r/dataisbeautiful • u/TA-MajestyPalm • 4d ago

OC [OC] Post-Pandemic Population Growth Trends, by US Metro Area (2022->2024)

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Graphic by me, created in Excel. All data from US Census here: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html

I've created similar graphics in the past, but usually from 2020-2024. This is not the best time frame as it combines the abnormal covid years with post pandemic movement.

This time frame (2022-2024) shows the most current and ongoing population trends of the last 2 years.

I also wanted to better categorize the cities into broad cultural regions vs the arbitrary geographic census regions.

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u/Worried-Ebb8051 4d ago

Love the regional categorization approach!

The Austin vs Miami contrast is striking - both "hot" markets but completely different trajectories. Austin's plateau might reflect the tech correction and remote work normalization, while Miami's continued growth suggests lifestyle migration is more durable than job-driven moves. The Southeast's dominance really reinforces the "no state income tax" migration theory. Would be interesting to see this correlated with housing affordability metrics.

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u/JD_Waterston 3d ago edited 3d ago

I agree that I’ve heard a lot of people discuss income taxes when choosing locations, whereas few discuss property or sales taxes.

To be clear, it still is generally true that the south has a lower tax burden - but the variation is much less pronounced. For instance going from Michigan to Florida likely increases your tax burden - https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/state/tax-burden-by-state-2022/ and the range from 10th to 40th is 9-12% - so most are pretty narrowly aligned, although outliers moving from New York to Alaska would be a profound tax savings.

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u/davegraham71 3d ago

Also really depends on what income bracket you are in. If I remember correctly I think if you are in like the lower 2/3 (maybe half - old and bad memory) of income then your Texas all in taxes are higher than CA.

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u/JD_Waterston 3d ago

Very true - and a lot of ‘low tax’ states have higher registration and licensure costs. But if you’re making millions, then income taxes play a larger role. Kinda funny that a lot of folks who move also retire, when income plays the smallest role and other taxes the largest.

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u/gsfgf 3d ago

and a lot of ‘low tax’ states have higher registration and licensure costs

Yea. When 2008 hit, and Georgia ran out of reserves, we couldn't "raise taxes" or else Grover Norquist would get mad. So we raised "fees" instead.