[OC] Post-Pandemic Population Growth Trends, by US Metro Area (2022->2024)

[u/TA-MajestyPalm]

Graphic by me, created in Excel. All data from US Census here: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html

I've created similar graphics in the past, but usually from 2020-2024. This is not the best time frame as it combines the abnormal covid years with post pandemic movement.

This time frame (2022-2024) shows the most current and ongoing population trends of the last 2 years.

I also wanted to better categorize the cities into broad cultural regions vs the arbitrary geographic census regions.

[u/Worried-Ebb8051]

Love the regional categorization approach!

The Austin vs Miami contrast is striking - both "hot" markets but completely different trajectories. Austin's plateau might reflect the tech correction and remote work normalization, while Miami's continued growth suggests lifestyle migration is more durable than job-driven moves. The Southeast's dominance really reinforces the "no state income tax" migration theory. Would be interesting to see this correlated with housing affordability metrics.

[u/JD_Waterston → u/Worried-Ebb8051]

I agree that I’ve heard a lot of people discuss income taxes when choosing locations, whereas few discuss property or sales taxes.

To be clear, it still is generally true that the south has a lower tax burden - but the variation is much less pronounced. For instance going from Michigan to Florida likely increases your tax burden - https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/state/tax-burden-by-state-2022/ and the range from 10th to 40th is 9-12% - so most are pretty narrowly aligned, although outliers moving from New York to Alaska would be a profound tax savings.

[u/gsfgf → u/JD_Waterston]

Yea. I'm in Atlanta. I assume that if the stage GOP actually does eliminate the state income tax, I'll end up paying more. APS will have to raise property taxes to offset cuts from the state.