r/dataisbeautiful • u/TA-MajestyPalm • 3d ago
OC [OC] Post-Pandemic Population Growth Trends, by US Metro Area (2022->2024)
Graphic by me, created in Excel. All data from US Census here: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html
I've created similar graphics in the past, but usually from 2020-2024. This is not the best time frame as it combines the abnormal covid years with post pandemic movement.
This time frame (2022-2024) shows the most current and ongoing population trends of the last 2 years.
I also wanted to better categorize the cities into broad cultural regions vs the arbitrary geographic census regions.
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u/IBJON 3d ago
I live in Orlando. It seems that everyone and their mother has moved here in the last few years and the local government is doing fuck all to actually accommodate the growth.
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u/scoofy 3d ago
and the local government is doing fuck all to actually accommodate the growth
They can't and the development pattern is to blame. If you're interested in the the movement trying to fix this shit, check out Strong Towns: https://www.strongtowns.org/
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u/OurNewestMember 3d ago
Can you talk to them about putting a few concrete case studies on the website (brief but compelling ones), and brief descriptions of real policies they are tracking? (Eg, "Appleville, USA Town board just used the slide deck below to pressure state authorities into a more fair highway expansion maintenance funding plan near the town watershed")
Currently the website comes across really vague and bloated which makes it seem like an untrustworthy front (seeming friendly enough, but in a "what is their real agenda?" Kind of way)
This page was more palatable:
https://www.strongtowns.org/about#about3
Not sure if you're actually associated with this or not but your language mirrored the site's ("the development pattern is to blame") so maybe you care about the site's communication, too.
Anyway, interesting idea. Would be good to see what it actually achieves in practice to see if it's a good idea
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u/scoofy 3d ago
They wrote three books on the subject. I’m not affiliated with them but they are a major, growing organization. The stuff they work on is not bumper-sticker simple, that’s the problem. Their most “I know nothing about this” friendly stuff is on YouTube: https://youtube.com/@strongtowns?si=KeCRxZA7QfsWCaxa
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u/m77je 3d ago
If they could add just one more lane to I-4, it would really make a huge difference and get the traffic moving again.
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u/Illiander 3d ago
"You can't fix traffic by adding more lanes. You fix traffic by providing viable alternatives to driving."
Induced demand is a bugger.
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u/lookingweird1729 3d ago
That is a fallacy, When the Triborough Bridge in NYC was created and first opened, the traffic patterns changed, I don't recall what the phenomenon is called. Adding lanes does not solve the problem, A bus or train or density travel ( legit car pooling ) improves traffic flow.
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u/TA-MajestyPalm 3d ago
Required comment:
Graphic by me, created in Excel.
All data from US Census here: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html
I've created similar graphics in the past, but usually from 2020-2024. This is not the best time frame as it combines the abnormal covid years with post-pandemic movement.
This time frame (2022-2024) shows the most current and ongoing population trends of the last 2 years.
I also wanted to better categorize the cities into broad cultural regions vs the arbitrary geographic census regions.
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u/TheLighthammer 3d ago
Wondering how much of the gain in the south and southwest is related to retiring Boomers chasing the sun.
It’s fascinating to see people moving to places that climate change will make utterly miserable. We’re going to see a lot of migration away from those same areas in the not too distant future.
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u/TA-MajestyPalm 3d ago
I found this article which has a nice map. Seems to show younger people moving in similarly heavy amounts
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u/Dragoeth1 3d ago
All of the most popular counties (except the montana ones which have basically noone there at all anyways) are under an hour drive from a major metro area. Pretty much young people trading housing costs for commute time.
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u/AbueloOdin 3d ago
I can definitely attest that the "growth" in Dallas is actually just growth in an open field 50 miles north of Dallas. It'd be like saying there is growth in north Baltimore but it counts for DC.
Also, I do not blame people for getting the fuck out of Pittsburgh. Lovely city. Lovely area. Honestly, super cool. But no EPA means those rivers go back to basically hot orange juice and you get secondhand lung cancer from the factories.
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u/rowzayduckbucky 3d ago
Pittsburgh seems like it’s getting better, but the climate is still awful. Some of the coldest and cloudiest winters in the country
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u/EstablishmentFull797 3d ago
Retirees going to the south/sunbelt are on a one way migration. By the time those regions reach the utterly miserable phase of climate change, they’ll be dead.
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u/Yellowbug2001 3d ago
Curious about whether it's people moving between regions, or people *within* regions moving to the cities. I can think of a lot of reasons why a lot of people in the rural south would be finding their closest city more appealing than bumblefuck in the last few years. But I don't know.
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u/babygotthefever 3d ago
This is a lot of what’s happening in GA. I live in Savannah and have seen tons of people moving from here to the bigger ATL but also plenty moving from bumfuck to SAV or ATL. Most of the time, this is younger working folks because the opportunities don’t exist for them at home.
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u/dalivo 3d ago
It's both. In the South, it's people moving from more expensive northern states (and sometimes the Pacific West) as well as people moving from rural or smaller cities. Often the latter are tradespeople chasing the bigger markets (but they might live in more exurban counties or towns, as it's sort of "rural plus" or as I like to call it, subural).
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u/300Savage 3d ago
I have relatives who have bought condos near Fort Myers Florida who have been hit by hurricanes for three years running now.
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u/RoboTronPrime 3d ago
They don't necessarily believe in climate change and if they do, they figure they're not necessarily going to be around long term to worry about it.
To that effect: "a society grows great when old men plant trees in whose shade they know they shall never sit"
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u/tu-vens-tu-vens 3d ago
People’s revealed preferences over the past 50 years or so have shown preference for warmer weather.
Coastal places like Miami face real challenges. But Raleigh, Nashville, Atlanta, and Austin getting a few degrees hotter isn’t going to dissuade anyone from moving there – not when far hotter places like Phoenix keep on growing and people have been living in far hotter places (Mesopotamia, Egypt) since literally the dawn of civilization.
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u/Composed_Cicada2428 1d ago
Boomers retiring in the south is only a portion of it. It’s primarily because of post-pandemic soaring housing costs everywhere and the south being the cheapest housing. People need a roof over their heads
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u/rowzayduckbucky 3d ago
It will be several decades before the South truly becomes unlivable. I don’t blame them for seeking the sun now
The Great Lakes region is very cold from November-April, unless you love snow I really don’t recommend it
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u/Individual_Macaron69 3d ago
but only like one decade before florida at least becomes totally uninsurable
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u/Snoo23533 3d ago
And trump was president during the 2020 census and its widely known he made several attempts to influence the count.
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u/kit_carlisle 3d ago
Very well thought out graph, lots of data and cool visualizations with the regions.
Even remembered to include the average.
Really neat.
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u/Worried-Ebb8051 3d ago
Love the regional categorization approach!
The Austin vs Miami contrast is striking - both "hot" markets but completely different trajectories. Austin's plateau might reflect the tech correction and remote work normalization, while Miami's continued growth suggests lifestyle migration is more durable than job-driven moves. The Southeast's dominance really reinforces the "no state income tax" migration theory. Would be interesting to see this correlated with housing affordability metrics.
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u/JD_Waterston 3d ago edited 3d ago
I agree that I’ve heard a lot of people discuss income taxes when choosing locations, whereas few discuss property or sales taxes.
To be clear, it still is generally true that the south has a lower tax burden - but the variation is much less pronounced. For instance going from Michigan to Florida likely increases your tax burden - https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/state/tax-burden-by-state-2022/ and the range from 10th to 40th is 9-12% - so most are pretty narrowly aligned, although outliers moving from New York to Alaska would be a profound tax savings.
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u/FoolishChemist 3d ago
Don't forget house insurance costs as well. Michigan you can get it pretty easily, but in Florida, you better just hope a hurricane doesn't blow your house away.
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u/ibled_orange 3d ago
My parents looked into moving from NY to Florida and yes they'd save on income tax but their car insurance expense alone would cause their cost of living to be higher.
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u/davegraham71 3d ago
Also really depends on what income bracket you are in. If I remember correctly I think if you are in like the lower 2/3 (maybe half - old and bad memory) of income then your Texas all in taxes are higher than CA.
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u/JD_Waterston 3d ago
Very true - and a lot of ‘low tax’ states have higher registration and licensure costs. But if you’re making millions, then income taxes play a larger role. Kinda funny that a lot of folks who move also retire, when income plays the smallest role and other taxes the largest.
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u/Wanderingghost12 3d ago
Washington has no income tax and Oregon/Montana have no sales tax, but that doesn't seem to stop it from being super expensive here but both PNW states are far behind the growth of FL/TX
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u/MW_Daught 3d ago
Yes, in theory, tax burden is comparable ... but only for average/median incomes. If you're looking to move for tax reasons in the first place, chances are you have heap of income and for that purpose, states with no income tax are king.
I personally avoided having to pay California around $1.1m in taxes since I relocated to Florida 4 years ago. My property tax is barely $20k or thereabouts, which is almost irrelevant, and sales tax is even less. If I moved to another state that had medium income tax/no property tax or whatnot, the burden would still be substantially higher.
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u/slayer_of_idiots 3d ago
Anecdotally, areas of the south are popular for retirees whose children have all grown up and moved away. You can buy a large property in the south for half of what you can sell a small suburban family house in most popular metropolitan areas.
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u/beenoc 3d ago
North Carolina (#2 and #7) has state income tax, so it's not just that. However, we do have low corporate tax rate and other policies that make us very good for business (and bad for workers), and the Triangle and Charlotte are growing because of jobs.
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u/SaltyShawarma 3d ago
Hot take: lower tax burdens for business negatively affect their workers and their neighborhoods. Lower tax burdens for corpos is actually BAD for business... but good for shareholder profits.
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u/ryan_770 3d ago
The region lines are a bit weird though. Feels odd to include northern Virginia and central Texas in "The South", but not parts of Alabama.
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u/hallese 3d ago
It's only weird because we're used to hand jamming entire states into regions. Nothing better exemplifies the distinct nature of Appalachia from the South than the existence of West Virginia. If you were to look at a light pollution map the boundaries would also make a lot more sense for Appalachia and as you move west from Midwest to Great Plains to Mountain West. When this gets further broken down Maine and New Orleans are often grouped together because of the shared history of the first European groups to settle in both regions.
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u/windershinwishes 3d ago
I agree in general, but the specifics are still a bit off to me. I agree that the northeast corner of Alabama is Appalachian, but I definitely wouldn't describe Birmingham as part of Appalachia rather than part of the South. I mean, it's next to a mountain...but it's more of a glorified hill.
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u/thetanplanman 3d ago
I mean, it changes from "The South" to "The Northeast" on the map right around Fredericksburg which is pretty much where I'd put the line.
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u/Chotibobs 3d ago
Florida and Texas are the only states with no state income tax. North Carolina and Georgia have state income tax.
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u/SuicideNote 3d ago edited 3d ago
What about Raleigh vs Miami. Super hot growth in Raleigh, barely any tower development--takes half decade for a project to get started--if it gets started at all, Miami seemly unlimited tower construction. Yet Raleigh grows like there's no tomorrow. Nashville metro which is smaller than Raleigh still out-performs in this department too.
North Carolina has income tax.
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u/asdf072 3d ago
Ugh. As someone who grew up near Orlando, this new wave of people is the absolute worst. They're trying to escape the crappy conditions of their home town, but just end up dragging it all down here.
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u/rubenthecuban3 3d ago
i've heard this before. true question. can you elaborate what "crappy conditions" they are "dragging it all down here"? like politics? or their outlook or character?
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u/boneydog22 3d ago
Trump flags at the beach is one. They come here thinking we’re all fans and want to see that at the beach??? Their character is as good of quality as the sweatshop fabric used to make their shitty little banners.
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u/Temporary-Light9189 3d ago
That’s what I don’t understand at all, why come here at all if you’re going to try to make it like where you fled from, it’s like people can’t comprehend that they themselves also contribute to the total attitude of the city
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u/theoutlet 3d ago edited 3d ago
It’s funny because here in AZ we have transplants complaining about people moving here from CA wanting to make it like CA
And me, an AZ native with family going back generations, I just laugh. This shitty, “Don’t CA my AZ” isn’t a native position. It’s a transplant position
People move here expecting AZ to be the old west and have the politics to match
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3d ago
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u/AIFlesh 3d ago
Just to be clear - we still think you’re racist bumpkins. It’s just now racist bumpkins from the other parts of the country are moving in to be with like minded folks.
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u/Economy-Ad4934 3d ago
Kinda like when the first american settlers escaped europe due to "religious persecution" but they really just wanted more extreme religion so they booted all the natives in order to create a overly religious country.
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u/flakemasterflake 3d ago
why come here at all if you’re going to try to make it like where you fled from,
Bc they like where they're from (NY) they just can't afford it
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u/Boundaries-ALO-TBSOL 3d ago
ORLANDO IS N.1 LETS GO!
Wait, this is a good thing or a bad thing?
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u/Waste_Molasses_936 3d ago
Depends how do you like paying $500,000 for a house and getting paid $13-$15 an hour?
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u/EnemysGate_Is_Down 3d ago
If you were in your formative years during the 70's/80's, you'd be reaching retirement around this timeframe.
My guess is lots of late stage boomers born in the 50s' and early '60s who grew up with Disney are now retiring there, driving the cost of homes up but not needing to worry about the min wage issue.
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u/forgivemefashion 3d ago
This is the issue! My fiancé and seriously considered moving to Orlando, got pre approved, and took a trip to look at houses…and we could not find high paying jobs to save our life! We ended up staying in Philly/NJ area
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u/elboberto 3d ago
If you want a high paying job here, you need to be an executive in hospitality or the defense industry. That's pretty much it here, outside of the obvious doctor/lawyer/remote tech worker options.
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u/PretzelOptician 3d ago
Both. Economics and demographics are complicated. But much better to be in a high growth area than one with a declining population (Detroit, New Orleans, Milwaukee, etc)
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u/LittleMsSavoirFaire 3d ago
Are people primarily moving to metro areas? Because I live in the purple region and we're getting swarmed with highly paid telecommuters from NoVa and Charlotte. They're like "I get three times the lifestyle here if I'm willing to drive three hours once a week."
It's less than it was in covid but it's still happening
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u/TA-MajestyPalm 3d ago
It's highly variable, and there are certainly some rural areas that are growing, but yes Metro Areas have been growing faster than rural areas
Keep in mind this graphic is only showing the largest metro areas (population over 1 million)
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u/STODracula 3d ago
Most jobs are in metro areas, and for me, commuting even an hour away is too much. Did it until I was in my early 30s and thanks but no thanks.
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u/LittleMsSavoirFaire 3d ago
These are people who are director to vp level. Once a week for a little face time seems to work well for them
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u/gsfgf 3d ago
I live in Atlanta. You can be willing to commute 3 hours round trip and still be in the metro area lol.
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u/LittleMsSavoirFaire 3d ago edited 3d ago
That sounds horrifying lol. A lot of people in DC live in Winchester which is a 90.min commute, but if you want to live a ways down I-81 then it's 3hr one way, but they will get a hotel for the night, maybe do an evening event, have a round of golf or an early meeting with connections the next morning, and then drive home. It's a whole lifestyle really. Face time /= office time.
My small town commute is not even 10 minutes, but I got followed home by a freaking Benz and someone drives a Lotus at my damn gym. They're bougifying the fuck out of this place.
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u/Rarewear_fan 3d ago
Interesting stats that are often divorced by what many Reddit users claim. Go on any board related to moving or where specifically Americans talk about their lives, and many are saying cities like Pittsburgh, Chicago, Detroit, and Cleveland are popping off, tons of people moving there, great places to live now, etc.
Now they have definitely gotten better in the last 10 years so there is truth, but the midwest and Northeast are not really growing anymore. In the South east it has popped off so much that house prices and property tax rates have exploded since COVID. They are stabilizing now, but the main driver for people moving (economic opportunity) has really gone up in the south along with the wealth it brought compared to even the 2000s.
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u/Abefroman12 3d ago
Pittsburgh, Chicago, Detroit, and Cleveland all experienced massive job loss in the 70s, 80s, and 90s. Hundreds of thousands of people moved out of those cities during those decades. That population loss has massively slowed and reversed to a small increase.
For the locals who experienced that huge loss and are now starting to see the turnaround, any growth will seem remarkable. Even if the numbers themselves aren’t large increases.
I grew up in the Cleveland metro area and it’s hard to describe watching businesses, schools, and other institutions shut their doors for years without any “good” news coming in. So a lot of what is being said on Reddit is a big shift in perception of those older Rust Belt cities, which itself is a major win for them.
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u/randynumbergenerator 3d ago
The character of the growth may also be different between regions. Some (probably in the south) may be growing outwards more than upwards, which can be less noticeable. Another subdivision on the outskirts that you never see isn't as noticeable as a new building or formerly vacant storefronts that are now occupied.
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u/Chotibobs 3d ago
Nah the southern cities like Charlotte Miami and Austin are growing upwards big time too
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u/hiplikebrando 3d ago
A nuance of Chicago (and probably a lot of Midwest metros) is that migration is area / neighborhood specific in these metros. In Chicago, lower income neighborhoods are emptying rapidly and “good” neighborhoods have strong growth. So they net out looking at a city level and can even show a net loss in population.
So it’s really a problem of people on Reddit complaining about too many people / lack of available housing, but only trying to pile into the same handful of areas rather than branch out.
For example: Englewood (a low income area) versus Lakeview or Lincoln Park which are two highly desirable areas.
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u/Rarewear_fan 3d ago
I agree with this. My wife and I are from the south and our area has boomed in the last 15 years, making our housing costs more expensive in basically any area of our metro. Even in the spreading out areas that are growing.
If we had great job opportunities in Chicago, we could easily afford housing up there by now, but I would also only be looking at a few areas, otherwise I wouldn't really want to live there.
It really shows that as incomes are rising, more people are taking action to build up/integrate into better neighborhoods, or just migrating out to somewhere more in demand.
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u/Tripod1404 3d ago
Some of this is also related to data being presented as percentages. 1% growth in Chicago metro area with 10M people is not too far off compared 6% growth at Orlando metro with 2.6M people.
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u/fastinserter OC: 1 3d ago
Yeah Raleigh with 5.31% growth is only 79k.
Many cities in the north already had a lot of people. South has more room because people lived where it was comfortable and the south was certainly not comfortable for a long time before AC, so higher growth rates don't necessarily even mean they are gaining more people than the northern cities.
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u/lilelliot 3d ago
I would suspect the Raleigh stats include the entire metro area, which is much more meaningful, and it's not like Durham, Apex, Morrisville, Cary, Holly Springs, Fuquay, Knightdale, Garner, Zebulon, etc haven't also been going gangbusters the past decade.
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u/evergleam498 3d ago
I've been driving through that area once a year for annual beach trip for about a decade now and every single time I'm like 'omg this wasn't here last time! how does this area keep growing?'
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u/Rarewear_fan 3d ago
That's fair. I would also like to see which specific neighborhoods/areas in those cities are seeing the growth....most likely the wealthier areas. That's how it has been in mu city down south.
Another thing is you have more Americans continuing to move to cities from their small towns. If you live in rural Illinois, more and more of those people are leaving for Chicago as the closest city they can get to with actual opportunity.
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u/TA-MajestyPalm 3d ago
Dallas, Houston, and Miami are the 4th, 5th, and 6th largest metro areas in the US, all growing at over double the national rate
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u/ABCosmos OC: 4 3d ago edited 3d ago
There is so much complexity here that people want to sum up in a paragraph. Miami is highly desirable even though it has a high cost of living. Houston is appealing for it's low cost of living. Ultimately both are desired, but by different people for different reasons. This chart tells me DC and Miami are highly in demand, and people are willing to pay $$$ to live there.
Boston and NYC are surprisingly high considering they are "at capacity" and have very high costs of living. They must be in very high demand by people with money as well. (Or people are willing to live in terrible conditions to be there)
Southern cities have more room to expand and lower costs of living because they haven't been historically important cities that already grew, and they aren't currently in demand by the wealthy (Miami is an exception, and I'm sure there are a few others)
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u/CougarForLife 3d ago
I think percentage change was the “correct” way of measuring this, despite people’s criticisms, but I would be curious to see same chart with raw change to compare.
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u/Mohawk4Life 3d ago
Curious if divorced or a leading indicator. Migration is slow and even slower to show up in data.
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u/rowzayduckbucky 3d ago
In the case of Detroit and Pittsburgh it seems like the Downtowns are getting revitalized, which makes it look like the cities are doing well. But the outer areas of these cities are likely becoming emptier than ever. In Detroit some have even become urban forests
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u/shakilops 3d ago
Not even urban areas for Pittsburgh. The core region is pretty steady but a lot of the farther out rural counties are continually hemorrhaging population. Pittsburgh city grew per the last census!
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u/EstablishmentFull797 3d ago
Metro area is different than the city. So for Pittsburgh, the core urban area can be growing and “popping off”while the outlying former mill towns and rural areas that once supported mining jobs continue to depopulate.
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u/99hoglagoons 3d ago
Go on any board related to moving or where specifically Americans talk about their lives, and many are saying cities like Pittsburgh, Chicago, Detroit, and Cleveland
The prompt is always "what is a cheap city that is walkable/urban" and there are not many options to list. Desirable ones are really really expensive.
Likewise nobody is asking "what is a great city with lots of suburbs and endless highways and strip malls and no sidewalks". Just throw a dart at the map.
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u/reggie_veggie 3d ago
Idk about elsewhere but I live in the Texas Triangle (Dallas/ SanAn/ Houston/ Austin) that has had a lot of growth, and this isn't contradictory to me at all. I live here because my family lives here, and my family lives here for employment reasons. there are some things I like, but I wouldn't ever say it is a "great place to live" or tell someone they should move here. moving to Dallas or w/e is what you do when they have job openings in your industry and the average pay is nice compared to the cost of living, and you are willing to trade some quality of life for financial stability
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u/UnsurprisingDebris 3d ago
You are talking about cities and this graphic is talking about metro areas. Also, Pittsburgh has a very old average population.
Pittsburgh is getting a bunch of people moving to the area, but we also have a massive amount of elderly people dying here.
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u/Rarewear_fan 3d ago
I meant metro areas when I said "cities"
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u/UnsurprisingDebris 3d ago
Okay well there is part of the problem. Pittsburgh’s metro area includes a whole bunch of old mill, mining and farming towns that are hemorrhaging population and that in turn would drag down the "growth" of the metro.
I am in no way saying that Pittsburgh is booming by any means, but the data definitely doesn't tell the whole story.
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u/flakemasterflake 3d ago
Pittsburgh, Chicago, Detroit, and Cleveland are popping off,
i mean, cool people are moving there. I'm sure cool people move to Orlando but I haven't met one yet. But I know tons of artists moving to Detroit and Chicago
i assume older people, families and conservatives like Orlando. I do know artsy people that like Miami
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u/ds629 3d ago
Yep yep. Once again, if you take the most upvoted popular hivemind opinion on reddit and then inverse it, you'd be closer to reality and the truth.
"People are leaving Florida in droves" - wrong
"Texas is such a hellhole and they are losing so many people" - wrong
Doesn't even matter if you present them with the Census data (on the topic of population), they'll perform mental gymnastics instead of admitting they're wrong. I live in one of those northern metros, so it's not like I'm even personally invested in this topic.
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u/varzaguy 1d ago
This map is comparing metro areas, not cities. Pittsburgh can still be popping off but the overall metro losing people.
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u/TheManWithTheFlan 18h ago
Clevelander here, even if more people are coming into those cities than before, it could be older populations dying off and making the net gain smaller. There are a lot of large suburbs around here where I swear the average age is 60+.
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u/Grouchy_Concept8572 5h ago
Most of Reddit thinks climate change is going to make the southern states uninhabitable and thinks the northern states are going to be the best places. They have a hate for the south and southwest.
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u/TheLonelySnail 3d ago
Hey! Riverside made the list!
Go us.
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u/thisrockismyboone 1d ago
I consider myself pretty apt at geography and I'm racking my brain. I dont think I've ever heard of Riverside, and if I have, I dont know anything about it.
Looked into it and its 59th most populated city in the US. Mind blown.
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u/albertoshabazz 3d ago
This is a nice graph. I would be interested to see it using only like 18-24 year olds (or a similar age range) to get a sense of where younger people at the start of their journey are choosing to settle.
I wonder if millenials/genX are all about their own individual "experiences", so they move out West where its sunny/outdoorsy and they're like completely liberated away from the control structures back home, and the old silent/boomers of the MidWest/NorthEast are moving where its warm/dying off. So on a total population basis a place like PGH would show stagnation/decline. But for a fresh young person, perhaps cost of living, everyday utility, and a less, shall we say, individualistic environment might be more enticing (so a place like PGH might be more enticing).
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u/TA-MajestyPalm 3d ago
Here's a county level map I made awhile ago (different time frame). Idaho was the fastest growing state
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u/Funkenstein_91 3d ago
Sounds like they won’t be getting cutoff for much longer at that rate of growth.
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u/CubesTheGamer 2d ago
Exciting stuff…a lot of people moving to places at risk of hurricanes and climate change. In 20-30 years everyone is gonna be fleeing migrating back
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u/wolfpack86 3d ago
Raleigh is blowing up and the COL is actually pretty crazy but we still get treated like any other small town in NC for remote work salaries. Rent is legitimately cheaper in Philly.
Also, I had no idea Birmingham was in Appalachia. Even more surprised people want to move there - definitely the worst city I’ve ever been to.
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u/miyamikenyati 3d ago
Interesting graphic, thanks for making it. Also a reminder that Reddit doesn’t equal real life.
And on cue the comments section fills up with people saying “because of climate change these numbers will reverse VERY SOON, and the Sun Belt will start losing population while the Rust Belt booms.”
I’ve been seeing this argument made for 7 or 8 years now (“VERY SOON”) and yet every year the numbers come out and the Sun Belt continues to grow while the Rust Belt continues to decline. It’s like the boy who cries wolf, “VERY SOON” never seems to actually happen.
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u/TA-MajestyPalm 3d ago edited 3d ago
I make a lot of population graphics and at this point can predict what the reddit comments will be based on the data 😂
Reddit hates Texas and Florida
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u/saberplane 1d ago
A lot of this is pointless dick measuring though. We sometimes forget in this country that you can be desirable without needing explosive growth. Some of the nicest European cities for instance are second and third tier compared to their largest brethren and that's ok. Not to mention every city will experience ebs and flows over the years. Some are booming now, then stall or even regress, then others will take over the torch and the cycle goes on. I dont think many people in i.e. Nice, or even Lyon care to ever be a Paris.
Pros come with cons and vice versa.
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u/Vospader998 3d ago edited 3d ago
I know the regions are arbitrary, but I'm going to make my augment because this graphic really aligns with that idea.
There should be a "Great Lakes" region. The cities along the Great Lakes are all culturally, ecologically, geographically, architecturally, and historically similar. This would include (from the list above):
Chicago
Detroit
Cleveland
Milwaukee
Buffalo
Rochester
Pittsburgh * (a railway in the mid-1800s and early 1900s connected Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Rochester, effectively connected Pittsburgh to the region economically and culturally. Though, this could be argued either way, but it is usually included among the "Rust Belt" cities)
These cities all had major populations for essentially the same reason - surrounding a good diversity of resources that could be transported to a shipyard that was connected to the global trade network. The St. Lawrence, and eventually the Erie Canal, connected the Great Lakes to the Atlantic Ocean, and thus connected to global trade. Resources such as timber, coal, iron ore, salt, food crops, animal products, and an abundance of fresh water, all of which were all incredibly important for maintaining large industrial populations.
This abundance of resources, and the connection to global shipping trade, meant these are all prime locations for new factories to import raw materials, export manufactured goods, and sustain large working populations. What became known as "The Steel Belt" was the industrial powerhouse of the United States from the early-1800s to the mid-1900s.
Once industrial factories and jobs started moving overseas, trucking transportation started taking over shipping and rail, and economies started shifting to other areas, the region once known as "The Steel Belt" slowly became known as "The Rust Belt" as factories were closing down and people moved away en mass. Today, all across the Great Lakes you'll see an abundance of abandon buildings in all those cities. The populations stopped depopulating as rapidly, stagnated, and some have even see some growth (though usually minor).
I would argue this shared history, on top of a really similar ecology and climate (dominated by the lakes, making it wet and more temperate), would make it a distinct region that shares more similarities with each other than other, potentially geographically closer cities.
For example, Buffalo is way more similar culturally to Chicago or Detroit than it is to New York City, Boston, or Baltimore. And Chicago is way more similar to Buffalo than it is to St. Louis or Minneapolis.
And looking at the graphic here, it would explain a lot of these cities that have low population growth, but with still relatively high populations.
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u/Naytosan 3d ago
It'd be interesting to see this same chart along with median cost of living and income and property tax rates per state. Might be causation hunting, but it'd still be interesting to see, imo.
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u/DidItForTheJokes 3d ago
Obviously this is for Metro areas so its fine that it doesn't show it but the towns and small cities in Appalachia have had huge population growths
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u/DigitalArbitrage OC: 1 2d ago
I suspect the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area has a higher growth than this. It's just that the actual boundaries of the metro area stretch outside of the old metro area definition now.
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u/DTComposer 2d ago
The Census Bureau definition of DFW metro hasn’t changed since 2013 when Hood County was added.
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u/veringer 3d ago
It blows my mind that so many people--despite knowing the earth is getting hotter and wetter--are flocking to places that are going to be the most severely impacted... like in our lifetimes.
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u/Eudaimonics 2d ago
Most people don’t think about that or are apathetic.
It’s only after they experience their first summer or hurricane that they start to rethink their choices.
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u/ballsonthewall 3d ago
It's interesting how the city of Pittsburgh is growing despite the metro taking a little population loss. I think the trend of the 20th century might be starting to reverse based on climate change, COL, and younger people's desires for more diverse, accessible, and urban communities. The suburban ponzi scheme is clearly up for many of our "middle" suburbs (no hate on Penn Hills but that's a great example), whereas the city is starting to see growth, development, and revitalization in places like Allentown, Uptown, and Garfield.
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u/Equivalent_Dig_5059 3d ago
Pittsburgh is certainly not experiencing rapid growth like these other places though, and definitely not at a rate that’s average to most places. There’s a reason it’s last place on this graph man.
Pittsburgh is known to move slower these days, you can say what you will about the transit and what not, but people don’t take it, people don’t use it, and people don’t develop around it.
Pittsburgh has significant light rail coverage through an area of the city that lacks a freeway. Literally, a progressive urbanist wet dream, a perfect combo, yet, the light rail line has low ridership and, most of the line is surrounded by vast, empty parking lots. Grossly underutilized light rail infrastructure. Huge red flag for the region.
And another point would be that most of the growth is found in the exurb towns of Cranberry/Washington/Monroeville, all have had significant expansions of low rise office parks that are quite full, Southpointe (an exit off 79) has a higher occupancy rate than downtown Pittsburgh.
I don’t know what the solution is but the region is clearly at an impasse with what they want. It’s very telling where development lacks and where effort is put. Pittsburgh could be a very good city with insane location, a high speed rail line to NYC or Philly or DC would make Pittsburgh a viable living location to people in those regions too. But, it seems the state either doesn’t have the money to do it or doesn’t want to. Either way, it shows.
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u/Frodojj 3d ago edited 3d ago
Pittsburgh doesn't have good light rail. It only goes from the stadiums to through Downtown and then south. It doesn't go east or north. It doesn't even branch out. If you're coming from 80% of the area around the city, you need to drive or use a bus. If you want to go to the colleges, libraries, or museums, then you need to switch to a bus. If you want to go to the park or to the colleges, you would need to switch to a bus. If you want to shop at the strip or go to the south side, then you need a bus. These transfers add a lot of time to a trip. Pittsburgh's light rail system is basically just a skeleton with a single bone.
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u/Equivalent_Dig_5059 3d ago edited 3d ago
Right but that’s rather the point, why has there been zero development along the light rail line? There’s “nowhere to go” on the train because nobody builds somewhere to go.
If development is happening at the exurbs, that’s where people want to go. I can go on Google maps right now and throw a dart along the T in Pittsburgh and find a parking lot, that, is of a size that could fit a much higher density urban purpose.
You have the capacity to create urban developments that are pedestrian friendly, and along a high volume transit line, yet, the suburb and exurb office parks are much more popular and experiencing the most investment. It’s clear where the public interest lies or the money at least
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u/FTTG487 3d ago
I get what you’re saying but cities like San Antonio at the top of the list here are also just massive parking spots with no/limited rail options, too. I don’t really think the low ridership is an issue; “The T” itself likely has limited ridership because it only covers the area of the South Hills into the city… the South Hills are one of the wealthier parts of the city/county, on average. If it covered the eastern side of the county, out to Wilkinsburg and beyond I’m sure the ridership would have higher numbers. That being said, Pittsburgh would be perfect for more rail transportation and the death of city trolleys is still one of the greatest misfortunes of the 20th century :(
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u/Equivalent_Dig_5059 3d ago
“If it went to areas that are built up and high density urban already it would do better numbers”
Well yes of course. But that’s also kinda the point. You have potential for extreme volume transit, along a route that has a lot of open land and lots of asphalt usage. It’s being entirely underutilized because of the lack of desire to move there.
In a city that’s growing, every bit of land next to that line would be purchased, and heavily developed. Any neighborhood along the line would have had zoning changes and density changes significantly. The fact that the train is basically what appears to be in the middle of a slowdown and eventual abandonment of service, in an age where it’s “hot” and “trendy” to be a land developer near a transit hub, is a commentary on the city’s health.
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u/SidFarkus47 3d ago
Pittsburgh is the best cross of walkabiltiy and affordability that you can get in the US or Canada. Also it’s very safe and we put French fries on salads.
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u/turb0_encapsulator 3d ago
it's absurd that Los Angeles is near the bottom. Our city leaders represent the interests of a small group of NIMBYs who simply do not want anything built here.
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u/ColonialTransitFan95 3d ago
I saw an interesting theory that places like Texas are growing because they still have space to sprawl out. CA has better weather so it growth happened much early and its run out of space to sprawl. Texas is hot and AC wasn’t as common back in the day (or at all), so it didn’t get a boom tell after it became everywhere (in the US). At some point you run out of places to sprawl (run out of land or simply you are just so far from the city the commute isn’t really possible). Be interesting to see if this plays out for the southeast.
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u/zeroonetw 3d ago
With enough sprawl density naturally forms. The Texas cities’ cores are rapidly densifying. Also multimodal commercial centers have formed as well so you end up with a diffused network. Commute times are better in the Texas cities than the big coastal ones.
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u/YeOldeWelshman 3d ago
Wild to see the South exploding in population, meanwhile I'm trying to get out of this humid festering shithole. I guess it's a different experience when you have a decent income.
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u/the__storm 3d ago
It's crazy to me as well - do all these people never go outside? I know cost of living can be lower down there but yeesh, at what cost
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u/VillageOfMalo 3d ago
Maybe I'm not looking closely enough but: where's New Orleans?
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u/TA-MajestyPalm 3d ago
New Orleans metro area recently fell below 1 million people, so it is not shown here
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u/EwwYuck 3d ago
Given the geographical upticks, I'm genuinely curious if they are back-fill attributable to deaths as a direct result of Covid-19, if the metro areas are expanding out, or if they are expanding up.
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u/attckdog 3d ago
I want to live in the middle of no where and work on my game project off the grid.
Cities get fucked in collapses. The farther into the woods the better.
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u/papertowelroll17 3d ago
A nit but 2022 and 2024 are both just estimates. A delta between them is not necessarily growth or decline, it can just be the estimate being revised.
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u/micron970 3d ago
Why are so many people moving to Florida? Is it just old people?
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u/Lycid 3d ago
Cheap, warm weather, all the amenities you could want out of a highly developed area, friendly to suburbanites leaving their dreary northern suburbs, if you want night life and the vibe of NYC, Miami is right there, disney world is self explanatory, all the beaches are right there, etc.
If you remove the long term doom of the entire state Florida looks awfully appealing to move to if you're living in an Ohio suburb or wherever. It's basically been a vacation destination for 100 years and unlike most vacation destinations on earth it hasn't suffered a massive cost of living burden (yet).
Yes it's all a climate change house of cards, the people suck, the politics suck, the humidity sucks, the bugs suck, but if all you really care about is maintaining you exact standard of living but with much better weather (outside of hurricanes) and easy weekend vacation opportunities it checks the box. Besides Florida being underwater is a problem at the end of this century. Still got a whole life before that starts actually becoming a problem and by that time people will have long moved away.
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u/Eudaimonics 2d ago
There’s a record number of wealthy retirees who are sick of winter and sold themselves on the notion of a paradise.
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u/SerendipitySue 3d ago
though it is tiny increase... i am glad to see detroit growing. to me it was basically devastated in many ways when the jobs left. i expected it to fall into a gary,indiana situation. some much of it looked like a dystopian war zone last time i visited years ago. reallly bad.
slowly but steadily they are rehabbing housing stock, doing things to get people to be homeowners again. i am hopeful for detroit!
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u/Gabemiami 3d ago
Ever since Covid, what took 15 minutes to get somewhere by car, now takes 30-45 minutes…and more are coming. Please, no more!
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u/aznrandom 3d ago
Interesting that the Southwest is very susceptible to climate change through floods, hurricanes and overall rising sea level.
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u/strps 3d ago
Being in San Diego we experienced a massive influx of people during the initial phase of the pandemic. Lot's of people moved here thinking they were never going to have to report to work in person again...and though many have since returned to the office the housing market still has not recovered from all the well to do speculators.
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u/Suitable_Blood_2 3d ago
Why do you have the South colored red when all its cities you list are green? Makes yr graphic hard to decrypt.
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u/Maxcrss 3d ago
Is Dallas including Fort Worth? Because if that’s the case, shit graph. If it’s not the case, shit graph, Fort Worth is outpacing Dallas iirc.
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u/yourdailyorwell 2d ago
A lot of cities in DFW are out pacing Dallas proper. Dallas permitting has been sub bar and during covid was atrocious. The city has gotten its act together and is moving in the right direction with all sorts of reforms to start encouraging infill development.
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u/DTComposer 2d ago
The Census Bureau considers Dallas-Fort Worth as one metropolitan area, so they’re combined on this graph.
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u/87chargeleft 2d ago
What's your source for the filtration regions?
My very anecdotal experience has me looking at that very suspect. I can promise you, NE Wyoming has more in common with Colorado in general attitude and behavior than Oklahoma. I'd love to read how those boundaries were chosen.
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u/TheThirdBrainLives 2d ago
Utah has been the fastest growing state in the country over the past 15 years. This is no surprise.
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u/bigfathairymarmot 3h ago
I think I might change the title, 2022 isn't really post pandemic, in fact since the pandemic hasn't ended we right now are not post pandemic. Maybe post health emergency or something like that might be more accurate, but post pandemic is not accurate.
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u/Waste_Molasses_936 3d ago
No wonder I-4 has gone from bad to abysmal since 2020. What used to take 1.5 hours from Tampa to Orland for the last 30 years is now: 1.5 hours to ???? at any time of day