r/europe Jun 01 '25

Data Polish Presidential Elections exit poll

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12.2k Upvotes

1.2k comments sorted by

1.6k

u/Kubula Jun 01 '25

That is a record attendance for presidential elections in Polish history

527

u/Benj_FR Jun 01 '25

That's official ? Good sign.

Congrats anyway.

I wish you the best from France.

145

u/Deadluss Mazovia (Poland) Jun 01 '25

yea that's quite official because every voting station has to count attendance every couple of hours

6

u/Ewoczkowy Jun 01 '25

Yes but they only count at 12:00 and 17:00 the final attendance is not yet announced, but it's almost impossible for it to not be the record

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156

u/dumnezero Earth Jun 01 '25

That's usually a sign that the far right loses.

84

u/Alakagom Jun 01 '25

Weird comment when the difference is 0.6%, even less in the second exit poll.

41

u/Technical-Incident80 Jun 01 '25

Higher turnout is usually good for the candidate that isn't anti establishment.

17

u/cooleslaw01 Jun 01 '25

actually it's usually beneficial for the more moderate candidate in my experience. which is to say that a lower turnout might've cost him the election

150

u/michalsqi Poland Jun 01 '25

But it is so f…ing close. I’m nervous.

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u/A-6_Intr-uwu-der Estonia Jun 01 '25

Won‘t be for long. We are nearing the end of the stage where the far right is half the population.

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u/[deleted] Jun 01 '25

Indeed.

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4.8k

u/budapestersalat Jun 01 '25

Too close to call, unfortunately 

1.8k

u/LegendarniKakiBaki Jun 01 '25

Even if this was the final result, it would be a problematic one.

2.0k

u/veevoir Europe Jun 01 '25

Any result that is not a Nawrocki win will be soon "problematic", the right already laid a lot of groundwork into convincing their voters that either they win - or election are stolen. They will pull the US trick.

379

u/Karlsefni1 Italy Jun 01 '25

I’m sick of this playbook. There should be serious consequences if you accuse of stealing an election once proven wrong

108

u/Necrophilicgorilla Jun 01 '25

I agree. This bullshit shouldn't be taken lightly

53

u/TightManPuhsey Jun 01 '25

Slippery slope for actualy stolen elections imo

59

u/WitAndWonder Jun 01 '25

I assume that's where the burden of proof comes in.

9

u/Beginning_Prior7892 Jun 01 '25

A tyrannical of government always has enough “burden of proof” lmao

12

u/frotnoslot Jun 01 '25

That’s the next part of the strategy. If you accuse your opponent of something, then when you do it you’re just playing according to the new “rules of the game” you just arbitrarily defined.

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u/Glavurdan Montenegro Jun 01 '25

Sadly it's a win-win strategy.

Either they win or they say elections are stolen

433

u/helm Sweden Jun 01 '25

The sacrifice is democracy and trust in institutions.

306

u/thedefenses Jun 01 '25

Lucky for them, they don't care about either.

27

u/Zalack Jun 01 '25

As an American, my perception was that Europe was way better inoculated against this kind of bullshit. Crazy to see a comment thread that could have easily been about our last few elections across the pond.

42

u/ibuprophane United Kingdom Jun 01 '25

Populism is a global trend.

Everything thanks to internet spreads like wildfire.

Sometimes it helps, most of the time it harms, because people have the attention span of a horsefly and don’t care to learn History beyond 15sec tiktok videos.

7

u/Classic-Progress-397 Jun 02 '25

It's not the internet, it's wealth consolidation under a handful of sociopaths, who have decided to ruin the world.

UNTIL WE TAX THESE MFRS, the right will continue to win. They buy every election around the globe at this point.

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u/hesh582 Jun 02 '25

For a very long time political scientists used to say that America was inoculated against this "very European" political disease.

This isn't new and it defined the 20th century for much of Europe. The US is just properly discovering it for the first time and reexporting it back across the pond.

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u/DemoN_M4U Jun 01 '25

They don’t care.

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u/helm Sweden Jun 01 '25

Oh, they do, it’s a bonus

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u/sebixi Jun 01 '25

They tried this in Romania too, but the results were way too obvious here to try to pull off any of that shit. My thoughts are with my polish brothers and sisters tonight <3

86

u/Nerioner The Netherlands Jun 01 '25

Well now real job only begins in Romania and Poland. Because if we do nothing, in next elections it is a clean sweep for far right.

We need to counterbalance them at the very least and push back ideally

47

u/Jackmerious Jun 01 '25

That’s why they need to get into office and implement some real reforms that actually matter to people. Things that will help them. Don’t waste time on nonsense. Do so much good that it won’t matter what the Fascists say.

8

u/GolemancerVekk 🇪🇺 🇷🇴 Jun 01 '25

Yeah the problem is that reform hurts and it's easy to twist it as "see what those mean guys are doing to you".

But what really gets on my tits is when the party that ruined the economy, and still got the most seats in Parliament somehow, decide to go into opposition for the duration of the reform so they aren't the bad guy.

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u/ieatcavemen United Kingdom Jun 01 '25

How did that work out for Biden? Good governance and actions to benefit the populace have no effect on a radicalised population that is inoculated from hearing any positive news about anyone who isn't a fascist.

17

u/Jackmerious Jun 01 '25

I think the problem with what happened over here was that the positive economic improvements made during his administration were overshadowed by reports of his mental fitness, and it wasn’t helped by the media, or by our absolutely lazy ass voting populace who stayed home because “both sides are the same!” I’m honestly not sure how the Polish or Romanian media handle fascist politicians there.

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u/sebixi Jun 01 '25

For sure, and I think if anyone can be the reformist doing the 'real work' needed to be done, it is Nicusor and hopefully a lot of the young people the voted for him. It is however right because besides the far-right you are also fighting the dinosaur political establishment in the PSD and some elements of the PNL which is are harmful and toxic forces in romanian society. This is coming from a person with leftist values. Our left is garbage and sadly we don't have a real progressive/left political force in Romania :(

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u/gesocks Jun 01 '25

Problem is in Poland they still controll the courts that decide about it. So even if it's clear, they can pull it off..

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u/alansmithofficiall Jun 01 '25

convincing their voters that either they win - or election are stolen.

Christ. Are we really going down this path where the right just lie their asses off about fucking everything and a shit load of people just believe them.

41

u/BelgijskaFlaga Jun 01 '25 edited Jun 01 '25

yes. Unless lying in a political context is punished- And I mean actually punished, with fines (progressive, and big enough to dent in even the finances of the entire political party that stands behind the politician/candidate caught lying, and if they won't stop then hitting them with further, bigger, fines, big enough to bankrupt them and all their supporters, and if they just keep doing it anyway then with even further, even bigger fines, big enough to bankrupt even the billionaires supporting them) being stripped of the right to candidate in elections for X number of years, being stripped of the parliamentary immunity, (if the politician caught lying was a parliament/senate member) and potentially even prison if the lie was exceptionally egregious/they just kept repeating it through the fines etc. And not just with a slap on the wrist and moral condemnation from mainstream media like what happens today when rightoids and fascists spread 2137th lie this week. Then lying is OP, and there is no negative cost of doing it, and therefore no point in NOT doing it, because in the current age of online media, you can sell anything and everything to most people if you just keep repeating the lies often and loudly enough.

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u/Oberst_Kawaii Europe Jun 01 '25

I'm sorry but that means democracy is already cooked. The right has simply abandoned it.

Every single right-wing populist party needs to be banned just outright at this point.

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u/Machine__Learning Jun 01 '25

The same thing happened in Romania when the far right candidate lost

28

u/Tankette55 Jun 01 '25

He did get shut dowj immediately though

46

u/RayphistJn Jun 01 '25

Not really,he's still at it . Keeps barking all over the internet the elected president is not legitimate. The guy is a form of scum other scum learn from

4

u/Mykytagnosis Jun 01 '25

Russian money gives him energy to persevere and write those posts

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u/Rumlings Poland Jun 01 '25

PiS have been doing it entire day.

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u/iCollectApple RO -> NL -> AT Jun 01 '25

Oh wow, it really shows he's friends with Simion.

52

u/youngfartsmella Romania Jun 01 '25

happened in Romania, it will happen in Poland too. Simion and Nawrocki will say France, or whoever, rigged the election

50

u/freshtoxick Jun 01 '25

I can't wait to hear how George Soros and Ursula screwed up this election. God, Europe can't escape this narrative that is invented by Russia.

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u/the_TIGEEER Slovenia Jun 01 '25 edited Jun 01 '25

And THAT. Ladies and gentelment. Is exactly. Why I hated Trump since 2020 and why I spamed about him on my instagram stories. I don't care about a singleee of his economic polecies the fact that he refused to accept election results and didn't get his career destroyed is insane and a problem for all of us. People would say shit like "haha.. Americans are so dumb for having a Trump in their poletics"... I said since day 1.. Trump will echo into Europe. With Trumps sucess European idiots like him will atempt the same playbook. That is why an American president not accepting the results of an election was so insanly bad for all of the free world.

I got downvoted in European subs when I kept saying in 2020 that: like it or not the USA is the leader of the free world and if their democracy starts to faulter that will echo into Europe.

Trump is not Julius Caesar of the USA and it's allies. He is the people who came before him and enabled him. The Julius Caesar of the free world is still to come. Someone smarter then him and with an even bigger disregard for our institutions for his personal gain. But absolutly enabled by Dobald Trump and his voters.

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u/geotech03 Poland Jun 01 '25

I hear this shit every elections and somehow it is never like that

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u/Username1213141 RO | United States of Europe Jun 01 '25

literally what happened in Romania lmao

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u/Other_Class1906 Jun 01 '25

too close for comfort... for any reason...

23

u/justanearthling Jun 01 '25 edited Jun 01 '25

Exit polls in Polish history were always correct who won. This would be first time.

Edit. Actually it did happen once before back in 1995. Sorry.

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u/Chmuurkaa_ Jun 01 '25

About to be second then cuz Trzaskowski dropped to 49.3%

So no matter who wins, one of those exit polls was wrong

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u/skalpelis Latvia Jun 01 '25

Why the fuck is it always so fucking close? 50% for puppies and rainbows, and 50% voting for a diarrhoea with glass shards.

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u/SparklingWaterFall Jun 01 '25

Are we winning son ?

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1.2k

u/TheMidnightBear Romania Jun 01 '25

When will we get the results?

1.0k

u/Karls0 Europe Jun 01 '25

At 23:00 will be more precise Late Poll. Exit poll can have up to 2% difference per candidate. So at this point we know nothing. Official results probably tomorrow, but hard to say exact hour.

218

u/Kresnik2002 Michigan (United States) Jun 01 '25

What’s the margin of error for the 23:00 exit poll? Because even at 1% or 0.5%, if the results end up being similar to the first two it would still be well within the margin of error

85

u/Karls0 Europe Jun 01 '25

In theory 1%, so if we will have the same, still we know nothing. But everyone expected that the result will be head to head. Also with so close result we can expect election complaints. So even at morning with official results it will be still not 100% closed case. To be sure, any of candidates have to win by at least 1-2%.

24

u/Kresnik2002 Michigan (United States) Jun 01 '25

Yeah, I guess we’ll just know when the counting is completely finished. Even at 99% results in it will probably be too close

Do they release the results on a rolling basis or does it just come out when they’re all done?

Also if I did the math right Poles abroad could be something like 3% of the votes; assuming the exit polls aren’t taking them into account that should be a notable if of course not totally conclusive good sign for Trz.

40

u/Karls0 Europe Jun 01 '25

More or less live:
2025 Presidential Election 2nd Round

Currently opposite to pools, but it is just 0.42% of votes counted, so not representative.

7

u/elziion Jun 01 '25

Thank you for the link!

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u/jarzyniowski Europe Jun 01 '25

In the morning. 

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u/TheTanadu Poland Jun 01 '25

nah, morning will be around 90-95% of counted

30

u/Brilliant-Ok Jun 01 '25

In Romania everything was counted by like 1 or 2 am

21

u/trephy Jun 01 '25 edited Jun 01 '25

Also it's because they closed all the voting stations around the world when they closed them in Romania. It was a first (at least in the last 15 years or more). Used to take well into the morning as well.

It's usually by a larger margin so you can call it a day earlier but we famously had unexpected switcheroos, even two elections ago, when the order changed by 2.000 votes or so at like 3 or 4 am.

I don t know how it is in Poland and if that plays a factor.

Edit because I just want to add, two presidential elections ago was just at the end of last year, because they were canceled. Fun stuff that never ends. :))

4

u/TheTanadu Poland Jun 01 '25

I'd say it could be... but we have many weird regions where it won't happen that quickly, and usually counting is done longer. Last time for presidency elections at morning we had 99% votes counted? Oh and we had events where offices had to run longer than 9p.m. due to long queues of people wanting to vote (literally finishing voting around 2a.m.).

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u/Auspectress Poland Jun 01 '25

People won't sleep this night

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u/observer234578 Jun 01 '25

We didnt sleep in Romania either until we saw the final count

147

u/dorugrz Jun 01 '25

Yes we did, by 12:00 AM he had enough votes to win the election.

173

u/tibithegreat Jun 01 '25

At 12:00AM we knew the results, but after that I stayed up watching the right-wing television cry :D, it was glorious

64

u/Senrogas Jun 01 '25

Best part about elections is watching the propaganda channel have a meltdown

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u/Emergency-Style7392 Europe Jun 01 '25

Nah I head money on nicusor and it was over when we saw the presence especially in urban areas. Romanian counting is so fast nicusor took the lead like half an hour in with big cities uncounted

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u/utsuriga Hungary Jun 01 '25

Seriously. I'm Hungarian and even I'm anxious as fuck.

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u/This_School8864 Jun 01 '25

Polish here, went to vote many hours ago, now stressed as hell. I am scared but will see. I honestly do not feel like sleeping, I doubt am gonna be able to fall asleep properly.

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u/JoshTheRussian Romania Jun 01 '25

I'm Romanian and will sleep with a deep worry about the fate of Eastern Europe

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u/Silentium_Universi Poland Jun 01 '25

I feel a little better knowing that people in other European countries actually care too 😅

Thank you, whatever happens. 

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u/Aerovore Jun 01 '25

This is extremely concerning that the votes are soooo close.

239

u/[deleted] Jun 01 '25

Thankfully the votes from other countries come in late and always favours Trzaskowski

59

u/Successful-Hearing87 Wallachia Jun 01 '25

In Romania was actually the opposite. Diaspora voted against the EU path of the country

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u/BriareusD Jun 01 '25

Your european diaspora, it seems like. The North and South American and other ones were heavily left leaning fortunately

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u/SaintPeanut Jun 01 '25

Literally the first counted votes are from abroad.

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u/ContributionMaximum9 Jun 01 '25

its not part of exit poll

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u/Jazzlike_Painter_118 Jun 01 '25

But they are not part of polls, are they?

17

u/JPHero16 The Glorious Kingdom of The Netherlands Jun 01 '25

I did see a funny thing: Every country except for Canada and America voted for Rafal. MAGA effect

**so far

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u/notveryamused_ Warszawa (Poland) 🇵🇱 Jun 01 '25 edited Jun 01 '25

It's too close to call, but fucking hell, the liberal candidate just said how he wants to build bridges and be a president of all Poles, the conservative one is quoting the Bible and says how he would fight the evil other side – and yes, he's a former pimp lol. I hope the pro-European side will win but for fucks sake, half of my country just voted for a fucking gangster. This is insane any way one looks at it...

Edit: it doesn't matter, it seems like we're fucked. No official results yet, but it looks terribly bad with the late poll results.

659

u/shadowrun456 Jun 01 '25

the conservative one is quoting the Bible and says how he would fight the evil other side – and yes, he's a former pimp lol

Is this the same guy who recently proudly admitted to having participated in a criminal-gang fight of 100+ people and called it "noble"?

166

u/This_School8864 Jun 01 '25

Yes that's the guy. He also used to manage an entire institute related to history, and fired 2 single mothers working there because they complained about their salaries being too low

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u/ventingpurposes Jun 01 '25

Nawrocki has an experience in firing single mothers, after years of being a pimp.

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u/ajuc Poland Jun 01 '25

Yes. And then Kaczyński said his late brother (famously a nerd) also participated in hooligan fights.

It would be hilarious if not for the fact it's my country.

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u/jestemmeteorem Poland Jun 01 '25

So did former PM Morawiecki.

It's pathetic how low political discourse has fallen.

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u/hisizzler Jun 01 '25

word for word the same thing happened in Romania.

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u/Faby077 Jun 01 '25

At least it wasn't this close

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u/michalsqi Poland Jun 01 '25

Yeah, this is deeply concerning. Like every second person I will pass on the street tomorrow wants a hooligan and a bandit to represent our country. What the heck???

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u/notveryamused_ Warszawa (Poland) 🇵🇱 Jun 01 '25 edited Jun 01 '25

I live in a neighbourhood of Warsaw where most residents are very, very old, honestly my neighbourhood has the median age around ~70 (and I'm still young, aye...). But they still vote liberal overwhelmingly :), those are mostly very okay grandmas lol. At least in Warsaw the results are going to be mostly for Trzaskowski, I don't have to worry that much about neighbours. We good :P

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u/NoodleTF2 Jun 01 '25

It won't be that many, remember that there are still all the non-voters that don't care :D

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u/michalsqi Poland Jun 01 '25

You are very much right! The participation rate seems around 73%, so not every second, but every third person.

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u/das_war_ein_Befehl Jun 01 '25

Pretty remarkable how hard right conservative candidates in every western country end up being complete pieces of shit.

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u/random_nutzer_1999 Jun 01 '25

Russia has been working on it for a deacde.

51

u/Thin-Image2363 Jun 01 '25

Zuckerberg and Elon too.

34

u/mg10pp Italy Jun 01 '25

Finally somebody who remembers to mention Zuckerberg, the "original Elon Musk" and the one who started everything

8

u/Barnyard_Rich United States of America Jun 01 '25

Seriously, we need to never let the right and media memory hole Cambridge Analytica.

3

u/Adduly Jun 01 '25

Yeah the thing that worries me with Cambridge Analytica is how little we hear about its successors. That definitely wasn't the end of the experiment or its competitors. For a start most of its staff formed a new company Emerdata Limited and later Auspex international.

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u/Willythechilly Sweden Jun 01 '25

Has Europe or the world always been this insane with votes or is this a recent thing?

Asking this as a European myself but i feel for most of the 19th century politicans were usually at least outwardly..."proper" if that makes sense?

Like not counting in Hitler

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u/Comfortable_Wear944 Jun 01 '25

far right nationalism is on the rise pretty much everywhere :<

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u/Willythechilly Sweden Jun 01 '25 edited Jun 02 '25

But why does it in general take the form of seeming mental retardation and weird candidates?

They all have some weird belief or shady background

9

u/LionRight4175 Jun 01 '25

Because basically all the actual evidence for effective policies is in favor of liberal or leftist policies.

International cooperation and trade, environmental protectionism (green energy, sustainable practices, etc), business regulations, social safety nets (singlepayer healthcare and the like), empathy; they are all, empirically, better than the alternatives. Because of this, people who get educated or have higher levels of intelligence tend to be liberal/leftist.

However, there are people who do not benefit from a stronger, healthier society; people like Putin, Musk, or the other absurdly rich. For them, weakening society is (they believe, at least) beneficial. So they pour a lot of time, money, and energy into encouraging counter factions.

There are very real societal problems that aren't being addressed globally that causes people to, rightfully, get upset. Unfortunately, a lot of people can't see the real causes, and support people/policies that will just make things worse.

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u/lordsilver14 Romania Jun 01 '25

So similar to how it was in Romania.

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u/Difficult_Tooth_3663 Europe Jun 01 '25

Same as in the USA

15

u/Calan_adan Jun 01 '25

Yeah, as an American it's hard not to be shaken by the results of the last election. 2016 was bad enough, but you could almost attribute that to people wanting a full change and giving the outsider a shot. But in 2024 we knew full-well his authoritarian leanings and voted him in anyway.

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u/Etalier Jun 01 '25

So as pro-European Finn, which of these two men should I root for? As in which one is quoting Bible and hatred and which one, from the sound of it at least, doing good stuff?

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u/notveryamused_ Warszawa (Poland) 🇵🇱 Jun 01 '25

Oh, let me tell you I enjoyed your elections :D, so calm and okay, both candidates were good for us from the Polish perspective. I don't know what Stubb does internally but yeah well, we can totally work with him and when it comes to geopolitics, we're like-minded.

In Poland the divide is much, much harsher. Nawrocki is the candidate of the populist-right party who has a serious far-right hooligan background outside of politics, Trzaskowski is the liberal mayor of Warsaw. Neither is pro-Russian, that's obvious, both want to strengthen our defenses, but their foreign policies are very different. Trzaskowski is fully pro-European but stresses the importance of working with the US gov't, as we kinda have to, Nawrocki is totally pro-Trumpist MAGA, and yeah the Bible and all that shitfuckery.

From your perspective pretty much every Finn should root for Trzaskowski, who's winning at the moment but it might change. Except for Finns who are pro-Russia (do they exist?) or pro-MAGA.

13

u/Etalier Jun 01 '25

Good early sign then!

Stubb internally is mostly known for lying to parliament and saying "sorry about that" and then disappearing to international politics.

That said, Finnish president is mostly ceremonial internally and does have role on foreign relations, but difference there is very mild. Stubb is lot more pro-USA through party affiliation, and while it includes MAGA by definition, that's not the real maga-party. Our presidents usually do usually leave the party membership, though obviously you still associate them to theirs.

And yeah we have some pro-Russian people, but most of them have Russian citizenship. Few outliers exist on both left and right, but those outliers tend to eventually find their way out of their party. Our "far right" (True Finns) can tolerate a lot, but not supporting Russia. I recall one true putinist/maga from last parliament started his own party after being kicked from his previous one, didnt get voted in last election and has been sprouting conspiracies and some Russian interviews/panels. Joke for basicly everyone here, no idea how seriously taken in Russian citizenry, if known at all.

And while our border closure with Russia is tougher nail to bite for our left parties, it is supported by vast majority all around. Leftist parties take issue with refugees not being allowed in. Real and valid reason, but Russia weaponized refugees by sending them by busloads. Unfortunately.

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u/maximalusdenandre Sweden Jun 01 '25

How much does the president matter in Poland? Does he have actual power like in France or is he just a figurehead like in Finland?

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u/notveryamused_ Warszawa (Poland) 🇵🇱 Jun 01 '25

In between. No, the head of the government is the prime minister and president's role is pretty limited, but our presidents have the right of veto which effectively allows them to sabotage the government, like the current conservative president does to the liberal government at the moment. Nawrocki would be much more radical and pretty much disable any possible reform for the next 5 years.

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u/maximalusdenandre Sweden Jun 01 '25

Dang. Well I'm wishing you guys luck.

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u/[deleted] Jun 01 '25

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u/sadpotatoandtomato Poland (Kraków supremacy) Jun 01 '25

I hope you're right. But still I hate that's it's so close considering who Nawrocki is

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u/Maximum_Act1578 Jun 01 '25

The Nawrocki supporters mainly voted after Sunday mess means usually from down to 5pm Fckn morons

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u/KennyGaming Jun 01 '25

What’s wrong with that?

30

u/micpop2 Jun 01 '25

nothing in particular - OP means that Nawrocki's result could be more set in stone and Trzaskowski's voters could still be giving last minute ballots (but there are still many young voters voting Nawrocki, so this could go the other way round, and increase Nawrocki's count...)

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u/Boomer_Nurgle Jun 01 '25

I'd like that to be the truth but at this close of a % I feel like it's just coping. Hope to be wrong about it.

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u/Glavurdan Montenegro Jun 01 '25

Also diaspora leans Trzaskowski

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u/segv Poland Jun 01 '25

Also worth noting that the stated measurement error for this exit poll was +/- 2 percent points.

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u/NatiFluffy Poland Jun 01 '25

Close as expected

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u/WhatAboutFC Jun 01 '25

Emotions from Romania 🇷🇴

I hope Rafal wins.

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u/inszuszinak Jun 01 '25

Thank you!

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u/Natopor Iași (Romania) Jun 01 '25

Our first polls also put Nicușor first

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u/grab_my_third_leg Slovenia Jun 01 '25

Explain this to me in terms of DOTA 2.

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u/mandown25 Jun 01 '25

The Templar assassin and crystal maiden in your team are fighting for mid, and rolled the same number. So you emailed valve employees to get the decimal part of the roll, they did not respond yet.

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u/demasiado1983 Jun 01 '25

CM has -10k behaviour score and admits cheating but it's fine cause the TA has LGBT tag.

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u/kamkaskan Jun 01 '25

You are a support.

You can go safe lane with random russian pos 1 Pudge with voice chat ban and white power symbol as avatar

Or

You can go offlane with your friendly nerd who knows everything about the game, but is really bad manually and overthings everything. He also decided to play pos 3 but he'll end up as pos 6 trying to fix everything because no one is doing the perfect thing from pro meta.

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5

u/TheMysteriousGirl Jun 01 '25

Wild dota 2 appears.

God I hope it really isn’t this bad for polish folks, I know it’s a very split country. No matter what happens, please be safe my polish friends.

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u/Accomplished-Gas-288 Poland Jun 01 '25

I might have a heart attack

P.S. Why the fuck Trzaskowski is already celebrating and acting like he won

62

u/Lex4709 Jun 01 '25

Diaspora votes lean decidely towards Trzaskowski according to polling, and they're the last to be counted. So he has reason to be confident in his victory. Tho, its obviously not decided yet. It's way too close to call yet.

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u/sadpotatoandtomato Poland (Kraków supremacy) Jun 01 '25

tbf 5 years ago Duda celebrated when he was like 50,4

13

u/Scared-Way-9828 Jun 01 '25

Honestly i thought he will play it safer by saying that it was too close to say for sure but during that moment they have won and should be proud

12

u/Emergency-Style7392 Europe Jun 01 '25

For Romanians: "Mihaela dragostea mea"

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223

u/deopol Jun 01 '25

I hope you have the same outcome as we did in Romania. We're rooting for you!🇵🇱🇪🇺🇷🇴

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u/l_______I Poland Jun 01 '25

And OGB poll (for TV Republika): 50,17 for Trzaskowski vs 49,83 for Nawrocki.

Well, let the long night begin.

29

u/Exciting_Product7858 Jun 01 '25

That's so freakin' ridiculously close, it feels unreal. What is this, the Truman Show?

22

u/AnalphabeticPenguin Poland Jun 01 '25

It's normal for the second round of our presidential elections. Last time Duda won over Trzaskowski with 51.03%.

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u/LittleBrainpower Jun 01 '25

You need to understand - you can't be pro Russian and be successful in Poland. Both are anti Russian. But Nawrocki is somewhat anti EU so he's better for Russia.

16

u/[deleted] Jun 01 '25

Yeah the pro russian candidate got like 0.4% lmao

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u/horizontal120 Slovenia Jun 01 '25

This kind of close results are never good this will lead to problems no matter who wins

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u/Edelgul Jun 01 '25

Republika/ogb got 50.17/49.83

The duffernce is smaller the thr margin or error for Exit polls.

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u/Firebart3q Jun 01 '25

Trzaskowski is sure he won. I hope so, but it can still go either way

30

u/elziion Jun 01 '25

Indeed, keeping an eye out and hoping for the best for Poland.

42

u/East-Royal1337 Jun 01 '25

We had a similar episode 15 years ago in Romania, when Geona celebrated like he was sure he won, but in the morning the result was different.

Lets have moderate optimism until all votes are counted!

8

u/jestemmeteorem Poland Jun 01 '25

I don't think he is sure, but what's he supposed to say?

3

u/Firebart3q Jun 01 '25

Yeah, I know. I could see that he wasnt fully satisfied with a score, but still i am sure i wont see him on r/agedlikemilk

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u/FeatheredDrake Jun 01 '25

Good luck, Poland! Romania won, and so will you ❤️

19

u/simihal101 Jun 01 '25

Good luck Poland 🫶🫶🫶

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18

u/Mysterious-Buddy6273 Romania Jun 01 '25

Is there a site where we can see the live counting like in Romania?

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u/12alex123 E Jun 01 '25

If only PiS has candidate with no criminal history it will be over. Many Mentzen voters didn't attemp because of Nawrocki "achivements"

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u/VirtualSingularity Jun 01 '25

Where we can watch live counting of the election? Romania had something for this, real-time

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u/yasinburak15 US|Turkiye 🇹🇷🇺🇸 Jun 01 '25

Good luck Poland. I wish you luck

7

u/pantrokator-bezsens Jun 01 '25

Guys, Trzaskowski has to win because I want president that our western colleagues will have hard time pronouncing his last name. Too long we made that easy for them with people like Duda or Tusk.

5

u/Same_Ebb_7129 Jun 01 '25

I refuse to believe that all the major nations are split down the middle like this. There’s just no way everything is a 50/50 split.

43

u/supersonic-bionic United Kingdom Jun 01 '25

Come on Poland, it shouldn't be so close

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u/ahora-mismo Bucharest Jun 01 '25

good luck from romania, i wish you pull it through.

38

u/rRocketscientist Jun 01 '25

88% - 12% on Polymarket. It's over.

108

u/veevoir Europe Jun 01 '25

Polymarket also has 4% chance of Jesus returning in 2025, so, yeah. Only thing we have left is to wait and see

13

u/IfirebirdI Jun 01 '25

Can I bet on the 96% against?

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u/Emergency-Style7392 Europe Jun 01 '25

Polymarket had simion at 75% at some point, morons just love to lose money

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u/melancholyseasons Jun 01 '25

This is too early to tell... Statistical error may destroy us...

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u/Aveduil Jun 01 '25

why since brexit all elections are like 50:50+-5%? almost globaly.

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4

u/r3dditcoffee Romania Jun 01 '25

Good luck Poland! 🇵🇱🤝🇹🇩

5

u/BowelMan Jun 01 '25

Apparently this poll does not include polonia vote which is set to give Trzaskowski about 1% more, so I'm hopeful.

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5

u/KirbyMadeMeGoodBJ Jun 01 '25

As of the latest polls its 50.7 for that pimp nawrocki

6

u/theluxgirl Luxembourg transfem :3 Jun 01 '25

the fact that it's even close baffles me

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u/KitsuneRatchets England Jun 01 '25

Is the diaspora being counted as well? I think it was the Moldovan diaspora that got Moldova's EU referendum to pass, and especially with this close of a percentage and this large of a diaspora, the Polish diaspora might decide the results

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u/MothInt0Flame Jun 01 '25

Is there any website where we can see the live vote counting?

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4

u/krzyk Poland Jun 01 '25

Last time it was 50.4 (Duda) Vs 49.6 (Trzaskowski). Ewentually, Duda got 51.03 percent of votes I fear this will be similar and PiS will get 0.6 more than they currently have.

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u/qerel123 Lesser Poland (Poland) Jun 01 '25

i am going to explode

4

u/pycior Jun 01 '25

Checkout the late polls man.

4

u/Bitter_Air_5203 Jun 01 '25

Late polls show the opposite....

4

u/LegendarniKakiBaki Jun 01 '25

Only like 4 % of the vote has been counted and reported. We are a long ways off from any tangeable results

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u/KelIthra Jun 02 '25

Unfortunately now it seems like the Right Wing party is winning now still potential for it to shift again. But it isn't looking good now unfortunately.

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u/Striking_Branch_2744 Northern Ireland Jun 01 '25

Well, Poland. You had a taste of democratic backsliding, you got rid of it for a time but alot of your voting base craved it once again.

Good luck I guess, first lost of democracy on what I can assume is gonna be a whole bunch of far right victories going forward.

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u/marginaal14 Jun 01 '25

I think it’s a bit hypocritical that everyone is praising and thanking the diaspora now, while also saying that diaspora votes should be abolished when talking about Romania or Turkey. Downvote as much as you’d like, it’s true.

4

u/Constant_Natural3304 The Netherlands Jun 01 '25

Yeah obviously, I want democracy, human rights and resistance against Russia to prevail, and I don't care how it happens. Computational propaganda and social media brainwashing is an existential threat.

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u/Lagoon_M8 Jun 01 '25

Unfortunately in late poll it's 50.7 for Nawrocki... Poles are stupid

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24

u/[deleted] Jun 01 '25

[deleted]

11

u/Scared-Way-9828 Jun 01 '25

We honestly dont know yet. The results are way too close

18

u/Financial_Plane5754 Jun 01 '25

none of the candidates are even remotely close to liking russia

7

u/polypolip Jun 01 '25

No, but it's better if Orban doesn't gain more allies in EU.

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u/Salt_Bug4223 Jun 01 '25

Where the results can be followed? Could anyone share it, please?

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3

u/Elektrycerz Mazovia (Poland) Jun 01 '25

Polymarket says 83% for Trzaskowski right now

3

u/PolskiDupek31 Mazovia (Poland) Jun 01 '25

Jebac PiS

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