r/accelerate • u/dental_danylle • 4d ago
Discussion What everyday technology do you think will disappear completely within the next 20 years?
Tech shifts often feel gradual, but then suddenly something just vanishes. Fax machines, landlines, VHS tapes — all were normal and then gone.
Looking ahead 20 years, what’s around us now that you think will completely disappear? Cars as we know them? Physical cash? Plastic credit cards? Traditional universities?
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u/rileyoneill 3d ago
Small internal combustion engines, especially anything smaller than a car. In 2045 it would be really out of place to see a gasoline powered car on the road and if so, its someone's classic car they take out a few times per month. 99% of gas cars that exist today will be taken off the road the 1% that remain will be some sort of collector's item used more for recreation than actual transportation. But things like gas powered lawn mowers, hand tools, generators, scooters, bikes, will all be extremely rare. There will definitely be cases of people finding them in garages, the same with cars.
Home appliances that use gas will largely be phased out but might still exist in some climates known for extremely cold weather. You might see gas powered BBQs though. But for homes, HVAC, hot water heater, clothes dryers, and anything else will be electric (mostly heat pumps). Some people might have propane for outside stuff or in places that experience extreme cold for prolonged periods of time.
As much as some people think computers will communicate directly with your brain, I still think physical computers will exist as a consumer product for people who prefer that form factor. Likewise I think people will still carry around something that looks like a phone. I do see the 'telephone' part disappearing and the device instead just being an internet communications device (you will be able to still hold it up to your ear and use it like a phone). But a "Pocket device" - "Backpack device" and "Table top device" will still all exist for people who like using that.
Coal power will have completely disappeared. Natural gas plants will have mostly gone away but you might still see them in some placed used as standby units, likely in very cold climates.
We are in the early stages of the the RoboTaxi. It is small, but it is growing very quickly. My curve is that the number of weekly RoboTaxi rides in the US is increasing by a factor of 10 every 2 years. In 2024 the 100,000 rides per week mark was surpassed. If the curve holds, it will be 1,000,000 weekly rides hit in 2026, 10m weekly rides hit in 2028, 100m weekly rides hit in 2030. If the curve holds, the number of weekly rides in the mid 2030s will have displaced all the human driving. This will rapidly change society, and society will have to turn around and adapt to it.
The big adaptions to this are going to be construction, we are going to have to build lots and lots of depots, generation, but also reforming parking lots (which 90% will disappear). It will likely be a semi common thing for people who give up car ownership to remodel their garage into something that isn't used for cars. Drive thru restaurants will likely completely disappear. Ghost kitchens will largely replace them. A lot of new apartment buildings won't have parking spaces for residents but will have RoboTaxi loading systems. The cultural practice of kids turning 16 and getting their own car will die pretty quickly. Rural life will likely still involve driving but folks will have to leave the cars in the countryside when they go into cities. VTOL drones that carry people in rural areas will likely be a thing, but not everywhere and not everyone will be using them.
I actually see Universities mostly sticking around. They are currently treated as social institutions of prestige by a large portion of wealthy people and that won't change. I see a possibility of much of their parking lots and other blank space in campus being redeveloped into student housing.