r/dataisbeautiful • u/TA-MajestyPalm • 4d ago

OC [OC] Post-Pandemic Population Growth Trends, by US Metro Area (2022->2024)

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Graphic by me, created in Excel. All data from US Census here: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html

I've created similar graphics in the past, but usually from 2020-2024. This is not the best time frame as it combines the abnormal covid years with post pandemic movement.

This time frame (2022-2024) shows the most current and ongoing population trends of the last 2 years.

I also wanted to better categorize the cities into broad cultural regions vs the arbitrary geographic census regions.

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u/Waste_Molasses_936 3d ago

No wonder I-4 has gone from bad to abysmal since 2020. What used to take 1.5 hours from Tampa to Orland for the last 30 years is now: 1.5 hours to ???? at any time of day

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u/scoofy 3d ago edited 3d ago

Fun fact. Highways have a finite capacity. Once they hit that capacity, the become exponentially worse with each additional automobile on the road, and they're effectively impossible to increase in capacity over time. It's like filling a bathtub faster than it can drain: once the water starts spilling over the side there's basically nothing you can do to stop it, and all the extra water is a problem.

We built all these highways one or two generations ago, and they were smart enough to build them all with tons of excess capacity built in -- enough to last a lifetime. Welp, now it's been a lifetime, and they're failing. Cars are much more efficient in the short run, when there's lots of greenfield construction going on, but once you hit the highway capacity in your city at peak times, it's much for efficient to switch to a high density, variable scale, from of public transit (trains, trams, BRT, etc.) simply because they will always have excess capacity to fill.

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u/AskMeAboutOkapis 3d ago

Another fun fact: traffic speeds will generally decrease until they reach the speed of the next fastest alternative. And if there is no viable alternative or the alternative is also stuck in the same traffic, they will just keep getting slower and slower.

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u/scoofy 3d ago

I mean, the irony is that a single lane of highway converted to BRT would mostly solve these problems. The main issue is that the development pattern of automobiles is effectively at odds with high density transit. So unless you're going to rebuild your urban core, and build a BRT station in the center of a residential neighborhood, it's just not going to happen.

Path dependency in democratic systems is an absolute self-own most of the time.

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u/AskMeAboutOkapis 3d ago

I've long thought creating a bunch of bus lanes would be the cheapest way to make transit more reliable and improve traffic. But buses are boring compared to trains and people don't like to see empty lanes next to them during traffic even if that lane is carrying more people. Some cities are doing it though.

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u/Illiander 3d ago

Buses just aren't as effective as trains is the thing. Mostly because they inevitably get forced to use the same roads as cars, which makes them get stuck in traffic.

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u/Cleromanticon 3d ago

Where I live, Republicans literally made light rail illegal so buses are what we’ve got to work with.

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u/AskMeAboutOkapis 3d ago

I'm not anti-trains at all, I love trains and ideally they would form the core part of all cities public transit networks with bus lines branching out from there. However in North America they have been very expensive and time consuming to build. In the long term they are absolutely worthwhile investments (especially if we can figure out how to build them for less like every other part of the world). But in the short term, building dedicated bus lanes is cheap and fast and can help solve problems that are happening right now.

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u/UnintensifiedFa 19h ago

The thing about buses is that they’re easy. Don’t require dedicated stations, can go anywhere in a city, and you can cordon off bus lanes pretty easy.

I would love a train network that’s sprawling and elaborate and can go where I need, but you’ve gotta start somewhere and buses sound great with all the traffic.

Plus buses and trains can work together quite nicely for long/short distance interchange.

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u/Serious_Senator 3d ago

Do you have a study you can recommend on this? Interesting concept

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u/scoofy 2d ago

Transit Cooperative Research Program. Report 90. Bus Rapid Transit

Volume 1: Case Studies in Bus Rapid Transit (PDF)

The case studies summarized here demonstrate that BRT does work. It can attract new riders and induce transit-oriented development. It can be more cost-effective and provide greater operating flexibility than rail transit. BRT also can be a cost-effective extension of rail transit lines. Generally, BRT systems can provide sufficient capacity to meet peak-hour travel demands in most U.S. corridors.

One of the key lessons learned from the case studies is that BRT should be rapid. Reliably high speeds can be best achieved when a large portion of the service operates on separate rights-of-way. In addition, any major BRT investment should be reinforced by transit-supportive land development and parking policies.

It is expected that more cities will examine and implement BRT systems. There will be a growing number of fully integrated systems and even more examples of selected BRT elements being implemented. These efforts will lead to substantial improvements in urban transit access, mobility, and quality of life.

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u/elboberto 3d ago

The solution is bringing jobs, schools, and shopping to the places closer to where people live so they don't have to get on the highway for everything. But we don't do that in Florida.

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u/ObvMann 3d ago

But I wanna love in the exurbs!!! Run more water, sewer, gas, electric, and every fuckin thing else another 7 miles to my home from my closest neighbor! 

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u/SmokingLimone 1d ago edited 1d ago

But I thought that one more lane would fix my highway's congestion issues, that can't be true! Surely a 10 lane highway will fix any traffic

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u/FloridaGatorMan 3d ago

I moved to Colorado from Florida 10 years ago and was really frustrated how often I had to sit in traffic to get anywhere. Then I visited family in Orlando and felt much better about the traffic here, haha. It's still terrible here but I drove to MCO at 7 am on a Sunday and was sitting in traffic. Exact same thing that happened when I was driving to LAX Sunday morning years ago. It really is rough there.

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u/Waste_Molasses_936 3d ago

The worst part is when things used to suck it was predictably sucky most of the time, so baring something unusually bad - you could plan for the suck. Now the suck is unpredictable and there's no way to deal with it. 

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u/Calvin--Hobbes 3d ago

The thing I always hated about Denver traffic is how unpredictable it could be. It could be 2am and for some reason traffic would be at a complete dead stop on the interstate randomly.

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u/FloridaGatorMan 3d ago

Haha yup. I had to get out the door at 4 am one morning and still had a 25 min slowdown

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u/ObvMann 3d ago

Of only the car wasn’t your only option

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u/IBJON 3d ago

It doesn't help that they can't seem to figure out that section between sand lake and Disney. It doesn't matter what time of day it is, it's always backed up for miles for seemingly no reason.

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u/elboberto 3d ago

No reason? The reason is 100,000 people moved out there to the middle of nowhere and their only path to civilization is I-4. Going to work? I-4. Groceries? I-4. Visiting friends? I-4. Taking kids to school? I-4.

Poor planning and no infrastructure.

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u/RedNuii 2d ago

Just add a couple more lanes, I’m sure that will fix it

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u/IBJON 3d ago

This isn't the middle of nowhere. This is a stretch of highway between Disney and Universal. Traffic moves pretty smoothly elsewhere in I4, assuming there're no accidents, but as soon as you hit this particular stretch, it just comes to a standstill.

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u/elboberto 3d ago

That’s the spot where 528 merges onto i4.

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u/Ooficus 3d ago

between 27 and sand lake at this point

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u/capt_jazz 3d ago

Remember, when in doubt the reason for traffic is lack of public transit, bike infrastructure, and side walks, as well as terrible car-centric urban planning.

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u/Nailcannon 3d ago

I realize you don't understand the layout of orlando to be making this claim. Both Universal and disney have a direct incentive to not improve infrastructure between them because you want to keep people in your walled garden. Beyond that, we already have lynx bus routes that go all over the area. 302 and 303 will get you from universal to disney. Granted, those take I4. if you want to avoid I4, routes 38 to 350 will do the same. The only hope for rail would be to run it along I4. But again, who's going to pay for it? Neither of the parks want it. And then who's going to use it? How many families coming to Orlando have the luxury of going to both universal and disney? The vast vast majority choose one or the other. A huge amount of the traffic on that section is because there is a metric fuck ton of hotels on international drive just south of universal, and many of those people are families who wanted to go to disney but either didnt want to pay disney hotel prices or wanted to stay somewhere more central to the action, where disney is a bit out of the way.

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u/[deleted] 2d ago edited 2d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/capt_jazz 2d ago

Yeah 100%, the last point makes the first several points nearly impossible to implement

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u/IBJON 3d ago

I get the point you're making and normally, I'd agree, but this is major highway we're talking about and it's an issue of poor engineering and a huge number of tourists on the road. Nobody is going to ride their bike from Universal Studios to Disney World, and trains only get you in the general area, so wouldn't really solve transportation issues around therr

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u/Illiander 3d ago

this is major highway we're talking about

A two-lane train line will beat it in people moved without even trying.

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u/IBJON 3d ago edited 3d ago

That's great, but I was disputing the biking and walkability. I don't think anyone is doubting that a train would probably be better, at least for moving people up and down the I4 corridor, but then you still have the issue of moving people around once they're off the train. 

Biking and walking aren't really a viable option when it's 90+ degrees with high humidity. Most people can't handle that kind of heat, especially tourists who aren't used to it

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u/Illiander 3d ago

Fair. Intercity isn't the place for biking and walking.

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u/IBJON 3d ago edited 3d ago

Dude. Look at a damn map. This isn't "Intercity". This isn't downtown Orlando, or Chicago, or any other major densely populated city. The Greater Orlando area is very spread out, which is crux or the issue.

This is a specific stretch of highway between two major tourist destinations. There's stuff there, but this isn't a case of people just heading to the store down the block or work 3 streets over. If you're passing through here regularly, you're probably traveling a lot further than would be reasonable in bike or foot.

A train would be great for bypassing this area or navigating up and down I4, but most people don't live or work near I4, so it's not so simple as "build a trai". It's "build a train and massive public transit infrastructure over a huge area". 

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u/capt_jazz 3d ago

Pretty sure they meant intracity

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u/Illiander 3d ago

The Greater Orlando area is very spread out

Oh, so you need more local centers then, and less suburban desert.

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u/goteamnick 3d ago

Are all the cars on the road going exclusively from Universal Studios to Disney World? Or are some of them going a shorter, bikeable distance?

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u/Nailcannon 3d ago

Why they ended the express lane at universal is a mystery to me. Imagine it ended in the north right before downtown. It should at least clear Disney.

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u/IBJON 3d ago

They also inexplicabllack entrances for the entire stretch from Maitland all the way to SoDo.