r/VoteDEM • u/bbeck2754 Washington, D.C. • 4d ago

Sabato Crystal Ball GOV Rating Changes: IA (Likely to Lean R), VA (Lean to Likely D), ME (Likely to Lean D)

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-2025-2026-gubernatorial-races-rating-changes-in-virginia-iowa-and-maine/
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43

u/elykl12 CT-02 4d ago

Why did Maine go Likely D to lean D? Is there a strong Republican running for governor?

19

u/GeologicalOpera Progressively Blue 4d ago edited 4d ago

The article puts the shift as based on these factors: a presently crowded Democratic primary field, the Democratic Party pursuing a third straight term as the party in office, a possibly strong GOP nominee (Jonathan Bush, nephew of HW), and a third party Independent who is a former Republican state senator.

Edit: I neglected to mention that they've adjusted their prediction specifically because they don't know as of yet how that Independent candidate will affect the race. He's tacking toward the center, but without a clear Democratic or Republican nominee they aren't sure how he'll siphon.

16

u/JPBooBoo 4d ago

Jeez, all this time I thought Ramaswamy was a carpetbagger. He really is from Ohio!

25

u/da2Pakaveli 4d ago edited 4d ago

Winning Iowa would be quite something

25

u/TraditionalProduct15 4d ago

Don't sleep on Rob Sand. 

He might have an actual shot. 

7

u/King_Swift21 4d ago

Hope he wins