r/europe • u/AlfredsChild England • 2d ago

News Reform takes shock 15-point lead over Labour as Farage dreams of winning power

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/reform-shock-15-point-lead-labour-farage-power-3887857
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u/AlfredsChild England 2d ago

Mostly comes down to the "Boriswave". Boris Johnson massively increased immigration despite strong promises to reduce it, and this has inevitably resulted in ethnic tensions that sparked last year with the riots. So for the right-wing of the electorate, voting Conservative is now a no-no. This has ultimately pulled in a lot of the centre-right as well who see a vote for the Conservative to be a waste, as well a large portion of the traditionalists of the working-class who now have the ability to vote "not Labour" as Reform lack the historical baggage that the Tories do.

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u/berejser These Islands 2d ago

The riot's last year weren't because of Boris Johnson, they were because of misinformation and fake news campaigns that originated from overseas. The UK is a cautionary tale of what happens when countries don't get a lid on fake news and foreign disinformation campaigns.

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u/rrschch85 Berlin (Germany) 2d ago

The UK is a cautionary tale on many things: on a lack of action against fake news, illegal migration, decades long austerity politics, and internet censorship. I don’t know how it is in other countries, but here in Germany I’ve heard multiple people say that “we don’t wanna end up like England”.

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u/Path_of_Hegemony 2d ago edited 2d ago

Here in Denmark, we used to say such things about Sweden because of their insane stance on immigration and asylum during the nightmarish "Wir Schaffen Das" years (they basically tried to one-up Merckle).

Now we are beginning to do the same with UK, because they've become a prime Orwellian censorship state, with seemingly no wish to understand how much damage that level of middle eastern and south asian immigration can do to a country, or how much damage it has already done.

I mean, the Rotham Pedo Rings alone would likely have seen any pro-immigration parties kicked out of parliament, with the Danish People's Party (the "we do not want muslims here" party) become goverment.

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u/militantcentre World Heritage United Kingdom 2d ago

To call the UK a "prime Orwellian" state is utterly ridiculous. However, you're mainly correct.

The current situation here is the culmination of 3 decades during which the population never voted for mass immigration, but got it nevertheless. The seeds of Reform were planted by Blair, when he shunned the 7 year transition for the new Eastern members of the EU and opened our labour market 100% from day one. Only Sweden followed suit. The government predicted about 10K would come - it ended up around 1M. Possibly the most wildly inaccurate government prediction in history. It meant we suddenly were awash with plumbers, electricians and sullen bar staff. Also many areas experiencing dramatic increases in multi occupancy houses full of foreigners. There was widespread discontent, which eventually played a very big part in Brexit. Blair was also relaxed about immigration from Muslim countries, and this increased massively, whilst he set about bombing those same countries. Then puzzled why so many kicked off here in Blighty. Blair was a fucking idiot most of the time.

Whilst the reptilian Johnson played on this bigtime whilst peddling his huge Brexit lie, he allowed the doors to be swung open and allowed immigration at a level never experienced in history. This time the majority came from Africa and the Indian sub-continent and were more noticeable than our European cousins.

The stark facts are thus: since 2000, the population of the UK has increased by 6 million, which is a full 10%, yet we have built no homes, no hospitals (and no prisons) in which to accommodate them. The south east of England is now more densely populated than the Netherlands. Nobody ever asked for this, yet it has happened all the same.

I am a centrist and would never, ever, even think of voting for Farage and his ghastly party. I've voted LibDem at every opportunity since 1979, but they are the most liberal about immigration, and it will make me think twice next time. Meanwhile, I totally understand why people are flocking to Reform as they are exasperated by the traditional parties. It doesn't have to be this way. The social democrats in Denmark have managed to have a strong bulwark against immigration without abandoning their principles.

I dread a forthcoming Farage government - and they will be a total disaster - but I fear it's way too late to stop it.

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u/4got_2wipe_again 1d ago

I'd say the social media arrests are pretty fucking Orwellian

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u/militantcentre World Heritage United Kingdom 1d ago

You think that somehow, social media should be exempt from the laws that apply to everything else? That you should be able to call for the burning of asylum seeker hotels with impunity?

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u/BoutTime22 2d ago

And that is what is happening. The popularity of Farage is a reaction to those very things.

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u/Path_of_Hegemony 2d ago

But Farage dosn't actually seem to want to stop immigration, only slightly limit it.

DF (Danish People's Party) would've gone for a full stop on both immigration and asylum, as well as deportations.

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u/BoutTime22 2d ago

Not wanting to split hairs or be a dick, but they are different things. Immigration will always be a thing. Asylum is taking the p*ss at current levels.

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u/militantcentre World Heritage United Kingdom 2d ago

Asylum is a very small part of the equation, though the headline grabber.

Net immigration into the UK was around 900,000 in 2023. The government is very happy it slumped to a mere 450,000 in 2024.

Immigration at that level cannot be a "thing" for much longer.

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u/Teddington_Quin 2d ago

I think it’s Germany that’s the cautionary tale here given that it is much like the rest of Europe is suffering from the same problems as the UK and is performing worse in economic terms

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u/PoiHolloi2020 United Kingdom 2d ago

Bit rich of people from the Wir schaffen das country to lecture us about immigration tbh.

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u/marsilva123 2d ago

If you're lucky, the UK will get a similar party before it's too late.

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u/DugaJoe 2d ago

How do you get control of fake news online though? You either have control over what people see and say online, or you have uncensored internet, you can't have both. The instigators are overseas, so you can't just say, "lock up the instigators".

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u/SnooOpinions8790 2d ago

Multiple perspectives can be true at the same time - the UK is also a cautionary tale of what happens when the authorities conspire to cover up crimes on a massive scale for decades and get caught in the act. The level of trust in those authorities has plummeted - they are no longer considered credible sources of information by many people

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u/Unctuous_Robot 2d ago

British police can’t be bothered to do anything about any rapists, no matter the color of their skin.

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u/SnooOpinions8790 2d ago

If you really think this is normal you need to read the Casey report

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u/nemma88 United Kingdom 2d ago

The Casey report doesn't really deal much with 'normality'. It's a high level review into a subset of a subset of CSA - group based CSE. It makes no comment outside that.

If you read the recommendations though you can probably gather how they might benefit all around.

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u/SnooOpinions8790 2d ago

My point is that she clearly found stuff that she believes to be abnormal even by the usual low standards of the police and social services

Time will tell how much of that turns out to be substantiated by a full enquiry but institutions have had decades to erase any paper trail of what went on so my fear is it will all be inconsequential

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u/nemma88 United Kingdom 2d ago

I think it is more an effect of just what it looks like when it's taken seriously, and if that's the only areas going to be digged into my hope is it also helps the rest. Most recommendations of it do, the first recommendation, automatic charging is the big one.

Tentatively I am a woman who grew up under South Yorkshire Police in the WWC - but my village was 100% white. I was there Gandalf, and my experiences are ones where grooming was largely ignored, regardless of the heritage of those involved.

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u/militantcentre World Heritage United Kingdom 2d ago

Idiotic statement.

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u/PatrickTheSosij 1d ago

Lies like yours will just empower farage.

Its real. You need to accept it, and if you don't good bye to any semblance of centrist parties.

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u/berejser These Islands 1d ago

Lies like yours will just empower farage.

What specifically did I say that was a lie?

Its real. You need to accept it, and if you don't good bye to any semblance of centrist parties.

Are you threatening to ban political parties?

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u/PatrickTheSosij 1d ago

The riots were not because of fake news or misinformation. They were going to happen regardless. Once Manchester airport happened, and harehills, there was ALWAYS going to a riot it just needed the match.

No I'm saying that by ignoring the issue we get what we deserve which is these dangerous parties.

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u/berejser These Islands 1d ago

The riots were not because of fake news or misinformation.

Yes they were. Unless you're telling me that the Southport Killer really was a Muslim asylum seeker called Ali al-Shakati and all of the fake news wasn't fake?

It wouldn't make any sense for people protesting the killings to attack mosques and asylum centres unless they falsely believed that the attacker was a Muslim or an asylum seeker.

Their is no other logical explanation for their behaviour. Unless you're about to suggest that it is somehow logical to attack a Burger King because you found a fly in your Big Mac.

They were going to happen regardless.

That's pure speculation on your part.

No I'm saying that by ignoring the issue we get what we deserve which is these dangerous parties.

So you're saying that Britain and the British people deserve far-right race riots because they haven't been voting the way you want them to? What a joke.

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u/Halofit Slovenia 1d ago

I don't know how to explain it to you people any more clearly, because anyone with half a brain has intuited this 10 years ago. This entire - multi country - shift to the hard right is literally just downstream of the simple fact that governments all across the western world decided to engage in massive, depraved, demographic altering, immigration against the wishes of the electorate. They did this again and again, even when they were promising to reduce immigration. They repeatedly hid and lied about the negative consequences of the said immigration, all while the massive pro-immigration NGO racket tarred and feathered everyone who spoke against them on the topic.

It's literally all downstream of that. You want normal politics back? Just stop the 3rd world immigration. It's that simple. You can have all your social democracy, and your safety nets, and your LGBT friendly governance, and everything you want. You just have to stop the immigration. Or you can have the next 30 years of politics just be a constant struggle to keep the far-right out of government in every western country all the time. Your choice.

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u/berejser These Islands 1d ago

Or you can have the next 30 years of politics just be a constant struggle to keep the far-right out of government in every western country all the time. Your choice.

Have you ever considered that, if you are using the far-right as a tool to hold the place hostage so you can get what you want, and what you want just so happens to line up with what the far-right wants, that maybe your position isn't the correct one?

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u/Halofit Slovenia 1d ago

Hitler drank water, therefore water bad?

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u/berejser These Islands 1d ago

That's a really weak argument. Try again.

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u/berejser These Islands 1d ago

Racism and xenophobia are not intuitive, they are emotive. You are not intuiting anything, you are just having an emotional reaction to what is mostly only social media propaganda.

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u/[deleted] 1d ago

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u/berejser These Islands 1d ago

Quite a lot of it was overhyped by social media. That doesn't mean to say that it wasn't an issue that needs to be addressed, but address it with sensible reforms not with broad-brush hysteria targeting entire ethnic or religious groups that mostly comprise people who had nothing to do with it.

Since we're talking about the UK, how many pedophiles have been found in senior positions within the far-right in the UK? (hint: the number is higher than what you are thinking)

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u/FiVeIV 1d ago

Lol "welsh choir boy" is as fake as news gets

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u/berejser These Islands 1d ago

How is it fake if it is his actual life story? If he was a welsh chior boy at one point then that isn't fake news for the news to report that, you just don't like it because it doesn't play into your political agenda.

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u/FiVeIV 1d ago

Yes "welsh" choir boy is absolutely his defining characteristic his family has been here for thousands of years!you dont like the truth because it doesn't suit your agenda

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u/berejser These Islands 1d ago

Who is claiming that being a choir boy was his "defining characteristic"? I don't think it's under any dispute that brutal child murderer is his defining characteristic.

You might want to check your blood pressure before you read this next part, but your family doesn't have to have been here for thousands of years for you to be Welsh/Scottish/English/British. Both your family and my family likely haven't been here for thousands of years, these are nations who have been defined by repeated waves of migration throughout their history. Truth might hurt, but that's the truth.

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u/VeryProidChintu 2d ago

I mean look at gb news. Its a real "patriort english" news channel. Ironically they spread the biggest misinfo and yh love israel

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u/Aethericseraphim 2d ago

Spearheaded by the CEO of Swasticar Inc.

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u/Laxly 2d ago

I agree but disagree.

There are obviously tensions due to immigrants, but most of it due to the average person not having enough money to live a comfortable life.

Low wages, increasing cost of food and houses, a social security system on its knees, no investment and no positivity.

If the average person had enough money this wouldn't be an issue.

Historically the right has chosen a bogey man and told you they're the reason you're poor, in the 80's it was the Irish and Black people, it's been Indian and Pakistani people, gay people, single mums, disabled and Europeans.

If you look back to the late 90's and early 00's when the country was prospering none of these people were a major concern, but as soon as finances get right, along comes a charlatan to tell you that Johnny forefinger has stolen your magic beans

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u/PatrickTheSosij 1d ago

There are obviously tensions due to immigrants, but most of it due to the average person not having enough money to live a comfortable life.

This isn't true. People will stiff upper lip and deal with having to eat gruel, but what they don't like is chalk and cheese cultures.

If you look back to the late 90's and early 00's when the country was prospering none of these people were a major concern, but as soon as finances get right, along comes a charlatan to tell you that Johnny forefinger has stolen your magic beans

Islam wasnt as big as it is today in the 90s.

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u/LeBlueBaloon 1d ago

Agreed. The UK needs to get more housing built.

The way to do that is to standardize the building permit application process and drastically cut down on the rules and regulations local levels can put in place to restrict expanding the housing supply.

When housing costs drop and economic hubs can expand, all the other problem largely go away.

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u/militantcentre World Heritage United Kingdom 2d ago

"No investment"? WTF are you talking about? Inflation has been a worldwide problem, in case you hadn't noticed, and wage rises have been ahead of inflation for some time now.

People like you patronise poorer people who are well aware of it. It's why they turn to people like Farage.

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u/Laxly 2d ago

Apologies, I was making the point that at times of a poor economy it is the "working class" that feel the pain first and the most, and at times like that it is understandable to look for reasons why as they see the rich getting richer even in times of hardship and it is at that those times that the likes of Farage come along, tell them who to blame (hint, not the rich people like him who are profiting off the suffering of the poor) to fix their problems.

In regards to no investment I am talking about infrastructure which has been lacking in this country for years now.

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u/AwkwardRooster 2d ago

Plenty of poor people who see it the same way as the other poster. Farage is an investment banker, born into the role. He doesn’t speak for anyone but his own, and he doesnt include your average white english person in that

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u/Heavy_Practice_6597 1d ago

Basically this. 

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u/CreditorsAndDebtors 2d ago

as well a large portion of the traditionalists of the working-class who now have the ability to vote "not Labour" as Reform lack the historical baggage that the Tories do.

Reform simply does populism better than either the Conservative Party or Labour.

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u/Dangerous-Branch-749 2d ago

I will never not laugh at the term "boriswave" as though it's some music microgenre

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u/Tapeworm1979 2d ago

It also comes down to something different. England isn't far off the US. The choice is labour or conservative. There's other smaller party's but they are also old and never really have a change. Farage also has the benefit of being well know. I couldn't even recognise any of the last pm's since Boris. Of course they will get into power, have no clue what they are doing and be out of power after a term and likely you won't hear of them much.

I know we vote for the party and not the leader but in reality the leader matters a lot.

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u/SignificanceOld1751 2d ago

"Right lads, that last lot that brought in all them forrinurs, what side were they again?"

"Right wing, Steve"

"More of that kind of thing then please"

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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 2d ago

Con and Lab are liberals. If the uniparty hasn't worked well (I won't opine as I'm not British), it's only logical to blame liberalism.

Corbyn with his "communism" and Farage with his "fascism" offer a real alternative for the working class.

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u/SignificanceOld1751 2d ago

Con and Lab are liberals has to be the most reductive and silly thing I've ever heard.

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u/militantcentre World Heritage United Kingdom 2d ago

Certainly liberal on the subject of immigration.

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u/SignificanceOld1751 1d ago

I think you'll find that was the Conservatives that oversaw the highest levels of migration - the Boris wave - this Labour government is far more authoritarian and has reduced total immigration numbers.

So yeah, not ideal, but improving.

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u/militantcentre World Heritage United Kingdom 1d ago

Did I say otherwise? The current scale of mass immigration was started by Blair, and has been scaled up ever since.

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u/Jebble 2d ago

Boris didn't increase immigration, immigration in Europe massive increased whilst Boris was PM. Two very different things.

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u/thebonelessmaori England 2d ago

Didn't Boris Champion leaving the EU to take back control of our borders and failed to do so? Blame Boris dude. It's not Europe's fault it's his.

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u/Jebble 2d ago

As did half of all politicians. Nobody is blaming Europe so not sure why you're suddenly adding them into the discussion, but nothing would have been different if any other Tory would have been PM. You quite literally can't blame a single politician for anything when the party is running the country.

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u/thebonelessmaori England 2d ago

The guy above me that I replied to, just did blame the EU and Europe. I'm literally responding to that claim.

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u/Jebble 2d ago

Then reply to them, not me.

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u/militantcentre World Heritage United Kingdom 2d ago

You're the one spouting nonsense.

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u/thebonelessmaori England 2d ago

Oh you're the person I responded to. You made the comment. You stand by it. Boris as a single entity swayed the public to vote for Brexit along with farage due to russian influence. Not party, persons. They are traitors and should be tried as such. You are also a traitor for believing this dross.

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u/Jebble 2d ago

That is not the comment I made at all...

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u/thebonelessmaori England 2d ago

"Boris didn't increase immigration, immigration in Europe massively increased" Aren't those your words?

Boris was the firgurehead for Brexit so he could gain power. He failed to close the borders. Upon leaving the EU the European immigration stopped and India, Pakistan etc immigration increased (legal immigration, let's ignore the boats, dog whistle for now) more so than what European immigration numbers were. He was the bloke responsible for this. He led the charge and ultimately fucked this country for decades. He wasn't the only one but was at the front so therefore the main fella needing a trip to the gallows.

So yes Boris did increase immigration from the countries all you brexiters didn't want.

Can I have your phone number, I'm skint and could do with an easy target for a scam?

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u/Jebble 2d ago

Can I have your phone number, I'm skint and could do with an easy target for a scam?

There is absolutely no need to be rude, completely baseless asld hominem deflection.

The Tories are responsible for it, not just Boris. That shall I'm saying, it's not that difficult.

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u/wannacumnbeatmeoff 2d ago

Boris' policies ensured that less Europeans migrated to the UK whilst opening the doors to massively increased immigration from India, Pakistan and Africa. Don't kid yourself.

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u/Jebble 2d ago edited 2d ago

That is the direct result of Brexit. Those policies weren't "Boris'" and would have happened irrespective of who would have been PM at the time. Do not kid yourself.

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u/WastePilot1744 2d ago

I'm as anti-Brexit as they come, but you've either misunderstood or misremembered...it wasn't accidental.

If anyone can dig up the article, Boris and Rishi had a piece in the FT in approx. 2020, where they boasted they would drive down employment costs, particularly in STEM industries.

That's exactly what happened once Boris removed the Resident Labour Market Test and lowered skilled worker Salary Thresholds and Visa Entry requirements to facilitate entry from non-EU (Commonwealth) sources.

Coupled with the bungled IR35 "Reform", the damage has been deep and widespread. Many high skilled workers (British and European) left the industries, left the country or retired etc.

It's a poorly kept secret within UK Pharma for example, that non-Indian workers cannot even get an interview for some of these roles...

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u/ConfusionGlobal2640 2d ago

And Boris was one of the major leaders of the leave campaign...

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u/Jebble 2d ago

Comprehensive reading is hard, I know.

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u/wannacumnbeatmeoff 1d ago

Comprehension, even harder.

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u/InternetSolid4166 2d ago

There is functionally unlimited demand for immigration to Europe. That is a constant. What changed was UK immigration policy. Boris made it easier to immigrate.

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u/DanzoKarma 2d ago

He (and Sunak) did increase immigration even if you just look at legal numbers. His policies were letting in nearly a million immigrants in a year in incredibly low skilled roles like restaurants and shops despite promising the opposite. 30k refugees is nowhere near the problem here compared to when Germany actually accepted huge refugee populations.

It was their only solution to anemic GDP growth due to their party refusing to invest for about 12 years then realising investment is good right as COVID hit.

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u/SensationDebit Wales 2d ago

What on earth are you talking about? The Boriswave was legal immigration, it had nothing to do with any increases in illegal or legal migration to Europe.

He chose to lower the requirements, and because of that, net migration increased to around 1 million a year, and that increase was purely non European.

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u/Jebble 2d ago

I never mentioned illegal in this discussion, so not sure why you think that's relevant. The UK needs immigration, it quite literally doesn't operate without it. Brexit resulted in the migration we want to end, so they had to come from somewhere else. The country voted for this, now deal with the consequences.

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u/Su_ButteredScone 2d ago

Boris made the decision to open the flood gates in 2021 because he wanted cheap labour at a time where Brits were demanding higher wages because the status quo changed due to the covid lockdowns. But he let way too many people into the country and now there's a severe lack of jobs, and too much competition bringing the wages down for everyone.

Also, instead of flooding the country with cheap labour, the government could make benefits stricter so that native Brits would need to get jobs.

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u/SensationDebit Wales 2d ago

The UK doesn't need immigration, especially at the levels they are currently at. The only ones calling for current levels or more immigration are massive corporations, Tories, Thatcherites, and for whatever reason, some left wing people who have abandoned the idea of supporting the working class.

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u/militantcentre World Heritage United Kingdom 2d ago

Completely, 100% incorrect.

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u/Quick-Taste4204 2d ago

Immigration went through the roof when brexit started

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u/Ok-Sun-8754 1d ago

The right wing riots were down to right wing agitators. I don’t think these people were examining statistical data regarding the demographic makeup of the UK before they threw a brick at a mosque. 

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u/dat_9600gt_user Lower Silesia (Poland) 2d ago

Now if only there was that strong of an electorate for Lib Dems

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u/militantcentre World Heritage United Kingdom 2d ago

The LibDems are the most laid back over immigration of all the parties. They never utter a word about it.

And I'm a LD voter (though how much longer remains to be seen).