Let's hope Doug Jones acknowledges who really carried him and actually puts up an agenda to help these people in a deeply xenophobic, racist and sexist environment.
He said it in his victory speech. I mean, there's a ton more that he can acknowledge, but he couldn't have thanked them for his win any sooner than he did.
Or even if they stay GOP, they'll learn to like Jones. It got buried under the anti-Moore coverage (which rightfully deserved to be front-and-center), but Jones is an upstanding guy in his own right. And not just compared to a looney pedophile.
One of the things I remember (vaguely) from last night was about CHIP, which is one of those issues that affects a lot of African American communities in Alabama, so he was already pushing to help the people who voted for him.
He specifically called out the black community, Latinos, and Jews. While this victory definitely belongs to black Alabamans, I have to think the 10,000+ Jews in Birmingham probably helped too.
He also mentioned CHIP as one of his top priorities - a program that helps a great many impoverished African American families. It seems very obvious that he cares deeply about the black people struggling in his state.
Oh, he could get re-elected, this is with 30% black turnout, build some infrastructure and get it to 50% - we will be electing all kinds of Dems then. The Democratic party in Alabama has said for years it's possible if they could get some money and support.
I’m from South Carolina. It’s not possible here. It’s not like West Virginia where broad candidate infrastructure is buildable. Everything here is so divided on racial lines that no white conservatives will vote for Jones unless they have literally no other option (and as we saw here, even then only a few switched over).
But that's the thing, it's different in Alabama because 26% of their population is black. You don't need to turn out Republican moderates, just turn out POC and progressive white people. Trying to get those moderates is what has been killing us. There are over 1.2 million African Americans in Alabama, more than enough to swing any election. They do not vote because they don't believe in either Democrats or Republicans. They were given a reason to turn out this time, people went in their communities and asked for their vote.
higher turnout among your base can be a winning strategy, but it's tough in Alabama. The surge in black voting yesterday was a major deciding factor, but conservatives who could not stomach Roy Moore and stayed home or wrote in played a massive role too and this democratic victory could not have happened without both. In Alabama black people and progressives make up less than 50% of the population, so you really have to drive out the vote to overcome that difference if you're not going against someone who makes members of their own party stay home.
I hope it's a sort of energizing win that shows people that yes, races in Alabama can be won. People see that it's possible to win, so there's less of that feeling that it's not worth bothering because you can't make a difference.
If the GOP manages to nominate a complete fuck stick again in 2020 it will certainly be possible that he wins re-election. And that is a very real possibility. Another possibility is that the events of the next 2 years could see the GOP completely fracture to the degree that you see the conservative vote being split with a third party or independent candidates who could also win Jones reelection.
I think the establishment is right on this one. Trying to blame this on McConnell is just ridiculous. He made it very clear from the start that he didn't think Roy Moore was a good candidate for the party and he proved to be correct.
from the perspective of the Bannon wing, if the entire republican party gave a full throated support then Moore would have won, hence why they are blaming the establishment republicans who did not support him.
I'm also from South Carolina and I think it's possible. Fritz Hollings, a Democrat, was senator from 1966-2005. Jim Hodges, another Democrat, was governor from 199-2003. If enough black people turned out, I think they could elect a Democrat again. And SC has about the same percentage of black residents as Alabama.
I don't want to agree with you, but everyone I know who works in elections will tell you without hesitation that South Carolina is the toughest nut to crack in this whole country. More so even than West Virginia. The ordinary rules of time and space are suspended in your state. The entire plot of House of Cards is based on the politics of SC, which is the main reason it's considered believable. Nobody understands South Carolina except South Carolinians.
Let me take a look at the numbers again and adjust, but my point still stands in that there are 1.2 million eligible African American voters in Alabama and they make up over 26% of Alabama's population. We had 1.3 million votes cast in this special election. The numbers are there to swing state-wide elections, and other states in the South have even more favorable demographics.
Oh my god, I was the one who misread the article. Black turnout was at 75% of the 2016 turnout. Christ, that's a terrible way to present turnout numbers.
Going by your numbers ~30% looks like a good estimate.
Oh, he could get re-elected, this is with 30% black turnout
...and a pedophile as the GOP candidate. I'm really wary of seeing this as much more than a lucky break for the Democrats, things would not have shook out this way if Moore was even slightly less odious.
The article is straight up misleading that it was black voters. You could say the same thing about the Republicans who did a write-in candidate (22,800 of them), or the Republicans who stayed home instead of going to the polls, but a biased article on thinkprogress isn't going to do that. The analysis in that article is useless without a comparison to previous elections. The NYT site has a bit more data in case you are interested in forming a slightly more informed opinion.
First of all, fuck off donald user. How are you saying someone else is biased?
Secondly, black women went 97% for Jones, black men 91% while Whites went for Moore more often than not. Also, black turnout is way up since last election. So you're just wrong.
yeah, using an ad hominem attack and insults because the facts don't back you up? I think we know who has won this argument.
Then cherry-picking data without comparison to previous elections.
People like you are the bane of true liberals. And I'm sure you can't possibly imagine how Trump got elected. Maybe it's because of too many people like you.
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u/[deleted] Dec 13 '17
Let's hope Doug Jones acknowledges who really carried him and actually puts up an agenda to help these people in a deeply xenophobic, racist and sexist environment.