r/baseball • u/intheyear3001 Chicago Cubs • Jul 12 '25
Analysis Cubs’ broadcast booth cites important MLB stat; “1.000 win pct when scoring more”
1.3k
u/RomeoBMcFlourish New York Yankees Jul 12 '25
I don’t really keep up with these new age stats.
366
61
u/wooly_bully Boston Red Sox • Seattle Mariners Jul 12 '25
Once you calculate xwBLOB+(-) it all makes sense
36
u/brbpizzatime Cincinnati Reds Jul 12 '25
Does that factor in the ballpark? Teams are going to have a higher xwBLOB+(-) in Coors
26
u/FreeBricks4Nazis Chicago Cubs Jul 12 '25
It does, but in the roundabout way that it evaluates every ballpark except the one being played in
2
3
3
1.2k
u/CumpanyPolicy Boston Red Sox Jul 12 '25
Boog is the biggest dork in baseball
381
u/fender-b-bender Chicago Cubs Jul 12 '25
Him and Jim Deshaies are perfect for each other, they play off each other so well
40
u/Wootstapler Jul 12 '25
I love JD. He's like the Martin Brundle for Cubs baseball (for me at least)
124
u/Patrick2701 Chicago Cubs Jul 12 '25
They are amazing, I miss them when they aren’t together
63
u/fender-b-bender Chicago Cubs Jul 12 '25
I miss Boog any game when that Alex guy takes over, dude is just not it. Sunday's suck when Boog has his ESPN duties.
32
u/Battle_Sheep Chicago Cubs Jul 12 '25
Alex Cohen sucks. He’s just an endless stream of banal baseball platitudes with little personality behind them.
26
u/sdpcommander Chicago Cubs Jul 13 '25
I can't believe there's people on our sub that prefer Cohen to Boog. Boog actually has chemistry with JD, Cohen is just generic baseball announcer #1523
19
u/jso__ Chicago Cubs Jul 13 '25
And beyond having no chemistry, his calls aren't particularly good either. I really hope they don't replace Boog with him. If Boog ever leaves they should go external to hire a replacement.
6
u/rikrok58 Chicago Cubs Jul 13 '25
There are people who STILL hate Boog. I defend him all the time on our subs.
25
Jul 13 '25
He's young and we have to compare him to Boog. I dont think he's THAT bad. There's a few teams that he would be just as good as their current pbp guy, but hopefully it won't ever be the Cubs.
2
u/GoombaTrooper Chicago Cubs Jul 13 '25
So true. It's like he's trying to record for MLB the Show during his broadcasts.
12
-35
u/CumpanyPolicy Boston Red Sox Jul 12 '25
JD is awesome, Boog spends so much of that game talking about anything but the game which I’m not a giant fan of.
28
→ More replies (4)-2
u/Backagainkv Chicago Cubs Jul 12 '25
My family/friends and I all don’t like boog. A lot of the time it turns into the boog podcast and he goes on random tangents. It’s a little too national for us.
2
u/CumpanyPolicy Boston Red Sox Jul 12 '25
Like when he gave us a grammar lesson on the past tense of bides today when they are playing a baseball game right in front of him lol
-6
u/Backagainkv Chicago Cubs Jul 12 '25
That happens so frequently, nothing worse then when the cubs are playing like shit and boog goes into that mode. Or when he’s cringe asf with Taylor.
→ More replies (1)1
24
u/DarthClitCommander Chicago Cubs Jul 13 '25
I didn't really care for Boog at first, but he has grown on me. Boog and Jim are really good together.
13
u/m4n715 Chicago Cubs Jul 13 '25
JD's just a great color man. He was, in my opinion, even better alongside Len Kasper. Boog is fine, but I miss Lenny on the broadcast.
→ More replies (3)6
7
u/1005thArmbar Seattle Mariners • Chicago Cubs Jul 12 '25
I watch through Amazon because I had gift cards that I used on mlb tv and I regret it so much because they don't carry the radio feeds. Instead of Pat and Ron, it's either Alex "ChatGPT Incarnate" Cohen sounding like a community theatre performer's impression of what a broadcaster should be or you get Jon "Redditor (pejorative)" Sciambi doing the world's shittiest open mic night
I remember when Joe Girardi would come into the Marquee booth on occasion a year or two ago and Sciambi baited him into some debate about what some late-game leverage situation, then told 2009 New York Yankees World Series Winning Manager Joe Girardi that he was wrong and should do the other thing because it said it worked like 54% of the time or whatever in a Fangraphs blog post
That's really his biggest flaw as a commentator. He's got that ESPN national broadcaster mindset of "I'm not here to call the game, I'm just holding court. I'm the funniest and smartest guy in the room, please give me attention". He's actually tolerable most of the time but it feels like at least once a game, he gets bored and just starts fucking around in the booth. I can't even make dinner during the game because I'm listening to Sciambi yell about how it's actually called an automatic double and not a ground-rule double or doing some extended bit about shoes while barely calling the game
13
u/Warm_Feed8179 Chicago Cubs Jul 12 '25
He kinda grows on ya/wears ya down. I hated him at first (Call the f-ing game dude!) and then second (stawp saying P-whizzy!) and now he's just kinda wore me down like a brother-in-law at a terrible family function. Is he the best? But he's certainly not the worst. I really like JD and Boog is just kinda a dork. It's better than the yelling super excited guy or Alex Cohen.
1
u/1005thArmbar Seattle Mariners • Chicago Cubs Jul 13 '25
Yelling super excited guy is another of my least favorite types of broadcaster. At least with the attention whore broadcasters, I get it. Not a lot of friends growing up, finally get a chance to be heard by a worldwide audience, etc I don't care for it, but intellectually, I understand it
Overly hyped-up guy is way worse. Every sport has at least one of them, the type of broadcaster who treats a walk with the bases empty like a World Series-winning walk-off grand slam or a running back going up the middle for a gain of 2 like a 99-yard TD run. Like I understand wanting to bring emotion into it but how have you been a broadcaster this long without an army of producers saying "hey uh pal it's the bottom of the 1st, maybe take it down a notch or two"?
2
2
u/Warm_Feed8179 Chicago Cubs Jul 13 '25
Yes, I am a fan of less is more. Fill out the story, build the tension when needed but when it comes to the climax, just let it breathe. Let the crowd and natural energy do the lifting. I think of Vin Scully, who would just add the right words, just perfect.
The Cubs had Len & JD and they were really good. Len and Bob where good too. Bob got a little stodgy at times but were solid. Harry and Steve were a good match. Harry was a bit much, but he earned it. Tom Brenneman felt like a Howard Cosell wannabe. Just terrible. Fitting he went to the Cards.
The one thing that still irks me about Boog is that he'll just blather about shoes or need to finish his little bit even if the moment is more important and frankly it's almost always more important. Have fun when it's a blowout - you'll have plenty of opportunities. Call a good game, less is more. When it doubt call it straight - it aint about you buddy.
250
u/Brave-Television-884 Toronto Blue Jays Jul 12 '25
Win pct is just an old school stat. Meaningless today.
67
u/IONTOP Arizona Diamondbacks Jul 12 '25
Yeah, it's all about the ratio of wins vs losses over a 162 game season, not this fucking "wins above losses" shit they're trying to push onto us...
15
u/_HGCenty Seattle Mariners Jul 12 '25
As a Mariners 01 connoisseur, this hits too close to home. It's postseason win total and WS win pct that matters.
17
u/2948337 Seattle Mariners Jul 12 '25
Seattle never lost a WS game, so that means they're the best team ever.
7
u/yourmomchallenge Seattle Mariners Jul 13 '25
i mean so have the marlins but they got two titles too so
5
u/CPline55 Detroit Tigers Jul 12 '25
What you want your team to have more RBI? That's a meaningless old school stat.
8
1
u/AmbiguousPuzuma New York Yankees Jul 13 '25
WINS+ measures their performance vs comparable teams in their division. It's a much better predictor for their chance to make the postseason.
448
u/bolshevik_rattlehead San Francisco Giants Jul 12 '25
Big if true
81
u/FishOnAHorse Cincinnati Reds Jul 12 '25
Gargantuan if verified
36
u/BroDudeBruhMan Chicago Cubs Jul 12 '25
Ginormous pending verification
30
u/solo_hahn Minnesota Twins Jul 12 '25
Colossal if correct
17
u/CheesyCheckers3713 Major League Baseball Jul 12 '25
Huge if authenticated.
13
u/ContinuumGuy Major League Baseball Jul 12 '25
Large if guilty as charged
10
u/NotAPersonl0 San Diego Padres • Boston Red Sox Jul 12 '25
Enormous if confirmed
10
u/Non-GMO_Asbestos Toronto Blue Jays Jul 12 '25
Giant if genuine.
7
3
1
117
u/MathaMeticulous Seattle Mariners Jul 12 '25
This wasn't true in 1971! The Senators lost to the Yankees on September 30th despite outscoring them 7-5.
84
31
u/Tashre Seattle Mariners Jul 12 '25
That's interesting. Did the score actually go in the books as 5-7 at the time? I know the current rules state a forfeited game gets recorded as 9-0 no matter what (though player stats are maintained).
19
u/zvexler Atlanta Braves Jul 12 '25
Forfeited games are entered as 9-0? Why?? And I know from scoragami that the NFL uses 2-0. None of this makes any sense
13
u/Tashre Seattle Mariners Jul 12 '25
No clue. The common assumption is that it equates to the winning team scoring a run in each inning, but that is just as arbitrary as a 1-0 win and the 1-run-per-inning claim has no sources but is one of those "someone probably said it once and it's been subsequently referenced since" kinds of things.
4
3
u/Klutzy-Sherbert3720 San Diego Padres Jul 13 '25
NFL probably just awards the lowest amount of points a team can score. MLB is maybe punishing teams for forfeiting since runs scored I believe can be a tiebreaker for standings?
3
48
u/MediumSizedTurtle Chicago Cubs Jul 12 '25
Still true, thousands of games a season and one game turns into a rounding error
8
u/The-original-spuggy San Francisco Giants Jul 13 '25
I wonder what’s stopping a mass gathering of opponents fans dressing up in home fans gear and starting to siege the field to cause a forfeit?
3
u/JaxxisR Jul 13 '25
The possibility of getting tased.
7
u/The-original-spuggy San Francisco Giants Jul 13 '25
They can’t taser 15,000 people at once
2
u/PendragonDaGreat Seattle Mariners Jul 13 '25
They can play Nickelback over the PA at max volume though.
3
1
u/Klutzy-Sherbert3720 San Diego Padres Jul 13 '25
I thought it was to punish a team with more than a loss for forfeiting. I'm assuming in a tiebreaker it could come down to runs scored?
3
u/BarrelStrawberry Philadelphia Phillies Jul 13 '25
You can listen to the radio broadcast of the chaos: https://youtu.be/BCLq66YvR0o?t=8232
3
u/kientran Texas Rangers Jul 13 '25
The fact that there is an actual exception to this stat would surprise me, but at this point I’ve come to expect if it could happen in baseball it did.
111
60
40
u/No_Angle_8106 Arizona Diamondbacks Jul 12 '25
I’ll need the university of Chicago to double check on this stat, not sure if I believe it yet
33
u/FreeBricks4Nazis Chicago Cubs Jul 12 '25
They confirmed the statistic, and added that it strongly implies that a lower top marginal tax rate is good for overall GDP growth
10
3
u/Total-Ordinary9424 Chicago Cubs • Seattle Mariners Jul 12 '25
This may be beyond their capabilities, i’ll contact MIT and NASA
1
u/Random_Fog Chicago Cubs Jul 13 '25
No no. MIT and NASA are far to practical. U of C is perfect for this.
34
u/Turk3YbAstEr Jul 12 '25
Winning game 6 of a series almost always leads to winning the series, but every team that has won game 7 has gone on to win the series.
31
u/verhaust Jul 12 '25 edited Jul 14 '25
For context, since explaining a joke always makes it funnier, they were discussing how some baseball people think it is super important to score first. They think that because the winning % of teams that score first is quite high. So you have some people selling out to score that first run. Then Boog and JD started joking about the winning % of teams that score more runs. So instead of selling out for that first run, how about just score more?
10
u/factionssharpy San Francisco Giants Jul 13 '25
It's in the same vein as "players tend to hit better in games their team won."
It's amazing how many people cite "so-and-so hit great in games his team won, but look how much worse he hit in games his team lost! Couldn't get it done when it matters!"
1
u/journeej Houston Astros Jul 13 '25
Astros broadcast is constantly putting up these W vs L numbers, and I fucking hate it.
7
u/Intergalactic_Ass Chicago Cubs Jul 13 '25
Our booth is gold. A mixture of stats dorks and snarky old schoolers.
29
u/PorousCheese Seattle Mariners Jul 12 '25
It’s crazy how many people don’t understand or forget that. Like on any given day, half the league just decides not to score more points. That’s the goal guys, you have to score more to win, and half of them just don’t on a daily basis. It’s mind boggling.
18
u/Wings81 Minnesota Twins Jul 12 '25
More? Some of them don't even bother to score AT ALL! Don't ask me to prove this, but I swear I've seen games where one of the teams scores like NO RUNS! I mean, come on. How do you forget to do that?!
5
u/ActualWhiterabbit Minnesota Twins Jul 13 '25
I watched a game one time and one guy didn't even bat. Some other guy did it for him and that guy didn't even try to swing at some of the pitches.
12
u/Hero0ftheday Seattle Mariners Jul 12 '25
This is the hard hitting journalism that makes the Cubs broadcast one of the best in the sport.
10
u/mrbadxampl Jul 12 '25
"Ya gotta see. Cuz if ya can't see, then ya then ya don't know what you're lookin' at" - Frank Caliendo's John Madden
3
8
u/Mysterio7100 Los Angeles Dodgers Jul 12 '25
Imagine how good the Cubs would be if they could win a few games when they're not scoring more.
6
5
11
u/mysterysackerfice Los Angeles Angels • Dumpster Fire Jul 12 '25
When /r/technicallythetruth meets /r/restofthefuckingowl
5
9
5
8
5
u/SafecoFieldForever Seattle Mariners Jul 12 '25
Of the over 200,000 MLB games in which one team scores more than the other, all 100% of them have won. Of all the misinformation out there, this is one of the most obvious: 100% is approximately 100 times as much as 1.000%. Don't believe everything you see.
3
u/cat-n-jazz Toronto Blue Jays Jul 13 '25
30 September 1971, NY Yankees are outscored by the Washington Senators (now the Texas Rangers) but win the game.
2
u/SafecoFieldForever Seattle Mariners Jul 13 '25
Don't forfeits make the final score 9-0 in favor of the team that didn't forfeit?
3
3
3
u/Vulpes_Artifex Jul 12 '25
Didn't the Mets lose a game they scored more runs in last year or something?
3
u/Tashre Seattle Mariners Jul 13 '25
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN202309280.shtml
Two years ago against the Marlins.
This is one of those things you could get incredibly pedantic about if you wanted to. You could say that technically the Mets scored fewer runs than the other team during the course of the game that was played, but officially they scored more during the innings that were retained.
1
u/Vulpes_Artifex Jul 13 '25
Oh, it looks like it was the Marlins that lost. Thanks for dredging it up, I was having trouble finding it and thought I might have made it up.
3
4
2
u/SpectralHydra Detroit Tigers Jul 12 '25
Imagine if there was one game a year where the goal was to score the least amount of runs
3
1
u/Alectheawesome23 New York Mets Jul 13 '25
I mean that feels easy. All you have to do is swing and miss at everything. Swing the bat at the worst possible spot. If they could get away with it I’d try to stand as far away from the plate as possible while doing so.
1
u/Cooperstown24 Seattle Mariners Jul 13 '25
Pitchers wouldnt bother throwing the pitch. Who would get the clock violation if both Pitcher and batter are not ready?
2
u/Alectheawesome23 New York Mets Jul 13 '25 edited Jul 13 '25
The batter has less time to get ready and thus the hitters clock violation would trigger first.
I forgot about how pitch clock violations would affect this lol. So all batters would have to do is not stand in the box and they’d be called out.
So actually the meta of scoring less runs than your opponent would be intentionally walking everybody. So the away team would have more runs every time bc nobody would ever have the chance to hit or get out.
1
2
u/Infinite_Ground1395 Baltimore Orioles Jul 13 '25
These advanced stats have gotten way out of hand.
2
u/Thrill0728 Chicago Cubs Jul 13 '25 edited Jul 13 '25
I mean, Boog's theory is absolutely correct. Scoring first does give an advantage, but scoring more gives a bigger one.
2
u/FeedbackOtherwise881 Jul 13 '25
I love JD. He's like the Martin Brundle for Cubs baseball (for me at least)
2
2
2
2
2
u/elrond165 Houston Astros Jul 16 '25
Now that someone has revealed the secret, it's time to go to Vegas!
3
2
1
u/sloppyjo12 Rosie Red • Dayton Dragons Jul 12 '25
Well shit we should try that more, I wonder if it would work for us too
1
u/Boxman75 Los Angeles Dodgers Jul 12 '25
Geez I can never wrap my head around these super esoteric stats nowadays.
1
1
1
1
1
1
u/CalebosO4 Toronto Blue Jays Jul 12 '25
Team's only win 1.000% of the games they score more than their opponent? I guess teams should score less then.
1
1
1
1
u/BlacksmithSolid645 Jul 12 '25
you need a team who understands how to win games at a major league level
1
1
1
1
1
u/AlligatorRaper Jul 13 '25
I wonder what that win pct drops to when they aren’t scoring more. Unfortunately my abacus is broken rn
1
1
u/motorhead84 San Francisco Giants • Crazy Crab Jul 13 '25
They done do good things and they done them good.
1
1
1
u/LittliestDickus Atlanta Braves Jul 13 '25
I dont know about this stat. Has no team won by forced forfeit while behind? Or tied I guess.
1
1
1
1
1
u/ViolinistMean199 Toronto Blue Jays Jul 13 '25
Wait hold on
Are you saying the cubs are undefeated when they win
1
u/dwaynebathtub Kansas City Royals Jul 13 '25
I invented a stat.
(RA/L)-(RF/W). I call it "ARF"
Cubs: 56-39, 508-392
(392/39)= 10.05 (The Cubs lose a game every time they give up 10.05 runs)
(508/56) = 9.07 (The Cubs need to score 9.07 runs to win)
10.05-9.07 = 0.98 Below Average (league average is 1.000; standard deviation = ~0.200)
This means that the Cubs blowout a lot of teams in their wins, but lose a lot of close games.
A value above average would mean the opposite (when the team loses, they get blown out; and when they win they win by a close margin). Essentially, you want to not have to score so much to win and you want to give up all your runs in your few losses.
1
u/AandM4ever Miami Marlins Jul 13 '25
Next interesting fact….every hit this year has been initiated by the swing of a bat.
1
1
1
u/Gold_Project5631 Jul 13 '25
Boog might be a dork, but he's not wrong, this stat is hilariously obvious yet weirdly satisfying. Who knew the secret to winning was just... scoring more runs?
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
u/HotSoupEsq Kansas City Royals Jul 13 '25
JFC this must be some AI shit, pathetic for a franchise with as much money as the cubs.
1
1
1
u/BeingofUniverse Baltimore Orioles Jul 13 '25
I love how they had to specify "this season" as baseball has a long and weird enough history that this winds up not being 100% true.
1
1
1
1
1
u/TJB_the_Gamer1 Los Angeles Dodgers Jul 18 '25
why don't they try scoring more runs than there opponents every game?
1
u/KnuckleDeepInDave Jul 12 '25
It was centered around the dated idea of “you want to score early” against a good pitcher. Sure but one run early usually doesn’t stand up obviously. So things like bunts and moving the runner over with a ground out to “play for one” aren’t that valuable. Crooked numbers is what you are looking for. Nothing groundbreaking but added context to Boog and JD.
1
0
0
u/Positive-Bar5893 Jul 12 '25
Big if true.
Really revolutionizes the sport when you put it in that perspective, the game will NEVER be the same.
853
u/JaysonTatecum Boston Red Sox • Seattle Mariners Jul 12 '25
That's kinda crazy. The Cubs are 56-0 when outscoring their opponent and 0-39 when getting outscored