r/VoteDEM • u/bbeck2754 Washington, D.C. • 1d ago

New Jersey 2025 Governor’s Race: Sherrill Leads Ciattarelli By 10

https://quantusinsights.org/f/new-jersey-2025-governor%E2%80%99s-race-sherrill-leads-ciattarelli-by-10?mkt_tok=NTU2LVlFRS05NjkAAAGcyGOdHEntYdWwCogB_0mrKDpJ0bHKoDK_fzL-YZuo2Kzt1yX4z-7tf-SVBNRhtTU-87ugacW0yr7qYMJOgrTJKZO0-UyTOuJ3sXkUccSXZeLL7w
333 Upvotes

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61

u/bbeck2754 Washington, D.C. 1d ago

Number from the Quantus Insights poll:

Sherrill (D) - 49%, Ciattarelli (R) - 39%

63

u/jj1917 Blorgia 1d ago

Not to be contrary or anything, but 10% in NJ right now is a GREAT result. Anyone saying it's

closer than it should be must not remember the 2021 NJ elections, Murphy only won by 3.2%.

Yes, NJ is a heavily D state but more like Minnesota in that respect. D's win reliably, but not by a huge margin. The sort of people who "turned" to the GOP over the past 8 years are pretty heavily represented in NJ's population, so it makes sense.

A reversion back towards more normal trends for NJ would be a great sign, along with similar results in VA's statewide elections.

As an aside, NJ has plenty of more rural areas (you might think it's all just NYC suburbs!) that are quite republican, and then there is Atlantic City which definitely is pro-GOP as well.

31

u/ThotPoliceAcademy 1d ago

Yeah, I’m not sure why anyone is saying this isn’t a good poll.

Worth noting that Quantus in a GOP-friendly/leaning pollster. Their write up of this poll even sounds like it’s a Ciattarelli campaign memo.

Even Murphy’s first win was by 15. New Jersey isn’t California or Vermont, they can be purple at the state legislative level.

8

u/Due-Rent-6527 20h ago

If a poll like this came out in 2024 this late to the election cycle on either side, media pundits would proclaim this race over already and a win for whoever had that lead. This tracks with the behavior of both campaigns, as I have seen only two YouTube ads for both candidates throughout this cycle and virtually nothing else.

4

u/BamBamPow2 19h ago

James carville said if it ends at low / mid single digits it's almost a Pro Trump result. Need a blowout to scare Republicans around the country.

1

u/Meanteenbirder New York 16h ago

But, Vermont IS purple at the state level…

Their elections are often MUCH closer than the federal ones, and one candidate even beat the incumbent LG last year.

25

u/goodbye_freetime 1d ago

Not to mention that NJ's Democratic tendencies don't usually extend to governors. Murphy was the first Democratic governor to win a second term since Brendan Byrne in 1977. The fact that Sherrill is up 10 points in a poll after 8 years of a Democrat is actually a really good result in NJ.

3

u/ProgressiveSnark2 10h ago

Just a reminder to folks that at this time in 2021, polls did show a wider margin for Murphy’s reelection than the actual result.

It’s still close enough that an upset could occur. Please do not sleep on this election.

23

u/duckduckduckgoose_69 1d ago

This is closer than it should be. Don’t sleep on this race everyone!

30

u/puroloco 1d ago

It's too fucking close. Do people in NJ want to deal with governor Trump?

18

u/AdmiralSaturyn 1d ago

They're likely the same people who voted for Chris Christie.

11

u/steffie-punk 1d ago

It’s still close but this is an increase, it was +8 during June

11

u/TonyG_from_NYC 1d ago

Polls mean nothing.

GO OUT AND VOTE!!!!

6

u/Careless-Roll5310 22h ago

COME ON!!!! WE need all the Dem Governors we can get.

6

u/drtywater 18h ago

With NJ Dems will win. Focus though on some of the more Republican parts in particular Monmouth and Ocean county. Those are heavily suburban counties that also have had more traditional Republican bases. If those have big Dem swings vs 2021 that is hat I'm watching. I'd also look at Bergen county to see how much it changes.

3

u/wheezy_runner 18h ago

Volunteer with Field Team 6 and get more New Jerseyans registered Blue!

1

u/ginaedits 4h ago

My time is so limited but really want to help. Do postcards have any real effect? I can write those while on work calls, but I can’t get out to canvass 🫤

2

u/NeatlyCritical 1d ago

Not enough need to make sure if you live there to be going door to door, registering and make sure get 99% or higher turnout. No one stays home.