r/europe Jun 01 '25

Data Polish Presidential Elections exit poll

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u/LegendarniKakiBaki Jun 01 '25

Even if this was the final result, it would be a problematic one.

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u/veevoir Europe Jun 01 '25

Any result that is not a Nawrocki win will be soon "problematic", the right already laid a lot of groundwork into convincing their voters that either they win - or election are stolen. They will pull the US trick.

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u/sebixi Jun 01 '25

They tried this in Romania too, but the results were way too obvious here to try to pull off any of that shit. My thoughts are with my polish brothers and sisters tonight <3

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u/Nerioner The Netherlands Jun 01 '25

Well now real job only begins in Romania and Poland. Because if we do nothing, in next elections it is a clean sweep for far right.

We need to counterbalance them at the very least and push back ideally

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u/Jackmerious Jun 01 '25

That’s why they need to get into office and implement some real reforms that actually matter to people. Things that will help them. Don’t waste time on nonsense. Do so much good that it won’t matter what the Fascists say.

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u/GolemancerVekk 🇪🇺 🇷🇴 Jun 01 '25

Yeah the problem is that reform hurts and it's easy to twist it as "see what those mean guys are doing to you".

But what really gets on my tits is when the party that ruined the economy, and still got the most seats in Parliament somehow, decide to go into opposition for the duration of the reform so they aren't the bad guy.

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u/ieatcavemen United Kingdom Jun 01 '25

How did that work out for Biden? Good governance and actions to benefit the populace have no effect on a radicalised population that is inoculated from hearing any positive news about anyone who isn't a fascist.

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u/Jackmerious Jun 01 '25

I think the problem with what happened over here was that the positive economic improvements made during his administration were overshadowed by reports of his mental fitness, and it wasn’t helped by the media, or by our absolutely lazy ass voting populace who stayed home because “both sides are the same!” I’m honestly not sure how the Polish or Romanian media handle fascist politicians there.

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u/sudoku7 Jun 02 '25

Lots of contributors and it was close in the end, so it is absolutely possible that any one little thing could cause a significant change.

With that out of the way, it felt closer to the bits with Bush v Clinton. The economy wasn't really that bad relative to the prevailing circumstance, yet people still felt economic pain, so they voted for a change. Folks experiencing economic hardships (real or perceived) aren't won over by telling them that they are actually doing well.

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u/[deleted] Jun 01 '25

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u/DonMikoDe_LaMaukando Jun 01 '25

The number of deporations rose by 90% in 2024 under Biden, thats not leaving the border open.

The Republicans also killed his bill for better border control.

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u/martyqscriblerus Jun 01 '25

Good governance and actions to benefit the populace have no effect on a radicalised population that is inoculated from hearing any positive news about anyone who isn't a fascist.

He already said it, you don't need to show up to prove it

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u/FamilySpy Jun 01 '25

Biden was better than expected, but ultimately is one of the worst democratic presidents. And being mentally and potientially pysically unwell while not informing the public or even setting up a successor is not ok.

He barely won in 2020 against Trump, this should have been a slame dunk easy win, a ham sandwich could have won, it was clear early on his messaging at best was mediocore.

Immigration was a weakness as he continued trump era policy (seperating families etc), but was attacked by right for being weak on boarder, if no one likes ur position and its morally wrong maybe change it.

Good governance and decent marketing should work, Biden is not a counter-example.

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u/Mnemnosyne Jun 02 '25

Those are nice but not enough. Biden utterly failed at his most important task: making sure that anyone in government who did even the tiniest illegal thing was prosecuted to the maximum possible extent. And quickly (as in, trials resolved before the election).

Because as long as there's no consequences and the people doing shit aren't punished, they will do it again and again until they succeed by whatever means necessary. I hope Romanian and Polish leaders understand that and will act accordingly.

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u/SchighSchagh Romania Jun 02 '25

Biden forgot to actually explain to everyone everything he accomplished. And he was a centrist who didn't really accomplish enough to get anyone actually excited for him/Dem party.

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u/sebixi Jun 01 '25

For sure, and I think if anyone can be the reformist doing the 'real work' needed to be done, it is Nicusor and hopefully a lot of the young people the voted for him. It is however right because besides the far-right you are also fighting the dinosaur political establishment in the PSD and some elements of the PNL which is are harmful and toxic forces in romanian society. This is coming from a person with leftist values. Our left is garbage and sadly we don't have a real progressive/left political force in Romania :(

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u/GyroZeppeliFucker Jun 01 '25

In poland Zandberg has been getting more and more popular lately, so if he doesnt stop being active in what hes doing, he might get popular enough to balance out Mentzen (or Bosak) in the next election

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u/PensiveinNJ Jun 01 '25

Political parties need to wise up about how the far right weaponizes social media platforms (even more obscure ones) to recruit. They were miles ahead of democratic establishments in understanding how to utilize algorithms, and it's been depressing how slow democracies have been to respond. Cambridge Analytica was pioneering those techniques in the first Trump election almost a decade ago now.

Hearing that Kamala had blown a lot of her massive fundraising number on a "ground game" (door knocking, etc.) was infuriating. The Republicans ran circles around us because they're miles ahead in understanding how to spread disinformation and persuade people over social media.

If your political parties aren't understanding how potent a tool this is to persuade people to both veer to the right and to vote then there's going to be more shock losses in the future.