r/europe • u/Caciulacdlac • Jun 01 '25

Data Polish Presidential Elections exit poll

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u/Karls0 Europe Jun 01 '25

More or less live:
2025 Presidential Election 2nd Round

Currently opposite to pools, but it is just 0.42% of votes counted, so not representative.

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u/elziion Jun 01 '25

Thank you for the link!

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u/Kresnik2002 Michigan (United States) Jun 01 '25

I assume exit polls didn’t include voters abroad, right?

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u/Hussor Pole in UK Jun 01 '25

Don't think they do, but generally in the first round Trzaskowski was the more popular choice abroad except in the US and Canada.

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u/Karls0 Europe Jun 01 '25

Hard to say. Abroad votes are know the fastest (at last some of them), so it should. But I know no details about exact methodology.

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u/Knarrenheinz666 Jun 01 '25

Exit poll means that a number of voters get a second "ballot" which is then deposited separately. That obviously didn't happen abroad. Some of the electoral districts in Germany and the UK are size-wise pretty much on par with those in Poland itself and they usually declare quite late. My GF is Polish and she voted in NI where we have 6 districts while England alone has like 80 or so...And since RT will carry the votes abroad he will get a small boost as soon as DE and UK have declared. He will probably win there by a 250k-300k margin.

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u/PM_ME_FLUFFY_SAMOYED Poland Jun 01 '25

No they don't. But they tend to be some of the fastest to be included in the official count.

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u/Barnyard_Rich United States of America Jun 01 '25

Can anyone with local knowledge help me on the question of whether, with 11.47% of the vote in, it appears Nawrocki favoring areas are coming in quicker? Right now he's up by a bit, but it feels like his areas are reporting faster thanks to fewer stations.

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u/Karls0 Europe Jun 01 '25

PiS has higher share in small villages, so smaller electoral districts. That probably explains that fact.

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u/Barnyard_Rich United States of America Jun 01 '25

Yeah, sadly, the numbers that have come in since my first comment are telling a pretty straight story. Trzaskowski even just went negative since 2020 in Warsaw, even if it's just by a tiny margin.

Almost certainly too late to turn it around now.

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u/LuckyCanadian Jun 01 '25

Why does the website have a check box to exclude overseas?

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u/Karls0 Europe Jun 02 '25

Probably just for comparison