2018: the year everyone drafted wrong

[u/Bermut-Nundaloy]

None of the 10 best players in the 2018 draft were actually picked in the top 10. In fact, only 3 of them went in the first 2 rounds. Here's what a redraft would look like, if everyone actually drafted correctly. Pretty wild to imagine this alternate MLB.

Other notable players in the draft: Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Kris Bubic, Lawrence Butler, Brice Turang. Bohm, India, and Mize weren't terrible picks. How would you redraft 2018?

[u/GunpeiYokai]

I forgot that Kyler Murray was drafted that high

[u/ih-unh-unh → u/GunpeiYokai]

r/baseball was so shocked that he entered the NFL draft instead of taking MLB draft bonus.

[u/invalid_bagel → u/ih-unh-unh]

It blows my mind people thought that would actually be a hard choice. The A's fucked up so much by letting him play football another year.

If he was a mid round defensive player, it might have been a debate, but a first round QB was always gonna go to the NFL. He's already made more than everyone in that draft outside of skubal and mayyybe Raleigh ever will

[u/TheFestusEzeli → u/invalid_bagel]

Jeff Samardzija picking baseball over football was really risky from a financial perspective, and he was a better football player than baseball, but it worked out. Got signed to a five year deal worth 90 million the same year Demaryius Thomas got 5 years 70 million, even if he became the best player in the NFL he would have gotten more money for being a solid pitcher.

I’d also be scared about head injuries if I was a receiver or running back. But first round QB? 10/10 I’d take that from Murray’s perspective

[u/future_sommelier → u/TheFestusEzeli]

Can’t forget about the guaranteed money piece. Baseball is 100% guaranteed while football almost never pays a player their full contract.

[u/bbaIla → u/future_sommelier]

You have to be good to get that. Kyler got like 150 mil for being decent at best.

[u/mikecws91 → u/TheFestusEzeli]

And that $90 million deal was after an absolute garbage season where he was tipping his pitches for months. I’m not bitter.

[u/douchebaggery5000 → u/TheFestusEzeli]

Didn’t he ironically cause his teammates concussion on accident?

[u/mastersplinteremover → u/douchebaggery5000]

That whole stupid thing was Strickland’s fault. I don’t blame Smardisdja for it one bit.

[u/sfan27 → u/mastersplinteremover]

Fuck Hunter Strickland.

[u/OUTFOXEM → u/douchebaggery5000]

Mike Morse. And Morse is a tank.

[u/evilgenius29 → u/OUTFOXEM]

I'm picturing action RPG character Mike Morse taunting so Kyler Murray and Jeff Samardzija can get some attacks off.

[u/jstewart25 → u/TheFestusEzeli]

Don’t tell Tua QBs don’t get head injuries. Not sure he’d understand you even if you tried though, I guess.

[u/jus10beare → u/invalid_bagel]

16 games in fall weather vs 162 in the summer heat

[u/Leftfeet → u/ih-unh-unh]

I think it was more that everyone expected him to choose baseball because of his size, and comments prior to the draft. It wasn't the money that shocked people in my recollection. 

[u/GunpeiYokai → u/ih-unh-unh]

It takes stones to pass up $4.66M. Good thing he got that big contract in 2022.

[u/Always_Chubb-y → u/GunpeiYokai]

I mean he didnt even need that 2nd contract and he would've won

His rookie contract for the NFL was over $35 million guaranteed

[u/3pointshoot3r → u/Always_Chubb-y]

This is the thing. People talk about NFL contracts as non-guaranteed, but it's simply not true - particularly for first round draft picks. NFL rookie scale contracts guarantee the first THREE years to a player. Meanwhile, MLB rookie scale contracts are not only for the minimum salary (ie. much smaller than NFL first round picks), but they are year-to-year. If you flame out in your first year, that's it! If you need thoracic valve surgery in your shoulder, your team can stop paying you after that one year of service.

[u/Coreybib → u/GunpeiYokai]

Oh… I’ve never forgotten… it was a terrible pick at the time.

[u/Throwaway1996513 → u/Coreybib]

Was it? If singer is who you’d get on redraft I think the risk of Murray was worth it.

[u/bordomsdeadly → u/GunpeiYokai]

The A’s really screwed up by allowing him to play that last year of College Football

[u/Throwaway1996513 → u/GunpeiYokai]

Honestly i think I’d still rather gamble on the potential of Murray than get what Singer has done.

[u/Rjptz → u/GunpeiYokai]

he still plays for a baseball team if you don’t think too hard about it

[u/ncbraves93 → u/GunpeiYokai]

Can't believe that was as far back as 2018.

[u/Comprehensive-Bus-20]

Something tells me the Mariners drafted right

[u/MysteriousEdge5643 → u/Comprehensive-Bus-20]

You can complain about a lot with the Mariners organization in the Dipoto era, but drafting has not been one of them. 

[u/Seattlefan51 → u/MysteriousEdge5643]

Crushes the drafts and most deadlines, and makes awful moves in the offseason (thank you Stanton and Co. for making it even more difficult)

[u/LoveYouLikeYeLovesYe → u/Seattlefan51]

Jerry is like the current age Andrew Friedman or davis stearns. If you took him out from under his budget constraints where he has to basically trade away every position of depth/strength to patch a more dire hole he would be a great GM.

[u/futureformerteacher → u/MysteriousEdge5643]

Scott Hunter is the God of Drafts.

[u/monoglot]

Bohm and Mize have been All-Stars. India was Rookie of the Year. I'd call those successful draft picks no matter when they were picked, or who was picked after them.

[u/MindoverMatter92 → u/monoglot]

Not gonna lie though, seeing some of these other names that the Phillies had the chance to take does sting. I’m not the biggest fan of Bohm lol.

Stephan Kwan would have been amazing, specially considering how desperate we were and have been for a legit outfielder.

[u/msing]

Drafts are notoriously hard, and to even earn more than 1WAR would be considered a success.

[u/Tsaxen → u/msing]

Yeah honestly, like Alec Bohm and Johnathan India are absolutely huge wins, and frankly there's a decent chance that Casey Mize ends up being a big win too.

That being said, Skubal going at 255 absolutely has to make every team in baseball feel real dumb

[u/kodiaksr7 → u/Tsaxen]

Pujols was drafted 402nd. lol. 

[u/OUTFOXEM → u/kodiaksr7]

32 year olds don’t get drafted high typically.

[u/bobcarwash → u/OUTFOXEM]

He had a hell of an age 55 season though you gotta admit.

[u/OUTFOXEM → u/bobcarwash]

I’m a big Pujols fan. That season was amazing.

[u/sfan27 → u/bobcarwash]

I always will think he changed his number to 55 playing for the Dodgers as an homage to his true age.

[u/ditchboyus → u/kodiaksr7]

From what I understand, the only reason the Cardinals took Pujols at all was that their local area scout raved about him, but nobody in the front office was impressed. By the time they got to pick 402 it was basically "well, there's nobody decent left so we might as well just take this guy our area scout keeps talking about, even though he won't amount to anything. "

[u/MeynellR → u/ditchboyus]

That's not the worst reasoning behind someone being drafted. Mike Piazza was drafted 1390th in the 62nd round after his dad asked Tommy Lasorda to draft him as a favour.

[u/milkshakemountebank → u/MeynellR]

Lasorda was the other Puazza kid's godfather! It was so funny

[u/wut-n-tarnation → u/ditchboyus]

Makes ya wonder what kind of players where passed up on… similar thing with mike piazza.

[u/CDFReditum → u/wut-n-tarnation]

That’s kinda why I love late round draft picks doing well lol. I understand why they limited the rounds to 20 but like then you get people like Jared Walsh who were super late round picks that ended up having some amazing seasons. who knows if Walsh ever got to do what he did if the late rounds didn’t exist or if whatever scout liked him just didn’t notice him.

Even undrafted picks like Michael Stefanic or Jack Mayfield they didn’t change the world or anything but they put up some numbers and really proved themselves as worthy

[u/detroit_dickdawes → u/Tsaxen]

I don’t think the Tigers feel dumb about it but yeah

[u/Patrick2701 → u/Tsaxen]

A lot of India WAR was built up in his rookie year

[u/lockethebro → u/Patrick2701]

that doesn't make it worth any less

[u/redlegsfan21 → u/Patrick2701]

And the Reds turned Jonathan India into Brady Singer, who is #9 on this list. If you told a front office that their #5 pick would turn into a top ten player in the draft, they would take it every time.

[u/sameth1 → u/Patrick2701]

If anything, that just makes him more of a draft hit and his career has derailed for reasons that didn't exist at the time of the draft.

[u/vmeloni1232 → u/msing]

I've never been able to truly answer the question of what makes a high draft pick a bust. Baseball is so unpredictable and hard to judge as the levels of pro ball goes up, that if you're a first round pick and just make it to the majors, you're successful. But that seems like such a low bar.

[u/Leftfeet → u/vmeloni1232]

Not reaching MLB is a 1st round bust. Putting up negative WAR is also a bust i think, but not a terrible bust. 

I think in MLB there are way more misses than busts. The gap between amateur and MLB is so massive that it's really hard to get a slam dunk. But guys drafted high that barely stick in MLB are still misses, like a Will Benson for example. He's promising still but hasn't been good overall. That's not what you expected when he got drafted 14th overall. 

[u/DrAlanThicke → u/Leftfeet]

Yeah I mean skenes and Harper are the only real slam dunk guys in recent memory and they were over a decade apart

[u/hodken0446 → u/DrAlanThicke]

I think you could throw Strasburg in there too

[u/Hot_Injury7719 → u/hodken0446]

It’s insane that the Nats ended up with Starsburg and Harper lol

[u/fearofair → u/hodken0446]

Yeah Strasburg and I was gonna say Kris Bryant but he actually went second i see, lol Astros

[u/inab1gcountry → u/DrAlanThicke]

Skenes wasn’t viewed as a slam dunk. He wasn’t viewed as the obvious 1:1 (that was crews) and there was discussion about lack of track record and “bad fastball shape”. Many Pirates fans wanted crews or Langford.

[u/vmeloni1232 → u/Leftfeet]

Well said

[u/RogerTreebert6299 → u/msing]

But how about .9 WAR + pedigree

[u/nokiabrickphone1998]

Hot take, but I’m happy that the draft didn’t play out this way

[u/Bermut-Nundaloy → u/nokiabrickphone1998]

Yeah, the Mariners would definitely not be contenders if they hadn't gotten 2 of the top 5-7 players in this draft.

[u/Philip_Marlowe → u/nokiabrickphone1998]

Same. Nico is the soul of this era of Cubs baseball. Glad he's not a Phillie.

[u/CygnusN7]

This right here is why I am doubtful the Giants would do well drafting in the top 5 next year.

[u/misterurb → u/CygnusN7]

Every once in a while I see that chart showing that the Giants’ first round picks since 2015 accounting for, like, a cumulative 1 WAR and man. Not ideal.

[u/Patrick2701 → u/misterurb]

That is how the last 9 1/2 years, giants have been so meh and even bad expects for 2021

[u/prestigiousstrangery → u/CygnusN7]

Ehh the draft is a notorious crapshoot. The fact that none of the guys in the top 10 ended up being serious game changers and in a redraft the first two players taken were from the 3rd and 9th rounds proves it.

If anything it shows how dogwater the Giants organizational development has been over the past decade plus under three different regimes

[u/IveGotaGoldChain → u/prestigiousstrangery]

The draft is becoming much less of a crapshoot with the level of play in college baseball as well as advanced technology such as force plates, proteus, etc. Teams have a much better idea of what things translate to MLB level players.

Look at the 2023 draft. Skenes, langford, Wilson, crews to an extent, lowder, all already contributing.

2024 already has a decent amount of guys called up although off the top of my head I can't think of any doing well other than Kurtz. 

2025 draft was considered weak which is why there were so many HS players taken high. 

2026 will be interesting. Some decent college players

[u/IAmBecomeTeemo → u/IveGotaGoldChain]

Every kid that teams are considering have been to a facility that measures everything. Even things like velocity (pitcher and hitter exit velocity) are more results-based than what teams can look at. They can now measure the things that lead to the results that lead to on-field results. And they plot them against other prospects and MLB pros. The good organizations know what's natural, and what's teachable. They can pick up a talented player and know how to tweak things to get them where they need to be to see success at the MLB level.

[u/FaintCommand → u/IAmBecomeTeemo]

Sure, but you really can't know if a kid is going to be able to hit a major league slider. Or keep their control once they have to throw 100 pitches to 9 guys who can blister the ball.

You can spot the natural skills, talent, and drive. And you can teach some things, but not everything, and as others have said - it is such a huge gap between college/HS and the majors.

[u/39_Ringo → u/prestigiousstrangery]

If anything it really should make them reconsider having their AAA affiliate in Sacramento when Oracle is literally on the water...

[u/Patrick2701 → u/CygnusN7]

Since Bobby Evans is back in the front office in San Fran aka old guys

[u/Jonjon428]

God, the A's wasting a first round pick with that Kyler Murray selection is still so bizarre

[u/immoralsupport_ → u/Jonjon428]

Murray would never be drafted that high today, even without the football part. He wasn’t really an elite player in college

[u/Slow-Raccoon-9832 → u/immoralsupport_]

Putting up the numbers he did in college while also playing quarterback was incredibly impressive

He had far less time to focus on baseball and he still has something like a .950 ops

Also he was projected to be an elite elite defender with a cannon for an arm

[u/aztechunter → u/Slow-Raccoon-9832]

Pretty quick on the base path too, little toddler steals lmao

[u/JackieDaytonaAZ → u/aztechunter]

he would be a perfectly average sized mlb player

[u/BedBubbly317 → u/JackieDaytonaAZ]

No he wouldn’t, the average height in MLB is almost 6’2 haha

[u/aztechunter → u/JackieDaytonaAZ]

It's how he runs, rather than his stature

[u/BradyBoy_ → u/Slow-Raccoon-9832]

One thing that stuck with me because I was so confused by it was that Kyler had a below average arm grade going into the draft. Like a 40/80. I still don't understand how a talented NFL bound quarterback got a grade that low when it feels like most outfield prospects at worst have a 45 if not 50 grade for arm.

[u/immoralsupport_ → u/Slow-Raccoon-9832]

Even still, I feel like of late the “freak athlete who can play up the middle but had strikeout issues in college” is more of a late first round profile, someone like Spencer Jones or Vance Honeycutt. I don’t think someone like that would go in the top 10 picks in 2025

[u/ExcellentT18 → u/Jonjon428]

I remember at the time it seemed more likely he would play baseball than football.

[u/Coreybib → u/ExcellentT18]

I remember it being close to 50/50. He really enjoyed football. The only reason I think baseball was in play was the health and guaranteed money.

[u/ExcellentT18 → u/Coreybib]

It was whether or not he would be the #1 overall pick.

I think once Cardinals hired Kliff Kingsbury who has been grooming him since he was in high school, it was likely he would be the #1 pick.

[u/NotKaz → u/ExcellentT18]

He wasn't even projected to be a first round NFL pick going into the season he ended up winning the Heisman. Everyone thought he was gonna play football in the fall then join the A's minor leagues. If the A's thought there was any chance of that happening when they signed him they wouldn't have drafted him or let him go back to play football.

[u/zebrainatux → u/NotKaz]

I looked through 3 early mocks, no one had Murray even sniffing the first round since he was a backup to Baker. A lot of them had either Herbert (who would go 6th in 2020 after staying the extra year) or Jarrett Stidham as their number one QB

[u/ExcellentT18 → u/zebrainatux]

That's because 1 CFB season can change your entire trajectory. Joe Burrow went from mid-rounder to easy #1 overall pick.

[u/BiggestBossRickRoss → u/ExcellentT18]

Joe burrow wasnt even on draft boards. He couldnt even win the starting job at OSU. Then he played one of the greatest seasons in ncaa history at LSU. Pretty wild

[u/Blaine8628 → u/BiggestBossRickRoss]

He was on some mid rounds in mocks before the 2019 season

[u/OUTFOXEM → u/ExcellentT18]

Kliff Kingsbury who has been grooming him since he was in high school

💀💀💀

[u/Quartznonyx → u/Coreybib]

Why do people talk about guaranteed money? In his case, he was guaranteed 35 million as a rookie. His earning potential was always in football lol.

[u/devAcc123 → u/ExcellentT18]

Jeff smardjia (not even gonna google or attempt to spell correctly)

[u/Patrick2701 → u/Jonjon428]

In a weird way, Braves wasted that previous pick, as well

[u/Higgnkfe → u/Patrick2701]

Yes and no. They didn’t sign him because they wanted to go under slot because of his wrist issues, and he said fuck that I’ll go pitch in Japan. I guess it kind of worked out for him since he got a nice contract, but no MLB ball. And the Braves got the ninth pick in the next draft to draft Shea Langeliers

[u/vites70]

This is why when a team trades prospects I don't get pissed. You never know how things will turn out. If you have a shot to win a WS, then go for it.

[u/NotAcutallyaPanda → u/vites70]

Found AJ Preller’s burner

[u/JDraks]

I'd take Skubal over Raleigh

[u/miquellested1 → u/JDraks]

As a neutral fan I would take Skubal over anyone on this list as well.

[u/2011StlCards → u/miquellested1]

Yeah, Skubal is an ace, but have you seen that Dumper?

[u/GiveHerDPS → u/2011StlCards]

Any team in the league would love to have either of these players on their team

[u/rokboks505 → u/2011StlCards]

A man of culture I see

[u/PitchingSamurai → u/JDraks]

Ironically if Skubal would be 1-1 in 2018, he would still play for the Tigers. So Skubal at Tigers is predestined.

[u/mind-blowin → u/JDraks]

Especially if you consider current roster. Yea Dingler obviously isn’t Raleigh, but he’s a very good catcher and the difference between a pitcher like Skubal and even a serviceable starter like Mize is insane. I would take Skubal over Raleigh 10/10 times.

[u/irrelevantgarlic → u/JDraks]

If you flip the Mize and Skubal picks it looks a lot better for the Tigers

[u/warped_and_bubbling → u/JDraks]

I would too.

But this specific M's team is less in need of a Skubal and more in need of a Dumper.

[u/Stickin8or → u/JDraks]

Honestly, that's a 1 and 2 I could see going either way

[u/gogorath → u/JDraks]

Yes, everyone would. I suspect they just ranked by current season WAR or something.

[u/Bermut-Nundaloy → u/gogorath]

I ranked by career fWAR, which Raleigh leads 21.2 to 18.5

[u/karldrogo88 → u/JDraks]

I wouldn’t, but it’s only a preference for a position player over a pitcher. I know a catcher isn’t exactly a position that doesn’t have to deal with injury either, but at least he could still maybe DH and have value.

[u/HailHydra71]

Counterpoint: these players aren't guaranteed to become what they are if they were in a different system.

[u/samuelLOLjackson → u/HailHydra71]

Kwan is only known now because he spent a year just hammering home his consistent batting, in system. Things like that matter.

[u/SchpartyOn → u/HailHydra71]

Exactly. Skubal didn’t become Skubal until 4 years in. Would another organization have been patient with him had he been drafted that high?

[u/sooaap → u/SchpartyOn]

I bet Seattle might be on the short list of teams that would.

[u/CheesyPZ-Crust → u/HailHydra71]

It's why I find the framing of this post kind of stupid. Every sport has drafts where teams miss, and none of this accounts for the team's roster at the time nor their current prospects they were still trying to develop or invested in

[u/DaBusDriva2]

2016-18 is a really really bad stretch of 1st rounds for everyone.

[u/Patrick2701 → u/DaBusDriva2]

Same, I would agree with that statement

[u/Educational_Box7143 → u/DaBusDriva2]

The 2018 draft wasn't bad for 1st round picks. 11 players from that 1st round are currently everyday players with another 4 players who would be everyday players if it wasn't for injuries this year.

[u/RealCanadianDragon]

MLBs drafts are basically lottery tickets.

The higher your pick, the more tickets you get, but it doesn't guarantee you win or even get anything at all from them.

[u/Jhamfan99]

I’ll be honest, I love Cal, but Tarik is definitely 1-1

[u/Interesting_Rock_318]

No way I’m not taking Skubal over Raleigh.

Raleigh can be pitched around in October, Skubal has the makeup to throw 19 innings with 2Ws and a 3+ inning save in a dominating playoff series performance.

Raleigh is fantastic, but I’m taking the bonafide ace 100 times out of 100

[u/Padulsky21 → u/Interesting_Rock_318]

He’s also a workhorse. Tossing the amount of innings he does with a 4 ERA is very valuable. Instead he’s doing it striking out 200+ with a 2.32 ERA

[u/Bermut-Nundaloy → u/Interesting_Rock_318]

I think this is a reasonable take. I'd probably bet on Skubal in 2026.

I will say I do think it matters that it took Skubal a few years to become Ace Skubal and the Tigers only have him for one more season. His 2022 and 2023, he wasn't quite there yet. Here's fWAR for the last 4 years:

Year	Raleigh	Skubal
2022	4.2	2.9
2023	4.4	3.3
2024	5.4	5.9
2025	7.3	5.9

I think Raleigh is gonna end up being more valuable in 2022, 2023, and 2025. IMO it's arguable and I would respect the call either way. My list in the post was just ordered by fWAR and then I bumped Hoerner and Singer down a bit for not having as good peak seasons.

[u/glamb70 → u/Bermut-Nundaloy]

Facts. Just the facts man.

[u/Most-Artichoke6184]

Seeing Nick Madrigal picked number four makes me want to weep.

[u/HaV0C → u/Most-Artichoke6184]

He had like a decent 2 months with y'all right?

[u/Most-Artichoke6184 → u/HaV0C]

Totally worth that number four pick!

[u/Icy-Main6586 → u/Most-Artichoke6184]

Ole Nicky 2 strikes ending up striking out… dude was complete ass the second the cubs traded for him from the Sox.

[u/Riderz__of_Brohan → u/Icy-Main6586]

He was not good on the White Sox either lol

We traded for him when he was still essentially a project player and a highly rated one tbh

[u/atlsportsburner]

Kelenic Guy is certainly going to have some thoughts on this one 

[u/Magai → u/atlsportsburner]

Pedigree

[u/pizzaguy132]

I see nothing wrong with how the Mariners drafted and wouldn't change a thing.

[u/Potential-Ad5470]

You could make one of these lists for every draft

[u/Educational_Box7143]

Baseball drafts really are so random. So many top picks never turn into anything. And then you'll have a 9th round pick turn into the best pitcher in baseball. Just making it to the majors is a W for a lot of these prospects.

[u/crudshoot]

Who’s taking Cal over Skubal? That’s a wild take.

[u/AC0909]

Cal over Skubal? Idk about that.

[u/stoneman9284]

Bart 88 picks ahead of Raleigh 🥴

[u/TheVich → u/stoneman9284]

Yeah, but anyone would have been laughed out of the room for taking Raleigh that high. Like, I get this being an amusing image to see, but Bart was consensus top 2 pick that year (and Mize was the consensus top pick). The way everyone's careers ended up doesn't change that. And that's not even taking into account organizational ability to develop talent.

[u/stoneman9284 → u/TheVich]

Totally yea I wasn’t saying it as a critique of the giants front office

[u/IbakaFlockaFlame]

Wow the Tigers didn't pick future superstar Tarik Skubal despite having the 1st overall pick? Idiots. I bet that bit them in the ass.

[u/Everybodyhasapryce]

Skubal over Raleigh easily.

The Tigers made the right pick.

Just many rounds later.

[u/RainCitySeaChicken2]

I feel like the Mariners drafted well

[u/coys21]

MLB drafts are just this way.

[u/Chrono_Constant3]

This is the worst presented infographic I have ever seen.

[u/bottle_boys]

Phillies legend Alex Bohm

[u/ThrowawayBin20]

I don’t even remember anything about the 2018 Mets if we’re being honest

[u/Blue387 → u/ThrowawayBin20]

Jeff McNeil made his MLB debut, Mickey Callaway was manager and they started the season 11-1 before losing a bunch of games. The Mets lost 25-4 to Washington but then beat the Phillies 24-4.

2018 was also the final season for David Wright and he played his final MLB game.

[u/Geek-Envelope-Power → u/Blue387]

Also:

December 3, 2018: (Edwin DIaz) Traded by the Seattle Mariners with Robinson Canó and cash to the New York Mets for Gerson Bautista, Jay Bruce, Justin Dunn, Jarred Kelenic and Anthony Swarzak.

Kelenic and some other guys became Cano and Diaz.

[u/elgenie]

Hoerner’s the WARlord of that class by bWAR.

[u/Bermut-Nundaloy → u/elgenie]

Yes, even over Skubal, which is kinda wild. I mostly put them in fWAR order but couldn't bring myself to have Hoerner over Skubal

[u/elgenie → u/Bermut-Nundaloy]

The trick is that Skubal's only been his current superlatively good for two years (WAR is a counting stat and he pitched under 200 combined innings in '22 & '23), while Hoerner's been at this level of performance for four.

Skubal had accumulated 5.1 career bWAR at the end of 2023, both guys' age-26 season. Hoerner, meanwhile, already had 11.9 career bWAR at that point. That's a near-impossible lead to erase in two seasons when the guy Skubal's aiming to catch has also added 8.7 bWAR in that time.

[u/Optimistic-Dan]

It is weird how so much of a player's success at the big league level has to do with the quality of their coaching in both the minors and majors, as well as the quality of teammates around them. So even if this hypothetical redraft was real, we'd be seeing re-re drafts of all sorts of random orders

[u/Timesx4]

The mariners drafted well.

[u/MarinersSanguine]

Looks like the mariners drafted right

[u/craziboiXD69]

wait theres a guy who actually has the last name "swaggerty"? i thought that was just the meme last name we gave sam haggarty

[u/JPGentry]

Swaggerty is a 1st round name tbf

[u/AFWUSA]

God this is crazy to see

[u/holyd1ver83]

For any new fans of baseball: yes, that Kyler Murray. There was real tension as to whether he'd play football or baseball at the time.

[u/Brutally-Honest-]

The MLB draft is such a crap shoot. Top 10 picks feel almost meaningless.

[u/CampSubject9176]

Captain hindsight strikes again. I don’t think you know how players are valued and how player development works. For example Tarik Skubal missed most of 2016 and all of 2017 because of tommy john. Anyone that selected him in the first round would immediately lose their jobs.

[u/suitsAndAwesomeness]

show the war in the first image

[u/Bermut-Nundaloy → u/suitsAndAwesomeness]

Raleigh 21.2
Skubal 18.5
Hoerner 18.6
Kwan 14.5
Gilbert 14.2
Pena 13.1
Duran 12.0
Ryan 11.6
Singer 12.7
Donovan 9.5
Nootbaar 9.5

[u/hewhoamareismyself]

Tough for me to agree that everyone drafted wrong when players need to develop so much more after being drafted in MLB than any other sport. I guess I'd have to see a comparison to other drafts, but imo it's really hard to justify picking this draft in particular when the rookie of the year was still top 5.

[u/SpaghettiNCoffee]

To be fair with everyone calling Kyler Murray a bad draft pick, how many TD passes have any of these players thrown in this time?

[u/DixonButs12]

Tarik is #1

[u/donta5k0kay]

lol Kyler Murray, I remember that

[u/bony_doughnut]

Yo, that 7th round was fucking stacked!

[u/TheyGaveMeThisTrain]

Joey Fucking Bart

[u/Measure76]

Everyone? Looks like the Mariners did well.

[u/JLemke33]

Skubal Raleigh Peña Gilbert/Ryan Kwan/Hoerner

[u/I3arusu]

> Raleigh over Skubal

I don't even need to look at OP's flair lol

[u/randloadable19 → u/I3arusu]

The draft order is by career fWAR rankings, which Raleigh leads Skubal in

[u/NightShiftLoser]

Did not realize Kelenic had positive WAR

[u/itsTF]

speaking as someone who has hoerner in fantasy, knowing we could've had nico hoerner instead of alec bohm makes me feel like alec bohm was a pretty okay pick

[u/TFOCyborg]

His Majesty Lars Nootbar

[u/oOoleveloOo]

For those wondering, Carter Stewart didn’t sign with the Braves and ended up going to Japan and is still playing in NPB.

[u/CheesyPZ-Crust]

"The year everyone drafted wrong"

I mean if the Tigers got Skubal at #255, then who cares in the long run how they "missed" at #1? MLB drafts aren't cut and dry in terms of prospect rankings and their expected value at the MLB level. As well as the current roster development and prospects already in development will greatly impact draft decisions.

Like Skubal was #255... Literally every team involved the draft didn't find him to be an elite talent worth investing in. Hard to criticize the Tigers there. Plenty of these guys listed are drafted beyond the second round. It's further proof that the MLB draft is very volatile in what prospects expected or potential value is in the future

[u/BriskManeuver]

A's legend kyler murray

[u/__Shake__]

sounds like a crap shoot basically

[u/picachu_456]

Is the first pic a mock draft?

[u/Dom2133344]

There’s only 4 good players here.

[u/LegendRazgriz]

Isn't this the same Carter Stewart Jr. that got paid a fat bill to go to Fukuoka and just up and left for Japan?

[u/Total-Discount1347]

MLB drafts are a pure casino. The only ranking that matters is did they win the big game for you? I think i remember Pena personally ending the Mariners a couple years back.

[u/BedBubbly317]

I would be taking Skubal first overall. That’s not a knock on Cal whatsoever, either one would be a great choice. I personally just take the true ace 10/10 times

[u/Screwzoo2k]

pena's rookie year is one of the best of all-time. ws mvp

[u/luzhindefence]

Wonder how Ryan Weathers’ mom is doing? Hope she’s not reading your post

[u/DirtyRatLicker]

I thought Casey Mize was a solid starter for Detroit...

[u/DrMindbendersMonocle]

9 WAR isnt half bad

[u/YEGSports]

"I feel like [3000 hits] is very reachable" -Nick Madrigal

[u/DonBrodkaJr]

Carter Stewart just CRUSHING it.... In Japan

[u/LoveYouLikeYeLovesYe]

I just saw Travis Swaggerty playing in the American Association, an independent league that’s most significant for having the Kansas City Monarchs, a team named for Jackie Robinson’s negro league team.

Other notable players I could find to play there (that normal people may remember, every time I go I spot a random name I recognize from OOTP like Demetrius Sims) include David Peralta (before he made the big leagues) and Aaron Altherr (after he washed out) where he made an all star team. He’s in his second stint with the league right now.

Always funny to see guys you remember in different leagues b

[u/JackM0429]

tbh i forget casey mize was 2018

[u/overtimeleo]

Alec bohm is probably right as the third best player on the screenshots you provided.

[u/39_Ringo]

Carter Stewart did well last year with Fukuoka, I have no idea what's up with him this year.

[u/Mysterious-Draw2510]

Baseball drafts are the biggest guessing game to me. That’s why I don’t get big coverage because most fans don’t know any of the names and most players don’t turn work out.

[u/Hummer77x]

Bohm is the best high draft pick the Phillies had during this stretch when they were totally ass so it’s fine.

[u/examinedliving]

The real take away here is that Detroit was gonna come out well no matter what

[u/AtBat3]

Bohm has had an up and down career but I don’t know if drafting Hoerner really would’ve changed much for the Phillies

[u/Frog-of-Cosmos]

Had no clue the #255 overall SP would be miles ahead of the #1 SP but here we are (I still love mize)

[u/Steppyjim]

Don’t get me wrong we all want super stars but I’m fine with how Bohm panned out here.