At 23:00 will be more precise Late Poll. Exit poll can have up to 2% difference per candidate. So at this point we know nothing. Official results probably tomorrow, but hard to say exact hour.
What’s the margin of error for the 23:00 exit poll? Because even at 1% or 0.5%, if the results end up being similar to the first two it would still be well within the margin of error
In theory 1%, so if we will have the same, still we know nothing. But everyone expected that the result will be head to head. Also with so close result we can expect election complaints. So even at morning with official results it will be still not 100% closed case. To be sure, any of candidates have to win by at least 1-2%.
Yeah, I guess we’ll just know when the counting is completely finished. Even at 99% results in it will probably be too close
Do they release the results on a rolling basis or does it just come out when they’re all done?
Also if I did the math right Poles abroad could be something like 3% of the votes; assuming the exit polls aren’t taking them into account that should be a notable if of course not totally conclusive good sign for Trz.
Exit poll means that a number of voters get a second "ballot" which is then deposited separately. That obviously didn't happen abroad. Some of the electoral districts in Germany and the UK are size-wise pretty much on par with those in Poland itself and they usually declare quite late. My GF is Polish and she voted in NI where we have 6 districts while England alone has like 80 or so...And since RT will carry the votes abroad he will get a small boost as soon as DE and UK have declared. He will probably win there by a 250k-300k margin.
Can anyone with local knowledge help me on the question of whether, with 11.47% of the vote in, it appears Nawrocki favoring areas are coming in quicker? Right now he's up by a bit, but it feels like his areas are reporting faster thanks to fewer stations.
Yeah, sadly, the numbers that have come in since my first comment are telling a pretty straight story. Trzaskowski even just went negative since 2020 in Warsaw, even if it's just by a tiny margin.
2%. However there was also the pro-Nawrocki exit poll that tend to overhype Nawrocki and it was 49,83 vs 50,17 for Trzaskowski as well (and that doesn’t include overseas results that favor Trzaskowski)
From Onet: "Karol Nawrocki prowadzi w II turze wyborów prezydenckich 2025 r. z wynikiem 50,7 proc. — wynika z sondażu late poll przygotowanego przez Ipsos dla TVP, TVN i Polsatu. Rafał Trzaskowski ma 49,3. "
Nawrocki got 50,7% vs Trzaskowski's 49,3% in the late poll- they almost swapped their places compared to the exit poll.
Also it's because they closed all the voting stations around the world when they closed them in Romania. It was a first (at least in the last 15 years or more). Used to take well into the morning as well.
It's usually by a larger margin so you can call it a day earlier but we famously had unexpected switcheroos, even two elections ago, when the order changed by 2.000 votes or so at like 3 or 4 am.
I don t know how it is in Poland and if that plays a factor.
Edit because I just want to add, two presidential elections ago was just at the end of last year, because they were canceled. Fun stuff that never ends. :))
I'd say it could be... but we have many weird regions where it won't happen that quickly, and usually counting is done longer. Last time for presidency elections at morning we had 99% votes counted? Oh and we had events where offices had to run longer than 9p.m. due to long queues of people wanting to vote (literally finishing voting around 2a.m.).
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u/TheMidnightBear Romania Jun 01 '25
When will we get the results?