Oh, he could get re-elected, this is with 30% black turnout, build some infrastructure and get it to 50% - we will be electing all kinds of Dems then. The Democratic party in Alabama has said for years it's possible if they could get some money and support.
I’m from South Carolina. It’s not possible here. It’s not like West Virginia where broad candidate infrastructure is buildable. Everything here is so divided on racial lines that no white conservatives will vote for Jones unless they have literally no other option (and as we saw here, even then only a few switched over).
But that's the thing, it's different in Alabama because 26% of their population is black. You don't need to turn out Republican moderates, just turn out POC and progressive white people. Trying to get those moderates is what has been killing us. There are over 1.2 million African Americans in Alabama, more than enough to swing any election. They do not vote because they don't believe in either Democrats or Republicans. They were given a reason to turn out this time, people went in their communities and asked for their vote.
higher turnout among your base can be a winning strategy, but it's tough in Alabama. The surge in black voting yesterday was a major deciding factor, but conservatives who could not stomach Roy Moore and stayed home or wrote in played a massive role too and this democratic victory could not have happened without both. In Alabama black people and progressives make up less than 50% of the population, so you really have to drive out the vote to overcome that difference if you're not going against someone who makes members of their own party stay home.
I hope it's a sort of energizing win that shows people that yes, races in Alabama can be won. People see that it's possible to win, so there's less of that feeling that it's not worth bothering because you can't make a difference.
If the GOP manages to nominate a complete fuck stick again in 2020 it will certainly be possible that he wins re-election. And that is a very real possibility. Another possibility is that the events of the next 2 years could see the GOP completely fracture to the degree that you see the conservative vote being split with a third party or independent candidates who could also win Jones reelection.
I think the establishment is right on this one. Trying to blame this on McConnell is just ridiculous. He made it very clear from the start that he didn't think Roy Moore was a good candidate for the party and he proved to be correct.
from the perspective of the Bannon wing, if the entire republican party gave a full throated support then Moore would have won, hence why they are blaming the establishment republicans who did not support him.
I'm also from South Carolina and I think it's possible. Fritz Hollings, a Democrat, was senator from 1966-2005. Jim Hodges, another Democrat, was governor from 199-2003. If enough black people turned out, I think they could elect a Democrat again. And SC has about the same percentage of black residents as Alabama.
I don't want to agree with you, but everyone I know who works in elections will tell you without hesitation that South Carolina is the toughest nut to crack in this whole country. More so even than West Virginia. The ordinary rules of time and space are suspended in your state. The entire plot of House of Cards is based on the politics of SC, which is the main reason it's considered believable. Nobody understands South Carolina except South Carolinians.
Let me take a look at the numbers again and adjust, but my point still stands in that there are 1.2 million eligible African American voters in Alabama and they make up over 26% of Alabama's population. We had 1.3 million votes cast in this special election. The numbers are there to swing state-wide elections, and other states in the South have even more favorable demographics.
Oh my god, I was the one who misread the article. Black turnout was at 75% of the 2016 turnout. Christ, that's a terrible way to present turnout numbers.
Going by your numbers ~30% looks like a good estimate.
Oh, he could get re-elected, this is with 30% black turnout
...and a pedophile as the GOP candidate. I'm really wary of seeing this as much more than a lucky break for the Democrats, things would not have shook out this way if Moore was even slightly less odious.
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u/uma100 New Jersey Dec 13 '17
Oh, he could get re-elected, this is with 30% black turnout, build some infrastructure and get it to 50% - we will be electing all kinds of Dems then. The Democratic party in Alabama has said for years it's possible if they could get some money and support.