Really low shiny raids for Zacian?

[u/Foutjeh]

Might be tinfoil conspiracy but so many people went really (REALLY!) dry on Zacian yesterday. 4 friends all 50+ no shiny.

I did 82 raids no shiny. Saw some post for 100+ aswell.

Is this just confirmation BIAS or was there some testing going on for how deep our pockets are?

Please post your results below!

[u/AN0NIM07]

Got non background shiny on 85th Raid. Did another 30 for a BG Shiny but no luck. Saw this type situation for more players. Of course there were also bunch of lucky players getting BG Shiny on first raid. 2-3 shiny on 1st 10 Raid

I Had good luck on Zamazenta shiny. Had to do 30 for 1st shiny. Got a BG Shiny on another id,so didn't do more raids.

The problem is we cannot complain due to RNG Factor. Niantic didn't disclose any RNG Rates & we also don't know other than player research data. So, If another player research data is done, we can assume whether the RNG rate was down or not.

[u/justindigo88 → u/AN0NIM07]

I feel like my odds are pretty normal in general.

However, the last few Fests have been abysmal. For GoFest, I got my first shiny Zacian after 130 raids and 90 for Zacian. I did a total of 310 raids for 4 shinies which is about 1:80. 1 BG shiny.

Unova Tour was similar with Kyurem. I did 150 raids for 2 shinies, 1 BG shiny.

These two events I spent the most money by far, which is when it’s really unfortunate to do so poorly. I’m not going to entertain any conspiracies here, but I know games like Candy Crush etc. have certain advantages while your F2P and as soon as you spend money you lose those advantages and have to pay for them.

I’m not saying it’s happening here, but it would be interesting if certain odds were applied to accounts based on spending. Once people are willing to spend money they will likely continue to do so. This would be nearly impossible to prove in PoGo, but it would be interesting if it could be studied.

I don’t think this is actually happening, but I would be interested in seeing the data.

[u/Special-Print → u/AN0NIM07]

Got 3 Shiny(1 BG Shiny) in 20 raids!

[u/FatherOfTwoGreatKids → u/AN0NIM07]

Rate is 1:20.

[u/gheldean → u/FatherOfTwoGreatKids]

Supposed to be, yes, but anecdotally it definitely didn't seem that high

[u/elconquistador1985 → u/gheldean]

"I did 20 and didn't get a shiny" does not disprove 1 in 20.

That's like flipping tails twice in a row with a coin and then saying "this coin isn't 50:50".

[u/Tarnished_of_Irithyl → u/elconquistador1985]

This is a bit different though, if they are telling the truth that is 0/280+ raids which is still statistically possible but the chance of that is way below 1%. 60 raids is a 90% chance of getting a shiny with 1:20. So it is more like flipping tails 50 times in a row and being suspicious of the coin.

[u/elconquistador1985 → u/Tarnished_of_Irithyl]

It is not at all like a string of 50 heads in a row.

A common math/stats class homework assignment is to flip a coin 100 times. It's also common to cheat and just write a sequence of H and T "randomly". The problem is that a person will not write a string of 6 or 7 H or T in a row because that's "not random". It has about 1% probability of happening in 6 or 7 flips. However, it is very likely that such a sequence will appear somewhere within 100 actually flipped coins.

In other words, if you've got something that is 1/20 odds, it will be very likely to see quite long sequences without a hit within a sequence that is long, even though the probability of not hitting 100 times in a row is small (about 0.6%, about the same as getting 7 heads in a row).

[u/redpony6 → u/Tarnished_of_Irithyl]

way below 1%, sure. let's say 0.01%. so that means for every 10,000 pgo players, one would have this luck

estimates online vary, but i'm seeing numbers of between 30 and 90 million pgo players. so split the difference at 60 million, then, if every one of them spammed zacian raids, we'd see about 6,000 stories of luck as bad as that

obviously all 60 million didn't, but my point is that something like "odds of below 1%" isn't as meaningful as it sounds in a game of tens of millions of players

[u/Tarnished_of_Irithyl → u/redpony6]

Yeah I understand that and agree with it, I don't think the odds have been changed and it was just extreme bad luck, I was just trying to push back on the "I did 20 raids with no shiny, I got 2 heads in a row so it isn't 50:50". When people encounter the more extreme sides of luck suspicion will be raised so it would be better to counter it with the numbers. I shouldn't have engauged with hyperbole on the chances with the coin, and turns out 13 tails in a row is 0.01% which would make you suspicious of the coin.

Flagging up these events and seeing what the response it can help determine if something has been changed under the hood, which is something that will need to be tracked with the game under new management. If they had discretley changed the rate to 1:30 how would it get detected and worked out?

[u/elconquistador1985 → u/Tarnished_of_Irithyl]

If they had discretley changed the rate to 1:30 how would it get detected and worked out?

It's a quite complicated problem. You could use a Bayesian probability density function approach or you could choose a confidence interval and see how many trials you need to do to reach some chosen confidence level that the probability is p.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Checking_whether_a_coin_is_fair&wprov=rarw1

Under the latter approach above, we have an expected probability of 0.05, so sp = 0.2179/sqrt(n). To get 50% confidence on that probability with an uncertainty of E=0.001 (ie. 50% confidence that it's between 0.049 and 0.051), you need Z² sp² / E² trials, which comes out to 21610 trials.

In particle physics, you see people talk about "5 sigma" for discovery of a new particle, for example. That's a result with a probability of occurring of 5.7e-7. That would require 1,187,500 trials to conclude that the probability is 0.05+/- 0.001 with 5 sigma confidence.

Under the OP, they did 930 trials, which would let you say that it's 0.05 +/- 0.005 with only 50% confidence, ie. a 50% chance it's inside the range 0.045 and 0.055 and 50% that it's outside that range, OP got about 4%, which is unlucky but given the quantity of data it is not sufficient to conclude that the true probability is not 0.05.

Basically, you need a ton of data. At least hundreds of thousands of raid results, more likely in the millions.

[u/UseApprehensive3343 → u/Tarnished_of_Irithyl]

p value = 0.0991% IF (and this is a very big IF that would require all of them sending in their pokédex with 0 shinies. This is extremely unlikely. Considering 5% is required to be considered “significant” I would like to create a poll on how many shinies/total raids done. But this still does have bias. People quit after getting 1 shiny /bg shiny so your rates will lean higher assuming everyone is willing to take a minute to fill it out.

[u/FatherOfTwoGreatKids → u/gheldean]

Anecdotal evidence from people who want to complain isn’t statistical evidence of anything.

[u/dardios → u/FatherOfTwoGreatKids]

We had ~100 people raiding all weekend and only about 20 came down with Shinies. Yes it's anecdotal, but it's a decent sample size. I think the rates were lower than 1:20

[u/Federal-Nebula-9154 → u/dardios]

We had 5 people and put our phones in a circle to show what everyone got every raid while we were grinding. It seemed pretty typical 1/3rd chance of background and 1/20 shiny rate imo.

[u/ThatPlayWasAwful → u/dardios]

The problem is that "~100 people", "raiding all weekend" and "only about 20" are all doing a lot of heavy lifting. 

If you can say with absolute certainty that you had 100 people, they all did 20 raids, and there were 20 or less shinies, yeah that's not great luck.

If you only had 90 people, they averaged 5-10 raids a person, and 25-30 got shinies, that's pretty close to expectation.

E: if 90 people averaged 7.5 raids, expectation for 675 chances would be 34 (33.75) shinies.

E2: used chatgpt because probability is confusing...

(Eyeball test says it looks right but I'm an idiot so if somebody is better at math please correct me)

90 people averaging 7.5 raids (675 chances): 

At least 20 shinies: 99.41% chance that your group will get at least 20 shinies

At least 25: 94.9%

At least 30: 77%

100 people averaging 10 raids (1000 chances):

at least 20: 99.9995%

At least 25: 99.985%

At least 30: 99.86%

As you can see, pretty large difference depending on the ballpark estimates, which (as is being stated up and down this thread) is the issue with loosely collected, anecdotal data.

[u/AutisticPenguin2 → u/ThatPlayWasAwful]

Downvoted for using chat gpt to do maths

[u/SirHolyCow → u/FatherOfTwoGreatKids]

Yeah, ‘anecdotal’ is a word that should pretty much not be allowed on this sub

[u/waltzdisney123 → u/FatherOfTwoGreatKids]

We know... but Niantic has been known to pull crap. So, OP is, in a way, gathering evidence to see if the rates really line up, statically, speaking.

[u/oupas327]

Both my friend and I also had really poor odds. I think I went 1/50, friend went 0/200. Normally not the type of person to doubt statistics, but this is a bit too extreme to be the usual rate imo.

[u/KittenOnHunt → u/oupas327]

0/200 would have unironically made me go insane. Necrozma GoFest i had my first and only shiny after 98 Raids and i was close to ending it all already

[u/oupas327 → u/KittenOnHunt]

I was already concerned when he mentioned that he was 0/100, woke up today to see that he ended at 0/200 and couldn't believe what I was seeing 😭

[u/big_sugi → u/oupas327]

Even at 1:20 odds, the probability of going 0-for-200 is “only” 1 in 30,000 or so. With tens of thousands of people playing, that’s not really so implausible.

But i do wonder what the actual rate was. Across 50 or so raids, we got two shinies — one of each.

[u/StardustOasis → u/oupas327]

We had a group of 8 people, it took 10 raids for one of us to get a shiny. Not necessarily extreme, but suspicious.

[u/Foutjeh → u/oupas327]

Exactly! Felt more like 1/40 then 1/20. It justifies some odds...

[u/jaffacakejj → u/Foutjeh]

I got really lucky and got 3 shinies out of my first 4 raids, didn't get any out of the rest (did around 20 between me and my dad). He also only did 1 Zametta and got 1 shiny. I think we lucked out big time

[u/sbenfsonwFFiF → u/oupas327]

I got 2 in 10 raids, so it evens out across the board I imagine

[u/rhihuahua]

My boyfriend did 23 Zacian raids, and I did 85. We got 1 shiny across both of us.

Meanwhile, he did 14 Zamazenta raids, I did 34, and we got 3 shinies...

I'm sure the people who got the expected 1/20 shiny rate aren't commenting, but it's still comforting to see we weren't the only ones seeing this :(

[u/Objective-Ad3821 → u/rhihuahua]

2/72 on zamazenta but 8/96 on zacian for me.

So yeah it's all about luck in the end.

[u/likesbigbots → u/Objective-Ad3821]

4/12 on Zamazenta (my friends got 3 shinies), 0/12 on Zacian (no shinies in my friend group). It's a small sample size but it feels like Zacian had a way lower chance for shinies.

[u/Secret_Associate8445 → u/likesbigbots]

Not for me. 0/35 for Zam and 3/36 for Zac. Got the 3 Zac within my last 10 passes Lol. 

[u/ElisabethSchmidt → u/likesbigbots]

0/62 Zamazenta and 2/55 Zacian (got it on the first 3 raids)

But i was able to catch a hundo from both of them which is nice.

[u/LtPeppy]

1 shiny after 70 raids...

[u/Nisi-Marie → u/LtPeppy]

1 shiny, no back ground, 74th raid

[u/miunaki]

The fact that so many people are saying they did 50-200 raids and got one or none (me included) makes me feel like it was botched. This event feels like it’s just to make money - more so than others. I’m an occasional p2p player and never been more disappointed.

[u/ChargeRiflez → u/miunaki]

All events are just so they can make money FYI 

[u/Sirlothar → u/miunaki]

It could be people that did get them also don't want to brag about it and it makes it seem worse than it was. Me and wife did about 35 each so 70ish total and we ended up with 5 shiny background between us, I got 3 and she got 2.

[u/Chocolate_Mage → u/Sirlothar]

It could be people that did get them also don't want to brag about it and it makes it seem worse than it was. Me and wife did about 35 each so 70ish total and we ended up with 5 shiny background between us, I got 3 and she got 2.

Pretty much this. I only 7 raids and I got two shinies. I don't care about them so I wish I could trade them to the people that like them since I only did the raids with the intention of just getting enough for form change.

But yes, people who got shinies in a few raids aren't going post about it because people are very emotional about being screwed over by probability.

[u/OneFootTitan → u/Sirlothar]

Yeah pretty much. I did 52 Zacian raids and got 5 shinies. I was 1 in 26 at first then I got 4 in 26.

[u/whatthedeuce1990 → u/miunaki]

This pattern moving forward seems dreaded, i can't imagine what happens when they're actually releasing the next meta mons

[u/miunaki → u/whatthedeuce1990]

Reminder that as the days go by the game is getting more and more scopely-fied. Can’t say we didn’t see this coming. It’s not surprising but still disappointing. And as expected before the sale became official, it’s about to get worse and more monetized essentially sucking the fun out it if it goes on the way the event was yesterday.

[u/miunaki → u/whatthedeuce1990]

Yup. I plan to be very selective with what I buy in the future. If it’s paying 28.90 in my currency for a meh looking mythical + comm day shinies that have already been released, I’ll pass. Realistically the money spend could go to coins on the web store for raid pass boxes which I can use for raids I prefer.

[u/tottubaswat → u/miunaki]

zam was 89 with no shiny either

[u/Araknot1]

I did 920 raids 37 shinys. Had a streak of ~180 Raids without a shiny. But others in my group got shinys in that time frame so it was turned on

[u/TheOzman21 → u/Araknot1]

920???? In 2 days?? Howww

[u/goshe7 → u/TheOzman21]

Money and accounts

[u/InsaneNutter → u/Araknot1]

180 Raids without a shiny is crazy if it was 1/20 odds. Your non shiny raid streak is more raids than our group managed in two days. My worst ever has been 1/85 for Zekrom.

[u/Araknot1 → u/Araknot1]

But the 920 raids was both days including remotes

[u/FSElmo435 → u/Araknot1]

920 raids?? Good lord

[u/SirHolyCow → u/FSElmo435]

Bro is single handedly funding this game

[u/rquinain → u/SirHolyCow]

I thought I was a whale until I saw some of my friends pull like 120 raids over 5 days during the global challenge.

920 raids in just 2 days is insane. Even at in-person GO Fests I max out at like, 200 raids for the entire time I'm there. I don't even think Brandon Tan grinds this much, at least not anymore.

You do you OP, but... damn lol

[u/JackBlacksWorld → u/rquinain]

lol I think I did less than 30 total and just got enough energy with the Remotes I'd got from coins + about 7-10 of each dog in person at our local meetup.

How you even get into triple digits is insane, especially in places where the heat is absolutely draining

[u/GodlFire → u/rquinain]

If they raided for 48 hours straight that would be:

48 hours * 60 mins / 920 raids = 3.13 mins per raid.

Would need like 5 phones to do that many raids since they surely didn't go 48 hours straight.

[u/rilesmcriles → u/Araknot1]

That ends up being a pretty normal rate

[u/rilesmcriles]

2/39 for zam

1/27 for Zac. Very normal rate for me.

A couple in my car had a funny RNG experience though. The husband got 6/39 and the wife got 0/39. That was hilarious to watch.

[u/IdiosyncraticBond → u/rilesmcriles]

That husband wil have mysteriously lost 3 shinies to husband wife before midnight, or he'll sleep in the shed for a week

[u/PokeManandWife]

0 for 66

[u/winternova99]

0 after 110 on 2 accounts

[u/IceRepresentative925]

I think the rates were lower than 1 in 20. Maybe 1 in 30 or even 1 in 50 who knows. Even with 1 in 50 rates some people might have seen 3 in a row that's how probabilities work. Since TSR largelty stopped doing any sort of research we can't really tell for sure.

For me the rates were pretty low as well. I got 4 shinies but 160+ raids done

[u/AlmightyGod420 → u/IceRepresentative925]

TSR is still active in research on discord.

[u/Disgruntled__Goat → u/AlmightyGod420]

Supposedly yeah, but we never hear anything about it

[u/AlmightyGod420 → u/Disgruntled__Goat]

Are you on their server?

[u/Pokefan317 → u/IceRepresentative925]

Our group went around 1 in 25 both days combined.  So I think it was 1 in 20

[u/0lPlainFace]

101 combined Zac/Zama raids 1 shiny Zacian. This felt similar to kyurem...

[u/Dr_Dunc]

2 for 10 (Me), 0 for 10 (Mrs Me) - she got a 100% Zamazenta on Saturday...

[u/shinomune]

Two days in Paris, 1 Zacian, 0 Zamacenta. 0 of both in Global Weekend.

The ratio was super low.

[u/Norbit_was_right → u/shinomune]

Same experience with me but I attended the Jersey City event. (1 zamazenta and 0 zacians)

[u/GimlionTheHunter]

0/30, nothing better than 15/15/11 I had previously, either

[u/oakengineer → u/GimlionTheHunter]

My IV rates were very low as well. Only had 1/41 above 90%

[u/Outrageous-Estimate9]

From my + groups experiance the Regis had insane high shiny rates (esp in early days) and by contrast the Zas had very low shiny rates

[u/FinalOne9655]

2/20 for zamazenta, 0/45 for zacian 😅

[u/Pandanoko-Fan137]

0/148.

[u/M0nsieurW0rldWide]

Guys people do this after every event. It’s Rng. Some events you get lucky, some you don’t. I got 5 shinties, & w hundos in about 55 raids. My buddy got 3 in 20.

[u/[deleted]]

I got 3 shiny zacians (27 caught) and 0 shiny Zamazenta (23). You're trying to rationalise bad luck, but it's just RNG.

[u/Qoppa_Guy]

I did maybe 20 Zamazenta raids and around 12 Zacian raids all told. Got 3 Zama and 2 Zacian as shiny.

I had far worse luck with catching shiny in the overworld, and most of them were Unown.

[u/ExtraThiccPam]

All I got was 1 shiny for each pup with horrible ivs

I raided each one ten times

[u/Autographz]

Zacian definitely seemed lower for most people I played with, except for a handful who got multiple in a row somehow lol

[u/Chalupaca_Bruh]

I feel incredibly lucky to have gotten one during the 13 or so raids I did. Yeesh. 

No Zamazenta but that’s fine. Not a big fan of the pink. 

[u/Roby9112]

I usually don't waste time in raids, especially for this reasons... me and my friends played the most on shiny check. And last week end (Unown were finally boosted) it was a really good Go Fest with the minimun T5 raid amount, just to transform the dogs

[u/Fusionxtreme]

From what I can tell it seemed pretty normal but I get it feels sus when you go through the long dry spells. Locally, there were some of us that struggled more on different days. For myself - I caught 33 Zamazenta with no shinies. However I did 47 Zacian raids and ended up with 4 shinies.

Interestingly, I sorted my Zacian by age and I can see that I obtained the shinies on raid 17, 36, 43 and 45. If I had stopped at 33 Zacian raids like I did with Zamazenta, I only would've received 1 shiny over 66 total five-star raids this weekend. Those 14 additional Zacian raids bumped my odds up to 1 in 20. I recognize I was very lucky, since I know others did more and were not as fortunate. This is unfortunately just the nature of RNG.

Honestly, what frustrates me more than shiny rates these days are all of the additional layers of RNG - shiny, IVs, special backgrounds, and (for things like Origin Dialga/Palkia) event-only moves you cannot TM. I'm thankful Iron Head is just a regular charged move, so that's at least not a concern this time around. But overall, the system just feels like they're stacking RNG on top of RNG to the point where no matter how much you play (or how much $$ you spend), there is less of a chance of getting exactly what you want which I think makes the experience feel less satisfying to a lot of players and collectors.

Maybe I'm wrong with that take, but when I am out during these big events now I am noticing that people seem less excited for shinies if the other RNG boxes aren't ticked as well.

[u/PrincessKurumi]

Quite a number of people I knew didn’t get any shinies. Personally I got my first shiny at 19. Took me another 35 for my second one. Both without background.

Zamazenta took me less than 20 raids for 2 shinies.

[u/Kench33]

I did well on the shiny dogs. 3 zacian 4 zamazenta but only one has a background. I did 38 zacian raids and 32 zamazenta raids. No hundos though which I would have rather gotten

[u/Realistic_Wait]

I had 60 raids over the weekend woth both zamazenta and zacian on main profile, got 1 zacian shiny, second profile was about 10 rais all together, 1 zacian. My raid buddy did 50+ and no shiny on either, and he did like 5 on the second one with none. Although the 5 & 10 shouldnt really count it still makes up a total of 120 raids with 2 shinies in total, which at normal rate should have been at least 5-6

[u/OutsideArrival227]

I did 15 raids and got nothing

I know that this is baby numbers but I've done about 20 Groudon and kyogre raids each and I haven't got a single shiny.

[u/Mental_Warthog_6891]

Interesting thing I noticed is that some people had decent shiny Zamazenta odds OR decent Zacian raids. Haven’t seen a whole lot of people have good shiny odds for both (a few here and there). I personally had the opposite of you. 60+ zam raids 0 shiny. Less than 20 zacian raids, 4 shinies 2 w/ background. Have NO idea how the odds worked with this event but it’s annoying as now I have to try and trade for a shiny zamazenta w/ background.

[u/AintNoArtsyFartsy]

I got 3/36.

[u/Sangesland]

0/50 zacian :(

At events like these it should honestly be 1/10.

[u/emma_bemm]

My friend did 4 and 3 were shiny. I did 10 and no shiny. It’s all rng ✨

[u/JohnnySeiker]

1 in 80 raids 💀, at least it has a bg

[u/Pokemonhunter86]

60 raids on each, no zama shiny, and 1 zac shiny after 57. Plenty candy tho so that's something

[u/Conscious_Army_9134]

They def were not 1/20 hell no. They knew wed be grinding those free green passes and made it more like 1/40 1/50. Go fest nj i got a shiny every 8-10 raids. Day 1 i did 60 raids with no shiny.

[u/rilesmcriles → u/Conscious_Army_9134]

You’re just making things up. There is no evidence that they altered the shiny rate.

If they did, just based on the (very biased) results in the comments of this thread, it would not have been altered as drastically as you are suggesting.

[u/David_V12]

I did about 25 and I got 3 shiny BG zacians.

[u/Foutjeh → u/David_V12]

Okay you just stole ours.

I'll send trainer code in DM's so you can return them asap...

[u/David_V12 → u/Foutjeh]

Haha I’d gladly give you one

[u/Psychological_Cup_95]

Got 8 from 60 raids yesterday . In Paris i got my first shiny after 79 raids ..

[u/Impliedlex110]

For the weekend I saw 5/340 (zacian and zama added together) shiny

[u/_aniBUTCHER]

I will share my experience,

Zamazenta - got 1st shiny after 100+ raids, got none for next 50, got 5 in next 12 or so raids, 3 back to back aswell

Zacian - no shiny in first 70 raids, 6 Shinies in next 80.

If I had stopped mid-way on both days, my shiny luck would have been abysmal, but with enough raids it balanced out.

RNG can be extremely cruel sometimes.

[u/Brief-Jury6224]

Haha, love how you framed the question. Turns out my pockets were deep enough to do 64 raids, as I got my first shiny at my 64th attempt 🥲

For sanity reasons I have determined the final score was me: 1 - Niantic: 0

[u/Objective-Ad3821]

It's just luck.

I went 2/72 on zamazenta. Then 8/96 on zacian

Unlucky on zamazenta and lucky on zacian for me. It's all luck no conspiracy.

[u/Forward-Row-32]

Shiny rates seemed normal. Raid days when it’s 1/10 got ppl thinking all events should be like a raid day. Catch rates were crazy good though. Haven’t seen a single 20 excellent curve w/golden razz for it to run away. Post which is nice 😊

[u/MV7300]

It is just rng, I did 40 and 0 shiny, but last time it was in raids I did 2 and got 1 shiny

[u/Rizonknight]

Did 50 raids, i got 1, wife did 50 raids and got 5...

[u/O_OA_A]

I think more players should report this issue. I have raised it to chat support for the low shiny rate (including raid and wild pokemon) but I got the answer that shiny is rare 🤷

We all paid for the ticket with “shiny boost”. This was not the right thing we could see.

[u/TechnicolorRabbit → u/O_OA_A]

I bought the ticket for the extra daily passes. I got 1 shiny Zamazenta and zero Zacian doing around 40 raids for each.

While I got it for the extra passes, the “shiny boost” included in this pass made me feel extra frustrated. It wasn’t like I found lots of shinies in the wild either.

I feel like there shouldn’t be any claims of “more/higher” shiny Pokemon on a paid ticket sold as a feature. It just leads to disappointment for those not blessed by RNGesus.

[u/multipocalypse → u/TechnicolorRabbit]

I agree but am commenting because RNGesus is so delightful

[u/neonmarkov]

Can we just ban these odds posts? They're always just people complaining that they got unlucky and trying to fool themselves into thinking there's something sinister about it

[u/Happy33333]

im in Europe as well and the shiny only picked up towards the end of the day.
Not saying they had the switch off or anything but after all its Niantic so who knows?

[u/Wiintendo]

3 Shinys in 23 Raids, guess I'm lucky, but I would have preferred a hundo

[u/InsaneNutter]

0/42 Zacian for myself and two friends raiding together in person. Two other friends with us got 1/42. One person in our group went 0/82 in total over both days. Some people did get a Zacian shiny with a lesser number of raids, I have no data on their raids though.

[u/DescriptionOk7664]

Did 24 zacian raids and got 2 shinies

[u/RPadTV]

more data points: 0/26 on Zacian, 0/15 on Zamazenta

[u/Super_leggeraz]

I did nearly 30 Zamazenta raids trying to get shiny before giving up and just hoping day 2 would bring me shiny Zacian. Turns out I get Shiny Zacian on about raid 7-8 so think Yay only need to raid out till I have my 1000 energy for the transformation.... What do you know I get a second shiny Zacian on my final raid to reach the 1000 energy mark and not only that it had the special background. Moral of the story is you just never know what's going to happen and it's just human nature to believe the odds are against you ( that's how I felt the first night after zero shiny zamazenta)

[u/FasterThanSloth]

30 raids - no shiny.

[u/Sylly3]

I got 1 shiny Zacian in 20 raids. Gf got 0 in 11, other person also 0 in 11. That is 1 shiny in 40+ checks.

Zamazenta we both got 1 shiny in about 15 raids

[u/Aluthiago]

I've seen people get many shinies with just a few raids and other players get none from >100 raids, so probably the same as always... RNG and very low samples to actually prove something (I mean, it's really hard to prove this anyway). They could've lowered the shiny rate? Yes. They did? Most likely not.

[u/browncoat0]

I got 4 shiny out of 50 on zamazenta but just 1 out of 71 on zacian

[u/rockman054]

I did 17 raids and got 1 shiny but only one 3 Star all other were 2Star

[u/Suicidal-Lysosome]

My partner and I did 50 Zacian raids together. 4 of mine were shiny, 0 of hers were.

On the flipside, we did 35 Zamazenta, and I got 0 shinies while she got 4

I chalked it up to weird luck 🤷‍♂️

[u/GazlarrGoesHuge]

3 in 75, no backgrounds

[u/N3ON444]

Got only 1 out of 60 raids. Really bad luck I guess

[u/Pokefan317]

We had more shinys for zacian then for zamazenta the day before. It is all rng 

[u/dulo]

For Zamazenta I got none out of 37 raids where 8 were remotes. Felt pretty bad that I even tried the extra remotes to get it. Then for Zacian I got 3/27... The odds evened out, but it felt pretty bad hunting the shiny

[u/enicchi]

4 shiny out of about 25 raids for both across both days (1 Zam, 3 Zacs).

[u/danielnunchuck]

I went 1/130

[u/TEFAlpha9]

I got two background shinies and 2 normal from 20 raids. I can't remember how many raids I did actually but I had 40 passes and still have 8 and did some Pikachu and fallinks with those.

[u/Techanthrope]

2/2 shiny zacians from raids, 0/5-6? Zazamenta

[u/Rubychan228]

Opposite for me. No Zamazenta, though for IRL reasons I could only do seven.

My second Zacian was a shiny with a background....

[u/hiimverysmart21]

My friend and I did around 70 Zacian raids between the both of us and we got one shiny each. One guy we ran into did get 3 shinies in a row though

[u/Fearless-Night8553]

2 shiny in 20 raids, both days, just luck

[u/V6SRS]

I got a Shiny Zac on my 3rd raid. Saturday, I got a Shiny Zam on my 6th raid.

Stopped once I got the shiny.

[u/Amarsis]

I did 30 raids for both zama and zacian. While I catched 4 shiny zama, i got no shiny zacian. And i got annoyed after 16th one and i counted it all to my boyfriend… raged a bit 😂

[u/Shuurai]

I don't know if I just have consistently bad luck during these big events but in the 16 months i've been playing i've played 4 of then (Go Fest x2, Wild Area & Unova) and each time my shiny rate has been much worse than the 1/20 it's supposed to be. For Toxtricity last year I did 80+ raids and only got 1. Kyurem I got 1 in 45. This event I got 0 in 49.

Events have been a constant source of frustration for me with raid shinies.

[u/Routine_Size69]

5 shinies across 58 raids for the 2 days. 3 across 30 Zacian yesterday.

My odds on other 5 star raids have been pathetically bad. Yesterday I outperformed. That's how odds work. You don't do 20 and get 1. You don’t do 60 and get 3. Sometimes you do 100 and you get 10. Other times you might get 0.

[u/THEGoDLiKeMIKE]

Everyone at my ambassador event noticed it. The shiny luck was absolutely lower on day 2 for both raids and wilds idc what they say theres just way too much evidence. Won't be surprised one bit when we see "oops sorry guys we forgot to turn the odds on here is your makeup event"

[u/ckck92]

Weirdly got my shiny on the 10th and last raid for the energy. Had a few lousy IVs with background but the good ones are all without special background

[u/real_Hank_Scorpio]

9 raids, 3 shiny in a row, best was 14-15-14 shiny with bg, 2 non shiny with bg. Would have done more but didn't have any remote passes left after 9

[u/SuicidalMagpie]

For me, 71 raids and 1 shiny, which is terrible, I never had such bad luck. My friends, one did close to 30 raids, no shiny, another friend did around 20 and got a shiny background.

[u/The_Montie]

Got both Zacian and Zamazenta shinies around raid 45ish... Suffered for both. 🙃

[u/whatthedeuce1990]

Did 30 raids, my only shiny is an xxs shiny with background. Similar case with zamazenta the previous day, 1 background regular shiny. Observed few players who went far the rabbit hole without anything.

[u/misty_lax]

Got 5 shiny out of 77 raids. My friend Im playing with didnt get any single shiny Zacian or Zamazenta.

[u/WizardFumblemore]

Chipping in that I went 2/45, which is only slightly less than expected for 1/20. Unfortunate but it is what it is.

[u/WearNothingButASmile]

counter check brag posts about getting a lot of shinies.

[u/goshe7]

0-23 Zam, 1-19 Zac.  

Seemed normal to me.  I regularly go 0-20+ raids.  Going 0-60+ has happened a handful of times.   Going 0-100+ has happened more than once.  

[u/supirman]

3/60 Shiny Zacian

0/34 Shiny Zamazenta

[u/chronoxiong]

11 Zamazenta raids = 0 shinies

22 Zacian raids = 0 shinies.

I bought the ticket too. Awful.

[u/zSaintX]

Did around 60 raids for both dogs and got just one of them. People around me were getting similar results (except a couple odd cases where they were getting 2 or even 3 shinies).

[u/Mulhalo]

I did 1 Zacian raid and it was shiny.

[u/BichenSubian]

34 sat raids, last one shiny

35 sunday raids, last one was shiny

With a ticket

[u/DeeperMadness]

I also saw just one shiny Zamazenta and no shiny Zacian in the 58 raids I did over the weekend. The background was really common, but it isn't the background that I wanted. Almost everybody I spoke to at the Hyde Park meetups had similar experiences with very low shiny rates in raids, with a few saying they caught more shiny wild Pokémon, even though they weren't focusing on it.

[u/g4lena]

I did 141 with 9 shinies, one hundo. Two shinies with backgrounds

it took me 157 raids to get a shiny kyogre before i think it’s just how RNG is

[u/Evening-Field-2244]

Got shiny with bg from second raid out of 10 total, so I think the shiny odds were boosted

[u/Glad-Menu-2625]

Zacian 28 raids 4 shiny Zamazenta 36 raids 3 shiny (1 of these was my first ever shundo!!!!!

[u/Tug2TheBoatGoat]

I went 9 for 95 and my wife went 4 for like 50ish.

[u/autonomy_girl]

1/9 for me. Did the bare minimum from the "free" raid passes for ticket holders.

[u/Celestetc]

My first raid I got a shiny.

[u/achleus]

Weirdly I only got shinies through remote raids. Easily did 50 in person and nothing.

[u/Storvox]

I did 25 Zamazenta raids and got 4 shinies. Did 32 Zacian raids and got 0 shinies.

I know my sample size is small but I also got maybe 1 Zacian above 90%? Feels like day 2 really had something funky going on.

[u/Antares-Black]

Took me 65 in-person raids to get my first shiny

[u/intkhabahmed]

I had the same situation for Zamazenta. I did 23 and didn't get any shiny. For Zacian I did 25 and got 4 shinies

[u/neueziel1]

0/40 combined. Guess I won’t buy the next premium battle pass since I have nothing to trade.

[u/TevecQ]

I got 1 in 23, was my 2nd raid. All I got was trash except....for the very first raid which gave me a Hundo with background!

[u/Hot-Narwhal-4390]

Always the same discussion after a GoFest, its just bad luck

[u/Dyno98]

I got two shiny Zamazenta in 11 raids but no Zacian in 11 too. I know it's not a great sample, but it I wanted to give my perspective

[u/Qumphie]

A little over 100 between myself and my girlfriend. 2 shiny Zacian. We had an infinitely easier time getting each us a shiny zamazenta slightly below odds each

[u/hiddenjumprope]

Wow, I somehow got 4 shinies out of 29 raids. I felt the backgrounds were rarer for me as I also only got 4 out of the 29 (none of them the shinies), while for Zamazenta I got 6 backgrounds out of 11 raids (no shinies).

[u/callthebig1bitey]

We found Zamazenta worse for shinies.

[u/Tomato_Buffalo]

I was doing lots of Remote Raids after the event ended for me in Germany, and I went 82 Raids without a shiny, which found odd. Stopped then however but it did feel a little fishy for sure as for the entirety of the event I was well within odds for raid shinies

[u/Federal_Command_9094]

60-90 raids across both days with no shine, a friend done around 400 raids on Sunday and only got 2 shinys and 1 from around 100 on sat.

My theory is they want us to want something so bad that we’re willing to give up or life savings

[u/IllustriousDay3241]

I did 30 Zacian with no Shiny and 25 Zamazenta with 2 shinies🫠

[u/Bacteriophag]

My stats were:

Zacian - 1/26

Zamazenta - 2/28

I felt bad doing this many raids, but now I feel lucky after checking this thread.

[u/Ok-Set8022]

3 shinies, 51 raids here

[u/frndlynghbrhdgay]

did like 50% more zac raids than zama, ended up with less shinies/bg shinies.

[u/ABoutDeSouffle]

9 raids, one shiny.

[u/Visina]

I got my first shiny on 64th raid, my wife got 8 shiny zacians and did 52 raids.

[u/Fumanachoo]

1 Shiny out of 6 Zacian raids and 0 out of 9 Zamazenta raids this weekend.

[u/HermyWormy69]

My group was getting a ton of shinies both days. Sorry it didn't go well for you.

But we did struggle with wild encounter shinies. It felt like those were barely boosted for us.

I wonder what the actual stats were for the weekend.

[u/Mustaaaa]

Got my first shiny after 56 raids and got then suddenly 2 more at my 60. and 61. raid (Zacian).

Zama was easier to get a shiny

Both where bad with IV's

[u/Joeshwa9240]

I was 1 in 17

[u/F3nRa3L]

85 zama with 6 shinies. 60 zacians with 3 shinies. So rate is about right

[u/A_Resting_Parrot]

0/38 (both dogs)

[u/Machineraptor]

Eh, with my 50 raids for both zam and zac with no shiny I see it could be way worse 🙃 I usually don't care about shiny legendaries, as I don't have dedicated group, and usually remote, but I really liked both shiny dogs so I'm quite sad about not getting them.

It's probably confirmation bias, but I also heard from folks that I was raiding with they were still hunting for that shiny after several dozens raids. It's definitely weird how many people were so unlucky.

[u/thrr4]

5 shinies in 46 encounters in our group here. A little below odds, but not extremely so.

person with a paid ticket: 2/11

unpaid: 0/11, 2/11, 1/11 and twice 0/1

[u/half-OP]

I had 0 shiny zacians in 65+ raids… did the same amount for Zamazenta and got 4 … something is off!

[u/kettlefromhell]

These shiny rates are pretty interesting to me. I usually have terrible luck (exactly one hundo legendary out of 803 caught/traded, including lucky trades!) but I got 2 shinies from 24 Zacian raids, including one 15/15/12, one 15/14/14, two 14/15/15 and one 15/15/14. My brother did 4 raids and got a shiny on his first one. 

If people are doing 50-100+ without a single shiny then something definitely seems fishy. For what it’s worth, these were almost all local raids in Singapore (+8 GMT). Ngl tho after doing over 40 Necrozma raids with highest only 15/15/12, a special background functional hundo Zacian does feel like a solid redemption :’)

[u/Kightsbridge]

We did 11 raids.. 3/5 accounts got a shiny. It seemed normal to us.

[u/Reevoo12]

20 Zacian, 4 shiny for me. My son did I think 11 and got 2 shiny. My wife also completed 11 and got 0 shiny

Zamazenta I think we all did like 13-15 and my son got our single shiny.

You really can't base rates on people who do a ton and have bad luck. They are the most likely to complain (and exaggerate).

[u/Tomo00]

Zamazentas 1/30 Zacians 1/58

Friend that did exactly same number of raids he got 0. However other friend got like 6 of them with ~10 raids less. I got 3 hundos, so overall I am happy with outcome. Other people that I didn't raid a lot with, got 1 or 0 shiny too.