r/NonCredibleDefense • u/Papacharlie06 • Jun 17 '25

Arsenal of Democracy šŸ—½ I dont like you šŸ˜

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6.3k Upvotes

98% Upvoted

256 comments sorted by

808

u/Armanus14 Jun 18 '25

I think the thing everybody is forgetting is that INDOPACOM is probably getting ready to hang itself with the amount of things that have happened in the last 72 hours.

539

u/DurfGibbles 3000 Kiwis of the ANZAC Jun 18 '25

INDOPACOM will be fighting the Chinese with bottle rockets and slingshots at this rate

156

u/Modo44 Admirał Gwiezdnej Floty Jun 18 '25

150 billion of added military funding, most of it not related to land assets, says otherwise.

79

u/ExcitingTabletop Jun 18 '25

Uh, the US Navy could probably evenly fight the combined rest of the world's ships.

I mean, YES, INDOPACOM is dangerously underfunded and supplied. You sir are entirely correct.

63

u/BigFatBallsInMyMouth Jun 18 '25

I think you are underestimating the Chinese threat. Especially when we're talking about fighting near Chinese waters.

52

u/ExcitingTabletop Jun 18 '25 edited Jun 18 '25

I assumed the US Navy wouldn't be suicidal idiots? Fighting near Chinese waters makes as much sense as fighting China by ramming its coast to sink the country into the ocean.

Yes, the US Navy is not capable of ramming China to sink it. Because no shit.

The US Navy needs to stay out of missile range of the majority of their missiles. Politely ask every tanker and cargo ship going to China to turn around. And then start sinking each and every ship that ignores the polite request. US subs get fun chance to score Chinese sub kills.

China is dependent on food and energy imports. Most tankers cannot outmaneuver and outfight an F-35. If you find one that can, I'll fully admit I underestimated the Chinese threat.

Leave destroying China's infrastructure to drones, cruise missiles, stealth bombers and the NSA's offensive electronic warfare folks. US Navy will be a big part of that.

Fun part is, US Navy and China face off over electronic warfare all the time. NCIS snags Chinese spies regularly. I had a fun time watching the US Navy team face off against their counterparts from China at Defcon's capture the flag competition couple years ago.

Chinese citizenship students with their tuition paid for by the CCP got arrested for smuggling plant fungus pathogens into the US like two weeks ago. Whether it was state sanctioned or private action is disputed. But China already SEVERELY dealt the US a blow with Huanglongbing (HLB), which has decimated US citrus production. They absolutely are looking at further avenues to attack our natural advantages.

We're already in a Cold War and I take it very seriously. But US is food and energy independent, and China isn't. China's population will drop in half over the next few decades because that's what happens when you have a One Child Policy for 50 years. US won't. We just need to decouple from China economically over those decades, and keep China boxed up until nature takes its course and they turn into Japan with decades of 0% GDP growth.

43

u/tajake Ace Secret Police Jun 18 '25

I'm really hoping for an unrestricted naval blockade if we get into a hot war with China someday. Clancy would nut. A modern-day continental system. Hell, give frigate crews right to salvage on any container ships who try to run the blockade. Payout prize money.

35

u/ExcitingTabletop Jun 18 '25 edited Jun 18 '25

Too based for the US govt to implement.

But no point in a war without a blockade. Land war is out. Coastal naval fights are out. Blockade and commerce raiding is the ONLY solution that would work. And work easily.

China has six boomers, nine attack subs, 30-40 Kilo class diesel subs, twp Kuznetsov hell-ships and one potentially real carrier, 30-40 real destroyers. Rest and majority are coastal defense boats.

Good for regional defense and could probably over-whelm Japan. That's take at least two US carrier groups to defeat in deep water. I'd send three to be safe. Each CSG is a supercarrier, 9 air squadrons, 2 missile cruisers, ten destroyers, two attack subs and re-supply ships. I'd tack on some extra subs and ASW assets, obviously.

18

u/tajake Ace Secret Police Jun 18 '25

Idk. US naval air power is a threat multiplier. Half of the Chinese fleet would be sinking before they got into range to fire on the US task force. Aegis class destroyers have never been involved in a real fight, so we have no idea how stupidly powerful fleet air defense is. And with the AWACS capability we have they won't see it coming until the vampires are on radar.

26

u/ExcitingTabletop Jun 18 '25

I wouldn't be shocked if they didn't send surface vessels at all. Satellites and long range missiles are a hell of a combo. China hasn't had a war since they invaded Vietnam and lost back in 1979.

Their subs would be their main offensive weapons. They've made improvements to their Kilos and I wouldn't discount their nuke subs. I'm doubtful China would launch nuke tipped ICBM's at blockade groups, but it'd be a concern.

Thing is, China doesn't need to invade Taiwan. They may really want to, but nothing is forcing them. Seizing Taiwan wouldn't get them anything, as chip fabs need a dozen countries to all agree to let them continue.

Spruce Pine, NC could single handedly cripple China occupied Taiwan by shutting down their quartz exports. It's a world monopoly on HPQ used for crucibles. Thankfully Spruce Pines 2194 residents have not weaponized the quartz trade.

8

u/Advanced-Budget779 Jun 18 '25

Next would be ASMLs ~14k employees at Veldhoven.

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3

u/tajake Ace Secret Police Jun 20 '25

Late reply but I'm actually from that area. My family is from Watauga county!

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12

u/Phot3k Jun 18 '25

It wasn't even that long ago we had ECM jousting with China. During Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022 the US jammed the PLN and PLAAF so hard they couldn't track her flight at any point at all despite it being practically on their doorstep.

The wechat messages on their end were hilarious from what was leaked/shared.

8

u/PutHisGlassesOn Jun 18 '25

When you say China dealt a blow with huanglongbing in the same breath as the recent fungal arrest, you make it sound like huanglongbing was intentionally introduced to American crops by the Chinese government.

0

u/FunSet4335 Jun 19 '25

People seriously discount the huge upper hand that the United States has over China. The threat of China is massively overblown and the United States doesn't really have much to fear.

8

u/ExcitingTabletop Jun 19 '25

I wouldn't go that far. US needs to do a better job against espionage, IP theft, biological threats, unfair trade practices, etc etc.

1

u/FunSet4335 Jun 19 '25

None of those changes the fact that the United States could pretty much end China simply by choking off China's food and energy imports. Espionage, IP theft, biological threats, unfair trade practices, etc, isn't going to eliminate this massive vulnerability for China.

1

u/ExcitingTabletop Jun 19 '25

You're correct. But safeguarding your advantages (food, energy, sustainable population, headhunting the best folks in the world, etc) is still important. Getting complacent is never good.

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1

u/[deleted] Jun 21 '25

Ok but you go like a mile off shore and suddenly all of their ships need water wings

1

u/[deleted] Jun 23 '25

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1

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14

u/Helllo_Man Jun 18 '25

Homie, weā€™re already rationing ballistic missile interceptors. We burned an entire yearā€™s production in a month against the fucking Houthis. In case you havenā€™t been reading along, the Chinese have a lot of ostensibly quite functional, extremely long range ballistic missiles specifically designed to engage aircraft carriers. They happen to have a lot more really really dangerous ballistic missiles than the Houthis do, and we would be the sole target of those missiles.

That is just one example. Donā€™t even get me started on the absurd quantity of TLAMs used blowing up camels over the last year, or the impact extending patrols of limited key surface assets is having on readiness. We cannot afford to keep shooting down some comparatively shitty Iranian-made ballistic missiles because some dudes in sandals keep shooting at each other in the desert. We have ships in desperate need of extensive dry dock time, and our fleet is actively shrinking at the moment as we strike the last of the Ticos from active service. Pretending the US navy is infallible is counter productive honestly.

3

u/SirEnderLord My allegiance is to the republic, to democracy! šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡øšŸ’”(American) Jun 21 '25

The US Navy is falliable

Increase the defense budget and send the factories into overdrive.

1

u/Panzerkampfwagen212 Lockheed Martin Sales Associate Jun 22 '25

Why of course the solution is another six billion to INDOPACOM

176

u/Salteen35 Jun 18 '25

I stg if we invade Iran itā€™s genuinely so over for Taiwan

160

u/PerceiveEternal Jun 18 '25

if we invade Iran itā€™s genuinely so over for *us*. Thereā€™s a reason Bibi hasnā€™t been able to goad the U.S. into invading Iran despite trying to for twenty years.

161

u/bytelines Jun 18 '25

The key was just baiting them by saying Obama didn't have the balls for it

74

u/a_simple_spectre Jun 18 '25

My lord, my leige, allfather of deals, let these mortals witness a nation building in the middle east, with a land war in Iran, let them know it can be done

1

u/[deleted] Jun 23 '25

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1

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1

u/Justnotthisway Jun 18 '25

Can you elaborate? I dont get it but sounds interesting

8

u/PerceiveEternal Jun 19 '25

Sure, but be forewarned this is going to be a long explanation because thereā€™s a lot here. Iran has absolutely horrible terrain for an invasion. Most of the country is either desert mountains or mountainous desert. They have a much larger population than Iraq or Afghanistan, roughly equal to the size of both countries put together. They have a much more sophisticated, and technically advanced society and military than either country and is widely recognized that it would be a much tougher fight than Iraq or Afghanistan even before you factor in the terrain.

Theyā€™ve been paranoid about, and preparing for, an invasion from the United States for twenty years since the U.S. had a war on either side of them and George W Bushā€˜s administration turned down an offer of assistance from Iran to help them in the conflicts (W made so many mistakes during the Afghanistan and Iraq invasion that itā€™s actually stunning).

And while their ultimate authority is collected in the ā€˜Supreme Leaderā€™, there are actually many different factions and power centers in society, the political sphere, the intelligence apparatus, and the military. For example there isnā€™t one single intelligence agency, as much as the IRGC would like to pretend otherwise, and there are multiple different military forces that are trained in unconventional warfare.

Netanyahu has been notoriously trying to goad the U.S. into attacking and invading Iran as he knows full well that Israel would lose, badly, any war between his country and Iran. Thatā€™s why, according to him, Iranā€™s been six months away from a nuclear bomb for the last fifteen years.

The U.S. military and broader intelligence community is well aware that any invasion would be a Vietnam 2.0 scenario. Netanyahu knows this as well, heā€™s been told this multiple times And Mossad is no slouch in the analysis department, but heā€™s basically pulling a Lord Farquad and saying that ā€™getting US soldiers killed by dragging them into a costly war is a sacrifice Iā€™m willing to make for Israelā€™. So heā€™s been told by the U.S. in no uncertain terms that he can go fuck himself.

Thatā€™s one of the reasons why many people in the U.S. apparatus will say that ā€˜Israel is an ally but not a friendā€˜; heā€™s ready and willing to throw the U.S. under the bus to advance Israeli interests.

Unfortunately jingoistic dumbasses like Lindsey Graham love the ā€˜Iran about to get the bomb and we need to invadeā€™ line , even though he too is well aware that this all started when W rejected Iranā€™s offer of support and they too would rather not get into a direct confrontation with the United States. And unfortunately for us here in the U.S. Donald just parrots the last thing heā€™s been told by somebody and such a high level of narcissism that he will only make the determination on am invasion based on how it affects him and not how it will affect thousands of American troops.

7

u/HotMergingAction Jun 19 '25

This assessment is only true if the point of the US invasion is to occupy territory, institute regime change, establish democracy etc.

There is no rule saying you have to do that stuff. Targeted strikes and raids to destroy their oil producing capacity and ability to develop nuclear weapons are completely feasible.

I'm not advocating for total war or limited war with Iran. Just pointing out that there is no reason to play the enemies game. We don't have to fight a long counter insurgency or comb through their deserts and mountains. Because of their terrain and economy you could likely cripple them forever with fairly limited targeting.

Plus the Taliban hate the Iranians. No reason we couldn't throw a little money their way for a little expedition from the east to split their forces.

7

u/Hillary4SupremeRuler Jun 19 '25

Yeah I don't understand why everyone is acting like dropping a couple of bunker busters on the Fordow uranium enrichment site is the same thing as Dubya mobilizing hundreds of thousands of troops to invade the entire country and occupy it for years.

1

u/SirEnderLord My allegiance is to the republic, to democracy! šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡øšŸ’”(American) Jun 21 '25

What about a limited bombing campaign? No ground forces.

27

u/Hold_onto_yer_butts Jun 18 '25

Hasnā€™t the US military been explicitly designed to fight two front wars for like the last hundred years?

53

u/Salteen35 Jun 18 '25

Can we win? Maybe

Will the us have the stomach for the casualties and equipment losses? Hell no

6

u/BestYak6625 Jun 19 '25

It's a nation with essentially no air force and no anti air abilities and a populace highly unsupportive of the government. This will shape up to be more like the gulf wars than Afghanistan or Vietnam.Ā 

4

u/WholeLottaBRRRT Registered Flair Offender Jun 19 '25

Meh, thereā€™s nothing more rallying to the flag than a foreign invasion, so i doubt that the citizens wouldnā€™t support the govt

59

u/A_Seiv_For_Kale WHOgoslavia?? Jun 18 '25

IIRC policy shifted recently from a "win two theaters" goal to a "win and stalemate" one.

Stalemate is fine if you expect to have allies that will come and help you, but, well...

10

u/prismstein Your average B-21 Raiderussy enjoyer Jun 18 '25

that was before the 2000s
right now it's fight on two fronts, never said anything about winning them

1

u/[deleted] Jun 23 '25

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1

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67

u/qwertyalguien Jun 18 '25

I just imagine whenever they have something ready, Trump sends some bullshit 10 minutes before leaving hours that makes them throw everything into the trash ans pull an all nighter.

58

u/Illustrious-Plan6052 Jun 18 '25

I imagine the stocks of nicotine, alcohol, and caffeine companies have skyrocketed alongside cartel profits lol

6

u/tajake Ace Secret Police Jun 18 '25

What paperwork is involved in selling energy drinks and cigarettes on a cart outside of the Pentagon? /j

3

u/Illustrious-Plan6052 Jun 18 '25

That may not be a joke I know outside / / inside are different but the Unsub crew was allowed to bring 12 white claws in through lots of paperwork

8

u/OneFrenchman Representing the shed MIC Jun 18 '25

No boats, no submarines, canceling planes, but Palantir will know who the bad guys are, and as soon as nukes are in orbit, it's gonna be possible to nuke them from orbit!

5

u/venerable-vertebrate Jun 18 '25

3000 stomp rockets of INDOPACOM

1.0k

u/Puzzleheaded_Gene909 Jun 17 '25

Mike? Whatā€™s the oil price up to right now? Wh-whatā€™s it up to 73 dollars a barrel? 73?

550

u/starrpamph Washing machine repair Jun 17 '25

Gas is going to be 0.99 /gal!!!!- Some old folks that have 24 browser hijackers and aol desktop

141

u/QuestStarter Jun 18 '25

AOL browser was honestly rad as shit at least up into the 2010-2015 era (idk what it's like now)

Being able to make mini windows in the browser tab itself without having to alt-tab 10 times to get to the right one was quite šŸ‘Œ

140

u/GaaraMatsu 3,000 Blackhawks Teleporting to Allah, and Back Again Jun 18 '25

...yes, you belong on this sub.

70

u/starrpamph Washing machine repair Jun 18 '25

Dude pays the $18/mo for aol gold

35

u/YYFlurch 6.02 x 10^23 Egotesticles Jun 18 '25

I used AOL CDs in my garden, suspended by 4-lbs test fishing line, to keep the birds away from my goodies.

Best usage evah!

4

u/GaaraMatsu 3,000 Blackhawks Teleporting to Allah, and Back Again Jun 19 '25

I can only imagine what archeologists will make of those CDs; I wouldn't be surprised if they define an era by their presence.

5

u/AKblazer45 Jun 19 '25

I used to use those hanging from fishing lines to trap lynx.

62

u/A_R_A_N_F Jun 18 '25 edited Jun 18 '25

I would say Iran plotting to assassinate him, kind off made him just a bit biased against them.

As released on November 9, 2024. *DOJ announces charges in Iranian plot to kill Donald Trump *

Edit: he just mentioned it in an interview today a few hours after this post and I am quoting ā€œI used to be the hunted, now I am the hunter".

Trump remembers.

51

u/ToaArcan Harrier Supremacist Jun 18 '25

Trump remembers.

That's quite the feat for him.

2

u/SirEnderLord My allegiance is to the republic, to democracy! šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡øšŸ’”(American) Jun 21 '25

His aide makes sure he remembers

6

u/new_name_who_dis_ Jun 19 '25

He almost started a war with Iran in his first term. I donā€™t think he knew about the assassination attempt yet lol. He just doesnā€™t like Iran.

1

u/A_R_A_N_F Jun 19 '25

Almost doesn't count.

He didn't start anything yet now, either.

2

u/new_name_who_dis_ Jun 19 '25

Well it de-escalated because Iran didnā€™t retaliate. Not because of restraint by trump.

-11

u/Buriedpickle Colonel, these kinds of things, we cannot do them anymore Jun 18 '25

Nah, he got a stern talking to by MIC people and Netanyahu. Money makes the world go round, and the peacemaker aspirations of a dementia patient can't change that.

407

u/yoy22 Jun 18 '25

If I had a nickel for every time we invaded a country in the Middle East because of WMD, Iā€™d have 2 nickels.

140

u/SubbyTex Jun 18 '25

Which isnā€™t a lot, but itā€™s kinda weird itā€™s happened twice

10

u/Erock482 Jun 19 '25

Third times the charm they say

69

u/NoSpawnConga West Taiwan under temporary CCP occupation Jun 18 '25

USA society just wanted to fuck someone up and WMD's didn't matter in the slightest, and you can't convince me otherwise.

52

u/yoy22 Jun 18 '25

I absolutely agree.

People were still pissed after 9/11. And Iraq was right there.

I donā€™t remember the surveys but I recall people thought Iraq might have had something to do with 9/11 as well

7

u/Alarming_Orchid šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø Against all enemies, foreign and domestic Jun 21 '25

Actually Iā€™m pretty sure not wanting to go to the sandbox again is the only thing US society can agree on

1

u/ShoddyRevolutionary Jun 22 '25

I wish you were right but unfortunately the people who donā€™t want to go and the people who are in power are two different groups.

121

u/Chaoticgaythey Mossad Issued Pager Jun 17 '25

I'm so glad I picked up some extra OXY shares yesterday

87

u/MackDaddy1861 Jun 17 '25

Reiben turns out to be right about everything and is the only one to surviveā€¦

47

u/unfunnysexface F-17 Truther Jun 18 '25

Ryan and Upham survive too. Remember the bulk of the movie is Ryan "remembering" events he didn't witness.

126

u/lambakins Jun 18 '25

Just sayinā€¦ TACO

32

u/Suspicious_Lock_889 Jun 18 '25

Yeah, would you like that with extra cheese?

34

u/1dot21gigaflops F-35 is a watered down F-22 export version Jun 18 '25

Yes, the really fake orange American stuff

26

u/FLARESGAMING that guy who fucks planes Jun 18 '25

As an obsesive motherfucker, what rifle is that.... its not an m1 garand, thomposon, or carbine, its not a k98k, any german SMG or an StG... so wtf man.

48

u/Papacharlie06 Jun 18 '25

Its a B.A.R.

38

u/FLARESGAMING that guy who fucks planes Jun 18 '25

FUUUUUUUUCK

Yeah im gonna go kill myself now for not recognizing one of the most ICONIC GOD DAMN FUCKING MUZZLE BREAKS EVER

See ya never ig.

1

u/javfan69 Jun 18 '25

"The bitch tried to drown me!"

233

u/Jackbuddy78 Jun 17 '25

Honestly I really hope this isn't true, the result would look like Iraq.Ā 

334

u/Papacharlie06 Jun 17 '25

If I was a betting man (and I don't gamble much) I'd say it would probably be an air campaign only.

109

u/patriot_man69 3000 YF-23s of Northrop Grumman Jun 17 '25

highway of death 2: tom cruise boogaloo

136

u/Soap_Mctavish101 Jun 17 '25

There is no way in hell that an air campaign will permanently kill the Iranian nuclear program. It might set it back but they can just start over once the campaign ends. Assuming the regime is still there of course.

168

u/Optimal-Kitchen6308 Jun 17 '25

the play currently seems to be crush the current government, remove the IRGC so they can't stabilize it (they've mostly bene only hitting IRGC and not regular army), given the depth of their intelligence success they appear to have a lot of help inside, at that point maybe there is a succession plan or chaos either way serves their purposes

136

u/GripAficionado Jun 17 '25

I sure hope so, a secular Iran would be amazing, I'll take any improvement here really.

Also if they were to severe their close ties to Russia, that would be great.

71

u/[deleted] Jun 17 '25

[deleted]

36

u/whythecynic No paperwork, no foul Jun 18 '25

Rolls-Royce: "Time to dust off the Shah Shed, ladsā€¦"

7

u/Forkliftapproved Any planeā€™s a fighter if youā€™re crazy enough Jun 18 '25

Normal car makers at this point

4

u/Khar-Selim Jun 18 '25

bro if we bomb them hard enough to cause regime collapse they are gonna hate us ten times as hard. This ain't how to get a secular Iran.

7

u/crack_pop_rocks Jun 18 '25

Also the most ruthless mother fuckers tend to come out on top from the power vacuum of regime change.

2

u/evenmorefrenchcheese Jun 18 '25

We could get secular Iran out of this. They'll still want to bomb the Jews, considering the damage needed to destroy the regime purely through military force.

2

u/Khar-Selim Jun 18 '25

So a secular Iran that only r/atheism would like, and most definitely not an improvement.

8

u/BiffSlick Jun 18 '25

Wonā€™t Trump hand it to Putin as a gift?

9

u/Whentheangelsings Jun 18 '25

Trump's not pro Putin he's just an idiot. If he was pro Putin he would have cut support for Israel the moment they hit Iran.

5

u/Common_Armadillo_965 Jun 18 '25

Hard disagree. Putin is an expert at feeding Trump's need for constant narcissistic supply. And Putin embodies the image of ostentatious imperial power that Trump aspires to. And Trump's persecution complex identifies with Putin and Russia because of Mueller's investigation.

If Trump were any more pro-Putin he would be building a shrine to him in the Lincoln bedroom.

7

u/Whentheangelsings Jun 18 '25

Bro Trump approved weapons sales to Ukraine and resumed aid. That's the exact opposite thing Putin wants.

0

u/Common_Armadillo_965 Jun 18 '25

Gotta give you credit for keeping it non-credible!

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u/Dappington Jun 18 '25

I can't think of an example of regime change being achieved through air power. If they're supposing that they can just bomb the Iranians until the populace rises up to overthrow their government... lol. There might be a few armed resistance groups in the minority regions but as far as I can tell there is no serious resistance in the Persian parts of the country.

35

u/3050_mjondalen Jun 18 '25

What will Netanyahu do? No proxies left to bash, Syria might stabilize over time despite his best efforts, and Iran might become atleast "friendlier" if there is a change of government. Doesn't he somewhat require an outside enemy to stay in power? Will he start attacking other neighbours?

40

u/RamTruckRightBehindU Jun 18 '25

Steal a touch of land for a settlement in the West Bank until called on again the next war, like a modern Cincinnatus

18

u/YYFlurch 6.02 x 10^23 Egotesticles Jun 18 '25

Bibi will do anything and everything to stay IN power and OUT of prison, 'cause he damn sure KNOWS he's corrupt as fuck and he's going to prison, along with wifey-poo, if he ever leave office. That's somethin' he and Trump share. En plus, he'll do anything for the hard right to help fulfill their Super-Duper-Mega-Israel project, or whatever it's called, wet dream thingy. I think that encompasses huge swaths of Jordan and Syria and Lebanon and Kansas. And why not? Unlike Ukraine, Trump will ""sell"" to Israel anything they want in the way of munitions. Nukes are on sale right now.

Invasion : Real war for real people.

2

u/Silk_Cut_XJR14 Jun 18 '25

Iā€™m honestly surprised you havenā€™t been downvoted to hell for saying the ā€œquiet partā€ about Netanyahu out loud. Him & ben Gvir are disturbingly popular on this sub.

The guy is literally an Israeli Marine le Pen/whatever the AFD leader is called.

31

u/pheeeeeeeeeeex Jun 18 '25

Iā€™m gonna be honest, if Bibi succeeds in toppling the entire Iranian theocratic base, which by extension devastates their proxies in Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis, his personal rating might go up quite a bit

20

u/TheSoftwareNerdII Pager made by Mossad Telecommunications LTD Jun 17 '25

Pahlavi returns and makes Iran Persia a proper Democracy, unlike his father's Kingdom or his rival's theocracy?

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2

u/OneFrenchman Representing the shed MIC Jun 18 '25

Too bad strategic bombing never works without boots on the ground.

Well it does work, usually it beefs up support for the regime.

2

u/DefTheOcelot Jun 18 '25

you cant do any of that with bombing lol

27

u/mickeyt1 Jun 18 '25

So then it gets bombed again, much earlier in the process next time? Their air defense ainā€™t shit, itā€™s just target practice. Sometimes geopolitics is about buying space, not permanent solutions

12

u/BiffSlick Jun 18 '25

Mowing the lawn, as the Israeli generals say

1

u/mob19151 Jun 23 '25

They have lawns in Israel?

42

u/AlpineDrifter Jun 18 '25

Uh, nobody in a position of power believed that to be the case either. Thatā€™s why Israel opened the war with Mossad killing most of their important nuclear scientists.

When you say ā€˜they can just start overā€™, just realize that almost all of ā€˜theyā€™, are dead already.

29

u/CastrumFerrum Jun 18 '25

Also, the last time Israel did this, it threw the whole programm back to the start, and it took them three decades to get this far again.

14

u/SubPrimeCardgage Jun 18 '25

I have no doubt those tunnels are deep enough that even the GBU57 probably can't collapse them. That said, every tunnel has to have an entrance. Maybe an area denial strategy could work where the entrance just gets bombed periodically. For the record I don't like that strategy either as the US getting involved is going to backfire like it always does in the middle east.

23

u/Scaevus Jun 18 '25

Assuming the regime is still there

You know a week ago I wouldā€™ve thought you were crazy, but that was before Israel decapitated the Iranian military twice.

43

u/RadicalCandle šŸ¦ƒ3000 Brown Emus of Australia Jun 17 '25

Assuming the regime is still there of course.

That's the point of Israel simping so hard for their sugar daddy to come pimp slap the shit out of this customer that keeps pissing off everybody else in the club

U.S has the only non nuclear weapon capable of utterly destroying their last known underground nuclear plant

60

u/Low-HangingFruit Jun 17 '25

Take a 8 inch howitzer barrel, pack it full of explosives and an armored tip and slap a jdam kit on it.

I love America.

18

u/RadicalCandle šŸ¦ƒ3000 Brown Emus of Australia Jun 17 '25

Russians: *...write that down, WRITE THAT DOWN!"

11

u/AntiqueCheesecake876 Jun 18 '25

Why? They donā€™t have any barrels left.

Edit: I guess shot-out barrels would work.

11

u/orrzxz 3000 (and counting) Funny Intel CPUs of Mossad Jun 17 '25

Watch and learn, boyo.

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u/BootDisc Down Periscope was written by CIA Operative Pierre Sprey Jun 18 '25

Yeah, Iā€™m not saying we canā€™t do it without a ground war, but in war, itā€™s better to be pessimistic.

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u/[deleted] Jun 17 '25

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1

u/Kilahti Jun 18 '25

The air campaign would merely convince everyone that the only way to protect your country, is to be under a nuclear umbrella.

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u/Teonvin Jun 18 '25

US can shell out the money to do the air stuff and leave Israel to do the groud work.

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u/[deleted] Jun 18 '25

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u/ShahinGalandar Jun 18 '25

that would be unfair to the Iranians

but giving them an opportunity to pull out the Ayatollah by his hair to hang him on a crane and his revolutionary guard goons too, that's a completely different thing...

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u/nicman24 Jun 18 '25

A boat will catch a stray and things are going to get really proporsional

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u/nick4fake Proudly Ukrainian warrior Jun 18 '25

Lol, only if Iran simply does nothing

It has some funny left

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u/Lanoir97 Jun 18 '25

Can we send in some ground guys to bring the cats home at least?

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u/seancbo Jun 17 '25

The problem with Iraq wasn't the war or even the invasion, it was the occupation. I highly doubt Trump wants to get involved in anything beyond airstrikes

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u/EgorKPrime Jun 17 '25

Occupation has been seen as a major failure by everyone regardless of political affiliation. America is not good at nation building, and I doubt any sitting president save for Buchanan or Bush would ever want to try again in the modern era.

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u/[deleted] Jun 17 '25

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u/GripAficionado Jun 17 '25

The biggest problem with Iraq was the timing, they should have done it after Desert Storm. Ousting Saddam at the time would have been much better.

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u/furiouscarp Jun 18 '25

lol you think Trump has a plan?

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u/BrianWantsTruth Jun 17 '25

Not after that paradeā€¦

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u/[deleted] Jun 17 '25

I really don't think so. Iraq was a secular dictator ruling over an Islamic extremist population. Iran is an Islamic extremist dictator ruling over a secular population.

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u/Dunedune NATO priest Jun 18 '25

Iraq had plenty of seculars just like Iran today, mostly in the large cities.

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u/Youutternincompoop Jun 18 '25

and of course when the USA set up a new government it immediately carried out a 'de-baathification' campaign that essentially kicked out all these secularist beurocrats who knew how to run the country and realised the only non-baathist replacements were a bunch of inexperienced Islamists and minority populations in areas where they were present.

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u/Dunedune NATO priest Jun 18 '25

I mean, Trump sorta did/doing that?

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u/in_allium Jun 18 '25

Except to the US.Ā 

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u/john_andrew_smith101 Revive Project Sundial Jun 17 '25

I got no idea why people think we're currently staging a land invasion of Iran. At most, the US will be dropping a MOP onto an underground nuclear facility, after that, shooting down missiles that Iran has threatened to fire at US bases.

The only assets we have in place are planes and we're moving a carrier strike group to the area. You cannot conduct regime change using just air power. You need ground troops, and that is not in place.

Additionally, there is no political mandate, in any sense of the word, to overthrow the Islamic republic. You could probably sell the goal of preventing nuclear proliferation, that has been on the table since the Bush years and never got taken off. But as soon as Trump gets directly involved, if he does, he's gonna enter a political hornet's nest, and even he probably wouldn't survive an invasion of Iran.

What I see right now is Trump acting like a big tough guyTM on twitter or whatever he's using, and people are eating it up, when they should remember that Trump is a giant pussy who is easily distracted.

That said, a land invasion of Iran wouldn't look like Iraq, it would be much worse, because the terrain is a nightmare, and even a nominally democratic society like the Islamic republic can rally people to a far greater degree than a dictator like Saddam Hussein. Also, Iranians are not Arabs, they lack the cultural factors that make Arabs suck at war.

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u/RadicalCandle šŸ¦ƒ3000 Brown Emus of Australia Jun 17 '25

Also, Iranians are not Arabs, they lack the cultural factors that make Arabs suck at war.

What kind of cultural factors?

If anything, I'd argue the secular and overall cultural differences is what inspires confidence in the people of Iran changing things for the better - assuming the IRGC can be excised from the host body without too much trauma

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u/john_andrew_smith101 Revive Project Sundial Jun 17 '25

https://www.meforum.org/middle-east-quarterly/why-arabs-lose-wars

This is a deep dive, though an old one, of why Arab militaries suck, and the cultural factors that lead to it.

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u/RadicalCandle šŸ¦ƒ3000 Brown Emus of Australia Jun 18 '25

Thanks, that was a fantastic read that explains a lot of the pressure points that opposition forces have been able to exploit in Arab standing forces over history.Ā 

It also has interesting implications for foreign instructors; for example, his credibility is diminished if he must resort to a book.

I thought this part was funny in juxtaposition to the anecdote of the jealous Egyptian commander. Keeping freshly-translated Arabic tank manuals out of the hands of the crews that would've needed it the most represents such a fundamental breakdown of trust at a basic level

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u/john_andrew_smith101 Revive Project Sundial Jun 18 '25

In my military training, rote memorization was important in the sense that you knew exactly which part of which book to reference if a problem came up. In fact, not relying on a book was grounds was disqualification.

I wouldn't call keeping manuals out of the hands of tankers a breakdown of trust, but a jealous hoarding of knowledge, for the explicit purpose of justifying the existence of that officer.

Although you are also right, they don't trust each other at all, only the non state militant groups show that kind of trust, which is why they're more effective than regular militaries.

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u/RadicalCandle šŸ¦ƒ3000 Brown Emus of Australia Jun 18 '25

only the non state militant groups show that kind of trust, which is why they're more effective than regular militaries.

And all these intermittent breaks in the chain make it all the more clearer why Israelis have adopted such an aggressive military doctrine with their larger immediate neighbours. Knock out the brain before it can send a signal down to the limbs to retaliate

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u/[deleted] Jun 18 '25

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18

u/Imperium_Dragon Jun 18 '25

Donā€™t worry, this time we have clearly defined goals and clear communication with the potential new regimeā€¦right?

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u/unfunnysexface F-17 Truther Jun 18 '25

Well we've got someone saying their new regime will be popular because reasons. Such things have never lead to the need for a cadre of advisors on the ground and if it did it definitely did not escalate further.

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u/crash______says Jun 18 '25

Relax, the new regime will be greeted as liberators.

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u/[deleted] Jun 18 '25

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u/SlowSpeedHighDrag Jun 18 '25

Dude it'll be about 10 times worse than Iraq.

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u/Ombank Bullpup the M7 Jun 18 '25

Everyone things Rumsfeld and Bremer were the ultimate idiots. Wait till you see who Trump has on deck.

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u/Wolfensniper What about Patlabor? Jun 18 '25

Bow over Russia, quiet about China, and only attack the less significant Iran because Bibi demands it, ngl it's just a show of cowardice

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u/oracle989 Jun 18 '25

Donny's soft and weak

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u/iskandar- Jun 18 '25

I just hope that we (the UK) have the sense not to follow you all into the middle east again. Though it could be worse, it could be afghanistan... again...

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u/Rus_Shackleford_ Jun 17 '25

I donā€™t particularly like them either, but I donā€™t think we should be shooting them. Israel is not worth the life of a single American servicemember.

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u/Slayer7_62 Jun 17 '25

My grandfather would heartily disagree with that. He landed on Omaha and stood by our government even after everything he saw and all the friends he lost.

If he wasnā€™t cremated he would be rolling in his grave seeing what the two countries became.

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u/[deleted] Jun 18 '25

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u/[deleted] Jun 17 '25

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u/Slayer7_62 Jun 18 '25

Like I said, heā€™d be rolling in his grave because of them too.

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u/DomSchraa Jun 18 '25

Idk

Iran is a different country, with the terrain and population size it could turn into a slaughter for all sides

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u/Modo44 Admirał Gwiezdnej Floty Jun 18 '25

More like Afghanistan on steroids. Bigger, better equipped, and with all kinds of FUN stashed away.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 18 '25

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29

u/Wheeljack239 Iā€™ve had sexual intercourse with a Bradley Jun 17 '25

I donā€™t have much to add, so Iā€™ll just say SAVING PRIVATE RYAN?! FAVORITE MOVIE SPOTTED!

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u/Urrgon 100 disappearing tanks of Poland Jun 18 '25

While Iranā€™s ayatollahs suck, itā€™s also definitely true that state of Izrael and goddamn Bibi Netanyahu have way to much influence over the US.

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u/throwawaypervyervy Jun 18 '25

They've been playing the 'Iran is months away from having nukes!' record since the 90's. Annoys me that we're financing universal healthcare and college for the boy who cried wolf.

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u/theBigRis Jun 19 '25

Israel has been pulling off covert ops in Iran for like the last 30 years to keep it from progressing. Itā€™s not the boy who cried wolf, more like the boy who set a bunch of traps for the wolf and he kept getting up after being tripped.

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u/[deleted] Jun 18 '25

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u/theBigRis Jun 19 '25

Exactly, itā€™s more like if New Jersey or Maryland set up universal healthcare on their own and other states complained about when they could also do it.

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u/_oranjuice Jun 18 '25

Please, for the love of isr... God let me nuke iran

All i want to do is see burning flesh again

  • Holden Bloodfeast, 98

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u/AnanasDuEnfer Jun 18 '25

Back to the sandpit like israel's good little bitch, can't wait.

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u/MichaelEmouse šŸš€ Jun 18 '25

Which movie/TV show is that from?

1

u/[deleted] Jun 18 '25

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1

u/No_Apartment3941 Jun 18 '25

Is there actually any chance in hell of the Iranian people being able to rise up, or would that just be a Libya 2.0?

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u/oripash Ain't strong, just long. We'll eat it bit by bit. Like a salami. Jun 19 '25

This didnā€™t age well. Something something TACO stands for something something two weeks.

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u/oUps6TudBLRtM3FBfByC Jun 18 '25

Lahey: "Ray, you're welcome to bunk out there tonight if you want."

Ray: "Nah, I don't think so Jimmy."

Lahey: "Is it because I don't have a ramp?"

Ray: "No Jimmy, it's because I don't like you, buddy. I'd rather sleep on the god damn ground, capisce?"

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u/SigmaBattalion Jun 18 '25

Yeah. No. It's definitely the first one.