[OC] Post-Pandemic Population Growth Trends, by US Metro Area (2022->2024)

[u/TA-MajestyPalm]

Graphic by me, created in Excel. All data from US Census here: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html

I've created similar graphics in the past, but usually from 2020-2024. This is not the best time frame as it combines the abnormal covid years with post pandemic movement.

This time frame (2022-2024) shows the most current and ongoing population trends of the last 2 years.

I also wanted to better categorize the cities into broad cultural regions vs the arbitrary geographic census regions.

[u/scoofy]

Fun fact. Highways have a finite capacity. Once they hit that capacity, the become exponentially worse with each additional automobile on the road, and they're effectively impossible to increase in capacity over time. It's like filling a bathtub faster than it can drain: once the water starts spilling over the side there's basically nothing you can do to stop it, and all the extra water is a problem.

We built all these highways one or two generations ago, and they were smart enough to build them all with tons of excess capacity built in -- enough to last a lifetime. Welp, now it's been a lifetime, and they're failing. Cars are much more efficient in the short run, when there's lots of greenfield construction going on, but once you hit the highway capacity in your city at peak times, it's much for efficient to switch to a high density, variable scale, from of public transit (trains, trams, BRT, etc.) simply because they will always have excess capacity to fill.

[u/AskMeAboutOkapis → u/scoofy]

Another fun fact: traffic speeds will generally decrease until they reach the speed of the next fastest alternative. And if there is no viable alternative or the alternative is also stuck in the same traffic, they will just keep getting slower and slower.

[u/scoofy → u/AskMeAboutOkapis]

I mean, the irony is that a single lane of highway converted to BRT would mostly solve these problems. The main issue is that the development pattern of automobiles is effectively at odds with high density transit. So unless you're going to rebuild your urban core, and build a BRT station in the center of a residential neighborhood, it's just not going to happen.

Path dependency in democratic systems is an absolute self-own most of the time.

[u/AskMeAboutOkapis → u/scoofy]

I've long thought creating a bunch of bus lanes would be the cheapest way to make transit more reliable and improve traffic. But buses are boring compared to trains and people don't like to see empty lanes next to them during traffic even if that lane is carrying more people. Some cities are doing it though.

[u/Illiander → u/AskMeAboutOkapis]

Buses just aren't as effective as trains is the thing. Mostly because they inevitably get forced to use the same roads as cars, which makes them get stuck in traffic.

[u/Cleromanticon → u/Illiander]

Where I live, Republicans literally made light rail illegal so buses are what we’ve got to work with.

[u/AskMeAboutOkapis → u/Illiander]

I'm not anti-trains at all, I love trains and ideally they would form the core part of all cities public transit networks with bus lines branching out from there. However in North America they have been very expensive and time consuming to build. In the long term they are absolutely worthwhile investments (especially if we can figure out how to build them for less like every other part of the world). But in the short term, building dedicated bus lanes is cheap and fast and can help solve problems that are happening right now.

[u/UnintensifiedFa → u/Illiander]

The thing about buses is that they’re easy. Don’t require dedicated stations, can go anywhere in a city, and you can cordon off bus lanes pretty easy.

I would love a train network that’s sprawling and elaborate and can go where I need, but you’ve gotta start somewhere and buses sound great with all the traffic.

Plus buses and trains can work together quite nicely for long/short distance interchange.

[u/Serious_Senator → u/scoofy]

Do you have a study you can recommend on this? Interesting concept

[u/scoofy → u/Serious_Senator]

Transit Cooperative Research Program. Report 90. Bus Rapid Transit

Volume 1: Case Studies in Bus Rapid Transit (PDF)

The case studies summarized here demonstrate that BRT does work. It can attract new riders and induce transit-oriented development. It can be more cost-effective and provide greater operating flexibility than rail transit. BRT also can be a cost-effective extension of rail transit lines. Generally, BRT systems can provide sufficient capacity to meet peak-hour travel demands in most U.S. corridors.

One of the key lessons learned from the case studies is that BRT should be rapid. Reliably high speeds can be best achieved when a large portion of the service operates on separate rights-of-way. In addition, any major BRT investment should be reinforced by transit-supportive land development and parking policies.

It is expected that more cities will examine and implement BRT systems. There will be a growing number of fully integrated systems and even more examples of selected BRT elements being implemented. These efforts will lead to substantial improvements in urban transit access, mobility, and quality of life.

[u/elboberto → u/scoofy]

The solution is bringing jobs, schools, and shopping to the places closer to where people live so they don't have to get on the highway for everything. But we don't do that in Florida.

[u/ObvMann → u/elboberto]

But I wanna love in the exurbs!!! Run more water, sewer, gas, electric, and every fuckin thing else another 7 miles to my home from my closest neighbor! 

[u/SmokingLimone → u/scoofy]

But I thought that one more lane would fix my highway's congestion issues, that can't be true! Surely a 10 lane highway will fix any traffic