe from here on out, as long as BTC go up, MsTR will out perform.

Other signal is BtC breaking down below $110k and recovering. $110k is now the true support and we will go up from here.

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Back of the envelope math: Right now mstr has: $70b in bitcoin $100b market cap stock $15b market cap pref and bonds

This is from their mnav page. Mnav is thus 115/70 or 1.6.

Suppose they sell $10b in stock. Their stock outstanding thus goes up 10% (110/100). Their bitcoin amount goes up 14.3% (80/70) where 80 is the new amount of bitcoin. Thus the bitcoin per share goes up about 4%.

This all assumes prices (of stock and bitcoin) don't change.

Note the higher mnav goes, the more bitcoin yield they would get per the same 10b in stock issuance.

But it seems like bitcoin yield may be harder to get in the future if mnav stays here.

Also with more common they can sell some more pref, but I'm leaving that out for now.

MSTR Daily Discussion Thread

TLDR; At $95 STRK has a 1:10 conversion at $35 to MSTR as well as $60 of STRK's price supporting a perpetual dividend of $8 annually (12.5% yield).

At a current price of $95, STRK offers exposure to MSTR through a 1:10 conversion ratio, which means roughly $35 of STRK’s value is tied to MSTR shares. The remaining $60 of STRK’s price supports a perpetual dividend that pays $8 annually, equating to a 12.5% yield. Essentially, investing in STRK is a two part opportunity.

It provides a muted exposure to MSTR’s price movements with a delta of about 0.36... meaning STRK gains or loses about 36 cents for every $1 change in MSTR. This creates downside protection, as you lose less if MSTR declines, while still capturing upside gains. As MSTR’s price falls, STRK’s losses slow down even further, and as MSTR approaches $1,000, STRK’s sensitivity to MSTR price changes will approach a full 1:1 ratio, maximizing upside participation.

Meanwhile the portion of STRK not linked to MSTR shares generates a steady annual dividend of 12.5%, providing income while you hold it. Overall, if MSTR’s price continues to rise, STRK becomes an attractive option, offering growing upside exposure with less downside risk and a healthy dividend yield on the side.

I was really excited by the array of preferred vehicles MSTR has put out there this year. That model makes a lot of sense to me in terms of converting fiat borrowing into BTC without a lot of dilution. It's clear the market has been less excited about this than I was. Can those of you who are happy to see Saylor hitting the ATM again explain why you feel that way? Is it just that you don't think the preferred instruments will generate enough BTC acquisition - or is there more to it for you?

So, that graph is obviously going to widen after opening today, but I’ll still be up, I’ll still be believing in my Msuite. Consequently, since MSTR will be dropping below my price buy/hold threshold, I’ll be buying more today. Even when it opens today, MSTR will still be around 100% up for me, but the MSTX/MSTU/MetaPlanet will be in the red, my MSTY will be around break even.

August has been August, following the cycle closely, so it’s a great opportunity today, to load up and average down.

But it’s a lousy time to be selling!!

MSTR Daily Discussion Thread

Bitcoin has given up nearly all of its gains from Friday. $MSTR, will give up its 6% gain from Friday, but it'll "amplify" those losses to 9%. HODL strong, but my prayers go out to those thinking it was a turn-around and blue skies already. Looks like a lot more pain to come until September. I wish this wasn't the case, but BTC selling off while ETH continues to pull higher toward $5K, perhaps a rotation of BTC holders to ETH holders looking to make a few bucks, hope the rotation flows back soon.

I don’t really understand insurance. What does it take to take on reinsurance policies based on its capital pool? What are the margins and draw down risks? It kind of flies in the face of the preferreds.

MSTR Daily Discussion Thread

Buying MSTR is buying BTC another route. Ppl seem to think it’s something else at its core. You can just buy BTC. What is holding MSTR give you that makes up for losing .21 for every dollar invested in btc? (Based on MSTR stock price today, you get about .79 cents of BTC for every dollar in MSTR) Makes sense for pensions that couldn’t buy crypto. How does it make sense for the average person? Faith that they’ll create new financial products? That the leverage of continually buying will compound indefinitely? On top of this, MSTR adds the risk of Saylor or company having regulatory issues, making bad decisions, and companies can collapse. Btc has only the risk of BTC failing. Bitcoin = Bitcoin. MSTR = Bitcoin plus company baggage (management decisions, software business, debt). Its price doesn’t perfectly track BTC. Holding BTC is the purest, most efficient way, and you get more BTC for every dollar invested.

Planning to drop life saving in MSTR and hold it for 5-10 years. Just wanted to know to MSTR is safe.

Bitcoin ETF has significant drag so I am not considering those and I am not tech savvy to buy bitcoin directly. MSTR is my only option.

Thank you.

I think it is a pretty good sign / green light that the institutions are buying. For example a fairly conservative Capital Group (American Funds) owns STRK in Fundamental Investors and New Economy mutual funds. They also have money in MSTR and the converts. Definitely gives me more confidence loading the boat in all things MSTR recently.

MSTR Daily Discussion Thread