r/TheSilphRoad • u/aznknight613 • Aug 10 '25
Discussion Japan's crowdsourced data seems to show no increased shiny rate for Origin Raid Day.
Seems like the shiny rate is still 1/20 rather than the usual 1/10 for raid days.
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u/Klecktacular USA • Mystic • 50 Aug 10 '25
No shiny boost, useful moves "if you're lucky", and at noon during a heat wave... Sounds like an easy pass for me
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u/Cainga Aug 10 '25
I could deal with the move being rare if you could ECTM at this point. It’s been out long enough.
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u/Oofpeople Africa Aug 10 '25
Same for me. I'd rather save some coins for Max Finale, cuz I don't want to get out at 46°C
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u/Dilpickle6194 Aug 10 '25
Niantic has established multiple times that they do not care about real-world circumstances when schedules in-game events. My example for this is not changing December 25th’s Raid Hour last year to literally any other day, because it was Christmas and I wasn’t gonna leave my family to play Pokémon in the freezing cold
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u/sbenfsonwFFiF Aug 10 '25
On the flip side, for many people it’s a day off where they can play instead of being at work on a typical Wednesday
Plus it’s not freezing cold everywhere
They can’t just accommodate each individual person or city
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u/mwithington Arizona, LV50, Instinct Aug 10 '25
I'll criticize Niantic as much as anyone, but this criticism is a bit ridiculous, tbh. Not everyone celebrates Christmas. Raid hours are Wednesdays and, if a Christmas falls on Wednesday, then a raid hour will be on Christmas.
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u/Neracca Maryland(MoCo) Aug 11 '25
Christians acting like everyone else celebrates that day be default because why wouldn't they, right?
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u/AvatarAarow1 Aug 10 '25
I managed to get a 15-14-15 with roar of time from a remote raid. I’m pretty happy with doing basically nothing else
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u/TheRickinger Aug 10 '25
Great, non guaranteed move and 1/20 odds.
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u/Monoskimouse USA - Pacific Aug 10 '25 edited Aug 10 '25
All this data lines up with ProPlantys stream and the discord we are in with him. We collectively went 7/200. (3.5%)
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u/idontlikeflamingos Aug 10 '25
Me and my cousin bought the event ticket and used up all free raid passes (+1 saved from yesterday).
0 shiny.
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u/Matcha3212 Aug 10 '25
Same here. I got 1 shiny from 34 raids, which was after i used up all the free passes
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u/ch33psh33p Aug 10 '25 edited Aug 10 '25
The sample size is now up to over 10,000 as most communities around here finish up and report.
The shiny rate was indeed left at 1/20.
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u/Misato-san7 Italy Aug 10 '25
I guess I can do free in person raids and be done. Time and Money saved. No move no shiny next step is no Pokémon? 🤣
What a sad way to handle an ultra unlock
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u/FunDisk3722 Aug 10 '25
Eternatus? :)
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u/Misato-san7 Italy Aug 10 '25
Aside from him xd I was thinking about today xddd
Eternatus is even less exciting than this raid day 🤣
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u/HermanManly Aug 10 '25
next step is no Pokémon?
You can already run out of Pokeballs 🙃
which should not be a thing
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u/TheBottomLine_Aus Aug 10 '25
0/60 for myself. 1/60 for my partner.
Our group of 20 people had roughly 5% rate. 1/20 seems like it was to me.
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u/sbenfsonwFFiF Aug 10 '25
What was the special move rate?
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u/TheBottomLine_Aus Aug 10 '25
37/39 Palkia caught
5 Spacial Rend
28/29 Dialga caught
7 Roar of time.
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u/encexXx Aug 10 '25
Interesting, i caught 3 Palkias, 2 were with SR, and 5 Dialgas, 0 were with RoT
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u/culingerai Australasia - Instinct - L50 - The 300/350 Club Aug 10 '25
One data point from me, 4 in 14 raids (2 trainers, 2 eqch)
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u/StorageImmediate4892 Aug 10 '25
I paid money for this event because of the increased shiny chance. Great Niantic, you got me again.
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u/Assassin_Ankur India, L50, Don't let the game play with you Aug 10 '25
Tbf, they do usually make good make-up events in these situations so I am expecting something again.
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u/sts_ssp Tokyo, Valor lv 50 Aug 10 '25
And the makeup of the makeup event because they'll forget to reactivate the bonuses for ticket holders.
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u/BiteSome9386 Aug 10 '25
Would a regular makeup event make sense in this case? People spent loads of raid passes with a false promise of increased shiny odds so a straight rerun expecting people to spend these passes again is unfair imo. Maybe research with how many shinies you missed out on similarly to when they messed up the backgrounds on remote raids?
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u/Assassin_Ankur India, L50, Don't let the game play with you Aug 10 '25 edited Aug 10 '25
Last year during Ultra Unlock Mega Lucario raid day, they messed up the ticket bonuses. So they gave another raid day the very next with the ticket bonuses to everyone.
Expecting something similar.
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u/Todilo Aug 10 '25
Don't worry you will get a voucher for 50 red balls
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u/Assassin_Ankur India, L50, Don't let the game play with you Aug 10 '25
Last year during Ultra Unlock Mega Lucario raid day, they messed up the ticket bonuses. So they gave another raid day the very next with the ticket bonuses to everyone.
The subreddit really becomes insufferable at times, you can't have any proper discussion without going "ooh Niantic bad and evil".
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u/Exaskryz Give us SwSh-Style Raiding Aug 10 '25
To be fair. The game is nearly 10 years old. It should not be this hard to quality assure. Make a checklist for every event and get that checklist done before the event.
- Set raid bosses to be Origin Form Palkia and Dialga at local time 11am
- Turn off lower tier raids?
- Set spawn intervals for 25 min on w/o egg, and 5 min dead time or whatever it's like (this is raid hour style)
- Set the shiny rate for the raid reward
It is understandable if people lose tolerance to the exact same mistake being repeated multiple times.
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u/Todilo Aug 10 '25
That was a really good summer with lots of extra and great compensations. Haven't been the same since imho
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u/pokebtt Aug 10 '25
Can someone expand on what they did for compensation on the mega lucario raid day please!
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u/ResponsibilityNo5716 Aug 10 '25
So I spent 100 raid passes and bought a event ticket being told I had boosted shiny odds and my compensation for being lied to is another event I have to spend more money on? Lets go. Now my money is wasted and the 3 shinies I did manage to get will be worthless now after the boosted makeup event
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u/GimlionTheHunter Aug 10 '25
When they messed up the ultra beasts, they sent out a research with an encounter for every raid you did that was affected. I’m expecting the same this time
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u/Kuliyayoi Aug 10 '25
Did they say it'd be 1 in 10 or did we assume?
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u/heliumfilleddrifloon Massiveangus | L50 | West EU Aug 10 '25
It is always 1/10 for raid days unless they changed something this time around. Legendary rate is 1/20 and 1/10 in raid days. Something is more than likely messed up(again).
If anything, it should be even better rate than 1/10 IMO & guaranteed moves. It is an ULTRA unlock after all. This is even worse than a normal raid day right now 🥲
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u/aznknight613 Aug 10 '25
Will laugh if the shiny rate was originally 1/40 and the increase is 1/20.
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u/hymensmasher99 Canada Aug 10 '25
Its normally 1/20 for legendaries, 1/10 on raid days
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u/Federal_Command_9094 Australasia Aug 10 '25
3rd time we’re had the origins and still no shiny, I’m beginning to think my account is cursed
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u/Syrcrys Aug 10 '25
Hope at least you learned your lesson and you’ll stop giving money to untrustworthy companies.
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u/Chanderule Aug 12 '25
Im sorry but why do we keep giving them money when we know damn well theyre gonna mess up again and again
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u/Its_Raining_JIV Aug 10 '25
I’m at 35 raids and only 1 adventure of each no shiny. I can’t even buy a shiny legendary at this point lol
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u/_Jab Aug 10 '25
do they reimburse raid passes if they admit the error? semi new to the game and first time seeing this happen
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u/Dry-Body-6652 Aug 10 '25
Sadly no. They MIGHT reveal they "forgot" to add the 1/10 shiny odds and either make a repeat day or give us a future make-up research for each raid you've done before they "fixed" the mistake. It happened with necrozma and the ultra beasts.
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u/solariiis Aug 10 '25
wouldn't mind a makeup research tbh. but knowing them itll be 3 months before any fix comes out and itll probably be a repeat day with no extra passes so they can squeeze even more money
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u/Temporal_Bellusaurus Aug 10 '25
They have in the past reimbursed (remote) raid passes in some instances, such as when Uxie/Mesprit/Azelf mistakenly had reduced shiny rates during remote raids. The end result was giving everyone 1 Remote Raid Pass per Remote Raid they did.
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u/LHodge Aug 10 '25
You know, I somehow feel like Niantic isn't going to drop 40 remote passes in a bunch of people's accounts. I'd expect something similar to the Kyurem/Reshiram/Zekrom Background Makeup Research that gave guaranteed encounters for each one you missed out on.
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u/Temporal_Bellusaurus Aug 10 '25
And that's fair that you don't feel like they're gonna do that. I am not advocating for or against it, I am merely stating that there was in fact a situation where they did do exactly that. Yes, the likely outcome is probably that they'll make a make-up research with one guaranteed shiny per 10 raids you did (rounded up).
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u/adiputinica Aug 10 '25
They should give a research for each of the two pokemon each being shiny and with the move guaranteed. Then I will be happy. But ofc they won't do it
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u/CardInternational512 Aug 10 '25
Seems about right. I did 25-30 raids today in a few hours and didn't see a single shiny lol. About half of them had the adventure effect however.
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u/Ok-Report-697 Aug 10 '25
That is insane rng tbh, I did 40 dirty raids, 2 adventure affects, 2 shinies
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u/CardInternational512 Aug 10 '25
"Dirty raid" ? And nice! Yeah, I was pleased with all the adventure effects, but was hoping for a shiny palkia at least since I was missing the dex entry haha. Oh well
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u/BucketHeadJr Netherlands Aug 10 '25
I just did 25 raids and got two shinies but only four with the Adventure Effect :(
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u/SirCabbage Australasia Aug 10 '25
Can confirm from Australia, we had the same experience. Barely any shinies all day, we had a group of 20 so you'd expect with 1 in 10 to get one or two people getting it each raid, but nope. No where close. Here's hoping they do a makeup for this
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u/RiologyWatches Aug 10 '25
Awaiting our 50 pokeballs compensation 🥰
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u/Weird-Ball-2342 Aug 10 '25
Do you want niantic to max our accounts????? Its probably a nanab berry and a pokeball
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u/shadraig Western Europe Aug 10 '25
Yes we will do our free raids and maybe 1-2 green and then head home.
People are likely to not show up for a redo-date, so it's always a situation where WE do lose time and money, and Niantic is filling their pockets to get the money they need to get
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u/AN0NIM07 MYSTIC | 50 Aug 10 '25
If there's no crowdsourced data, they could easily ignore all this by saying "RNG, RNG"
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u/redditor_no_10_9 Aug 10 '25
Or worse. "Inflation" to justify worse odds in order to make more money
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u/DreadfuryDK New Jersey - Instinct LVL 39 Aug 10 '25 edited Aug 10 '25
What a wonderful event. Incorrect shiny odds and the move you actually want these two to have isn't even guaranteed in the first place (at least that part's intended so it's just bad design instead of bad implementation).
"Ultra" Unlock btw.
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u/East-Unit-3257 Aug 10 '25
Seems like that's the case, I've been catching P's and D's nonstop since 2 PM and hav yet to catch even one shiny
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u/dl899 Aug 10 '25
Ultra ‘Unlocks’ are now just watered-down events compared to when Kanto regionals were actually ‘unlocked’ back in the day.
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u/ErikSpanam Aug 10 '25
I liked the 4x stardust and Audinos, ngl!
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u/MSchmidt5073 Aug 10 '25
I’m a big fan of the 4x rewards too! Plus, the rare XL candy drops for this event are being completely ignored. Overhated events
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u/SilentKiller2809 South East Asia Aug 10 '25
As if raiding in its current state could get any worse...
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u/PikaGaijin KANTO-M48 Aug 10 '25
If they would be transparent, and publish the odds of everything, then it would be an automatic double-check on their process.
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u/error_exe Australia Aug 10 '25
45ish raids and got 2 shinies. Was convinced the odds were correct at the start since I got 1 shiny of each in about 15 raids but my last 30 raids yielded nothing
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u/Maleficent_Gur_8726 Aug 10 '25
I suspected this was the case. did 17 raids in a group of 4, 0/68 shiny, 11/68 special move
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u/ebonus Aug 10 '25
0/26 raids currently for me. Also lost 2 passes to the glitch that kicks you out when all your Pokémon faint. Woooo….
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u/KyuremIsKeel Aug 10 '25 edited Aug 10 '25
Did 26 remote raids, got a singular shiny. Let's see how many i'll get when the event starts where i'm at. I hope it's fixed in time...
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u/Winterwolf-W Aug 10 '25
I have 17 Dialgas and out of those
-1 was shiny
-3know RoT
I also caught 16 Palkias
-0 are shiny
-2 Know SR
This is probably the most ridiculous event after coming back from a break
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u/EzekielKallistos Aug 10 '25
I remembered why I took a break in the first place….now I’m thinking…. Why bother
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u/DimensionPurple Aug 10 '25
as of right now in maryland. there is a group and so far is 1 out of 23 raids done. Not many people getting shinies and its 3pm and the boost still isn't on.
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u/Witcher_IN Aug 10 '25
Makeup event incoming?
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u/CyberPrime_ USA - Pacific Aug 10 '25
I’m doubtful, I lost trust with the game with the unova pass SAYING that it had a pose but didn’t, then we got compensation in the form of not the pose we were promised, but a few garbage items. It’s a shame.
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u/ErikSpanam Aug 10 '25
That was bad, either that or Deino shiny release were the worst I think.
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u/SBM1992 Aug 10 '25
What happened for deino’s shiny?
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u/ErikSpanam Aug 13 '25
The shiny rate was incredibly bad at first, then reports said it became 0, then it became very bad again.
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u/fantasypaladin QLD Aug 10 '25
Our raid group in Australia of about 50 people were averaging way less than 1/10
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u/xUmcyk Aug 10 '25
Sorry to butt in, but could someone please confirm if raids are from 11am to 5pm or from 2pm to 5pm?
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u/JoeHongKong Aug 10 '25
I’ve done 45 raid with only one shiny, of course I see this after I spent half a years worth of saved up passes as a free to play player.
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u/CloudvAsm L50 - Mystic Aug 10 '25 edited Aug 10 '25
Will add to this, did 40 raids of Dialga, 9 had RoT, 1 shiny only, no adventure effect. Only positive was with the ticket and lucky egg I came out 2.4 million xp ahead but still… was very lackluster as a whole as I was hoping for more shinies.
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u/redditor_no_10_9 Aug 10 '25
I wonder how Corporate test their release. One person ask another person whether they tested it but still release regardless what answer they get?
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u/new2lombard Aug 10 '25
After an awful hatch day yesterday (0-15) I’m glad to skip this and stay in the AC.
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u/Adventurous-Effort87 Aug 10 '25
40 raids and 0 shinies, was about to complain here then I saw this post! Lets see how they fix this one now...
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u/Animefanatic781 Aug 10 '25
0/20 for me, and 4 with special Rend. 2 of them have 15 attack. It really should be guaranteed at this point. The other pokemon with adventure effects are guaranteed because they are form change/fusions.
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u/TheKingofHearts26 Long Island, New York Aug 10 '25
How is the Dialga duo?
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u/TheRealHankWolfman UK & Ireland - Yorkshire - Mystic - L50 Aug 10 '25
Both of them are fairly easy to duo with the right counters.
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u/Manjenkins Aug 10 '25
I got lucky and got a shiny Palkia 2nd try but haven’t got his adventure move yet and I’ve done 5 so far
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u/BernieAndCreamGO Aug 10 '25 edited Aug 10 '25
53 raids (2 ran) and only 1 shiny. My partner did 53 as well and got 3 shinies
So 3 shinies between 106 raids. Worst raid day shiny rates ever.
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u/Traditional_North873 Aug 10 '25
I am not very happy about this event, hatch day yesterday great, increased hours today great but as I played the event became underwhelming, after 2h I got only 2shiny and special moves in other 2 with horrible ivs, got bored and called it for the day. Big disappointment about this event, they should really care about what they promised for
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u/Sea-Body-7395 Aug 10 '25
Brute forced 34 Dialga Raids - 47 Palkia Raids
3 Shiny Dialgas - 6 Adventure Moves
1 Shiny Palkia - 22 Adventure Moves
I almost fell to my knees on the tram when I finally hit the Palkia. Now I feel so much more justified.
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u/JealousStatement5232 Aug 10 '25
Does Niantic do nothing when it turns out raid days did not have the shiny boost that was promised?
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u/YourEskimoBrother69 USA - Midwest CST lvl 40 Aug 10 '25
Curious what the crowd sourced rate of the special moves are
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u/reverend-smith Aug 10 '25
Kept getting kicked out of remote raids. Not even gonna bother till the inevitable makeup day.
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u/jgrizzy89 VA-Mystic-50 Aug 10 '25
Did 38. 15 adventure effect moves (7 Dialga, 8 Palkia). 4 shiny (2 Non RoT Dialga, 1 RoT Dialga, 1 SpaR Palkia).
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u/Zanfish_yt USA - South Aug 10 '25 edited Aug 10 '25
Out of about 45-50 raids I got 7 shiny. 4 palkia and 3 Dialga, which is way more than I usually get.
One of the shiny palkia had spacial rend and one dialga had roar of time.
(Proof)
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u/Apprehensive-Pop9321 Aug 12 '25
There are probably people that did like 2 raids and got a shiny that are thinking "idk what the problem is the shiny rates seemed good to me"
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u/jakenguyens Aug 10 '25
45 raids done, move seems like 1/4 or 1/5. got 2 shinies both without move
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u/jakenguyens Aug 10 '25
Will also say, i was 1/10 for ROT dialga and a friend of mine did 20 dialgas without a ROT, wondering if ROT has a lower chance than SR for some reason?
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u/LHodge Aug 10 '25
This was my experience, about 50% of my Palkia had Spacial Rend, but only about 25% of my Dialga had Roar of Time.
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u/abadd0n Aug 10 '25
I really hope things improve, especially communication, once Scopely settles in
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u/FPG_Matthew Aug 10 '25
“Ultra unlock” btw