r/europe Jun 01 '25

Data Polish Presidential Elections exit poll

Post image
12.2k Upvotes

1.2k comments sorted by

View all comments

9

u/Aveduil Jun 01 '25

why since brexit all elections are like 50:50+-5%? almost globaly.

1

u/Mapeague Jun 02 '25

That is a very good query.

1

u/michal939 Jun 02 '25

Because that's the equilibrium. If one side starts gaining more and wins by something like 60/40 then the other party will shift itself closer to the winning party in order to have a chance of winning and bring the results back closer to 50/50

1

u/JimWilliams423 Jun 02 '25

why since brexit all elections are like 50:50+-5%? almost globaly.

Because supposedly left-wing parties keep ignoring left-wing voters to chase conservative voters instead. Which is futile when an authentic conservative is on the ballot. So they pick up basically no conservative voters, but they lose left-wing voters to apathy.

In countries where the left decides to be authentically left-wing, it goes the other way. Look at Mexico. Last year, the incumbent left-wing party ran on a leftist platform and won in a landslide, it was the largest winning margin in the country's history. Meanwhile everybody was making excuses for incumbent parties who lost, blaming it on covid backlash, inflation, etc. Any reason other than the obvious one -- a lot of people want real leftist policies, if that's not on the ballot, they feel like its not worth bothering to vote.