r/europe • u/AlfredsChild England • 2d ago

News Reform takes shock 15-point lead over Labour as Farage dreams of winning power

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/reform-shock-15-point-lead-labour-farage-power-3887857
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u/off_of_is_incorrect 2d ago

Labour burnt a ton of their basic support group with the disability reforms (gone are your disabled voters now), the warm homes faff (gone are those who felt it was correct, and those who were impacted by it) and now the tech savvy voters from the OSA.

They're just so, stupid.

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u/Freddies_Mercury 1d ago

They are systematically going through their voter bases and turning them off one by one.

Another vote group they turned off are the LGBTQ (and ally) voters. Nearly everyone in the community is horrified by Labour's crusade against trans people to exclude them from public life and enabling systemic discrimination.

It genuinely feels like they've done all this alienation on behalf of some very rich donors who want to see reform win the next election.

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u/Sacaron_R3 1d ago

The very rich donors want Starmer to keep the seat warm for the tories, and for him to prevent any possible leftist ideas. Apart from a few lunatics and inbred nobility, I'd hope that even the 0,1% recognize that Farage in power would spell disaster.

They can ram through all the surveillance and privatisation they want with New Labour and Tories switching seats every few years, no need to support Reform for that. If anything, a new party introduces dangerous fringe elements into the equation.

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u/VeryMemorableWord 1d ago

But they are leftists, why would they not want more leftist ideas?

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u/CrimsonSpace19 United Kingdom 1d ago

Mostly because Labour...
A: are run by mostly centrist neoliberals who'd rather be a "big tent" party with no long term goals other than "stability" which is a holdover from Blair's era.

B: because they almost imploded when Corbyn (an actual lefty) was voted as leader, mostly from his naive views and childish stubbornness but also from a gigantic media attack campaign and a centre-right coup from inside the party.

C: They mostly listen to donors and think-tanks for their policy, as they culled a lot of the more grounded politicians they had over these past years.

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u/doublah England 1d ago

Labour haven't been leftists since New Labour came along in the 90s. They're fully commited to capitalism, even in cases like water where it's costing us billions extra every year.

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u/abdab336 1d ago

I hate that it’s the case, and I do personally think a lot of what they’ve done is unforgivable, but they’re getting their unpopular but “necessary” (in their eyes) policies out of the way early and relying on the British public having such short memories that they can throw in a few good ones in the final year/year and a half and winning their bases back.

I think they’ve overplayed their hand but time will tell. I disagree with the whole “both sides are all the same” trope but my God if Starmer isn’t doing everything he can do give the people who cry “uniparty” ammunition.

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u/Freddies_Mercury 1d ago

I think the problem with that is that for many of these unpopular policies the only way of bringing back the base is by completely backtracking on positions and policies.

Going back to the LGBTQ base, there's nothing they could do other than restore trans rights to win them back. No amount of pink washing can undo that reputational harm, they already played their hand with this by parroting the "we are treating everyone with dignity and respect"' line that isn't washing.

This isn't going to be easily swept under the rug when for those in the community the effects are very visible and real still. Just wait until we start seeing trans people arrested and charged for being in public toilets (via aggravated trespass charges).

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u/[deleted] 1d ago

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u/Freddies_Mercury 1d ago

The equalities and human rights commission who are leading the transphobic charge, are about to introduce segregationist guidance that excludes trans people from using ANY toilets with a sex marker next to the door. Yes that means for trans women they can't use the men's or the women's.

The equalities watchdog has everything to do with labour. The government just another approved a gender critical chairperson to take over and continue this. It is their main advisory body on human rights legislation and application.

The guidance will be given to the women and equalities minister (who is labour) to approve into law.

Labour could end this witch hunt at any moment but they do not want to.

Freedom of information request that proves the EHRC is giving undue bias (such as only giving extended response opportunity to them) and attention to GC group "sex matters" to the point words verbatim from emails are appearing in official body copy releases.

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u/[deleted] 1d ago

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u/AntonioS3 Apulia 1d ago

This will sound very hypocritical coming from a disabled person, but I actually agree with the cuts to funds or benefits for disabled people.

Personally, I really don't want to be unfairly advantaged or something just because I'm disabled. I want to be able to pull up my own weight. I want to work on the same level as other people.

Nobody influenced me, I personally just have always wanted to not have to be benefitted compared to other people. I accept these cuts, because they are in a delicate government moment.

Also, regarding the LGBTQ stuff, while I disapprove of their discriminatory policies, the supreme court's ruling does give me the sense that their movement has been failing. But I think we'll forget about it in due time. There's another time for another victory elsewhere.

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u/Freddies_Mercury 1d ago

Ah yes so let's take away benefits of people that can't "pull up their own weight' because you can?

And second point, being transgender is not a movement it's a medical condition. Stop speaking for the LGBTQ community, this is now our main fight.

They have created the survival necessity for a trans rights movement because before the insane ruling that flouted all procedural rules and non bias obligations, trans people did have the full rights afforded to everyone else. It has enabled the government to pursue an anti trans agenda that goes far beyond what the ruling actually says.

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u/AntonioS3 Apulia 1d ago

First, my condolences to them. I sympatize with them. Unfortunately, I think a bit differently. It's a necessary thing in the wake of a tumultous period for UK economy. When the issue is fixed, then yes, let's get it back. But right now, I think hardship is better for myself at least.

Secondly. What I'm saying is that while it might have been a failure in that moment, there will always be many other opportunities to secure wins elsewhere, and make inclusion of LGBTQ much more accepted and encouraged. It just wasn't meant to be with that ruling. That's why I said I disapprove of their discriminatory policies. Atleast with Labour I can hope they will reconsider. In the meanwhile, I'm trying to fight from the sidelines by discussing to my friends about the problems LGBTQ face.

If it was Farage, or even a Tory leader, there is zero chance of this happening, zero compromise. They would actually persecute them.

Similar reason why I lost motivation in Palestine / Gaza issue. I can at least trust that Starmer will do something, it is a matter of time though.

But I have no hope when it comes to America whatsoever. For some reason Trump somehow managed to convince people, including some dumb leftists, that he was better for the policy than Harris. And now he's just letting the destruction happen, and there is no way to reason with him, if it was Harris we could've at least organized a protest.

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u/LeadSponge420 1d ago

People on the left voted for them. They didn't vote for Reform-lite. Why liberals always play against their base is baffling to me.

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u/RedstoneEnjoyer Slovakia 1d ago edited 1d ago

They're just so, stupid.

They are not stupid, it is intentional. Labour party is currently under control of people whose main mission is to ensure that another Corbyn will not happen again.

And if it means support base for Labour party will be permanently tanked, so be it.

Just look at their treatment of trans people - Labour party in 2025 is more conservative than Tories in 2017.

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u/hakun4matata 1d ago

Who controls the party currently? Genuine question.

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u/kingbluetit 1d ago

They’re trying to appeal to people who will never vote for them, and in doing so losing the only people who would ever vote for them.

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u/-The_Blazer- Europe 1d ago

There's something genuinely impressive with the way UK Labour manages to burn up their entire consensus in like one year after winning elections.

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u/InterviewOk1297 1d ago

Labour won the last election because everyone was tired of the shitshow from the Conservatives, but then Labour basically just continued the same shitshow. Now Reform will get into power and make everything even worse.

Its basically the same that is happening in Germany, every established party is just letting the country decay while the rich get richer, so people are willing to vote for a party (AFD) that is objectively even worse.

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u/mirithil Italy 1d ago

They’re only pandering to racists and pensioners

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u/Chester_roaster 2d ago

The UK was an outlier in disability claims. Either people in that country just happen to get disabled more often or there are more bogus claims that arent being investigated.