When democrats come out, we win. End of story. All the gerrymandering and vote suppression just make it so we have to work harder to less decisive victories, but in the end, voter participation has always been the death knell for GOP candidates.
This is just the beginning. If our country is to free itself of the Trump and GOP plague, we need to keep voting in all elections. Not just special elections, not just 2018 and 2020, but always be willing to go out and vote.
is not how you lose elections, it's how you kill nations
at least the malicious stand up and show their malice. you can fight them and defeat them
but what to do about this cancer of mindless cynicism that just bends over and accepts the malice and becomes willing slaves: what the fuck is that? how do you deal with that?
People need proof that their vote actually matters. Far too often, people don't vote because they know their vote barely matters, or doesn't at all. Not just because of the electoral configuration, but because representatives represent donors, which most constituents aren't.
I hit the voting booth for state/local propositions; I vote for president because I'm already there. I live in San Francisco. Once the primary is over, it's hard not to feel like my work is done.
However, I also stump pretty hard for the interstate voting compact. Trying to get some of that power back.
Problem is the people not voting are more than likely poorer people or they don't believe their voices will be heard. They tell their children this or focus on other things like feeding their children and making sure they can at least go to school. Along with that some people have a hard time registering to vote at all.
I believe the GOP suppresses the opportunity for people to get out vote on purpose. They know their demo are older white people they have the ability to ensure they vote. If we could potentially make it easier for everyone to vote we wouldn't be dealing with this in the first place cause it would swing drastically.
I did not have this from my parents, but somehow managed to get a very strong civic streak in me in spite of that, and have voted in every election since I turned 18 (not just presidential ones).
When I had my daughter in my early 20's, I started taking her with me. Even before she was really coherent. As she got older, I would explain the process to her, show her how I had my voter book marked with what I'd be voting on (because I research each person and ballot measure ahead of time), and show her how the voting machine worked. I let her push the vote button. I made sure she got a sticker (which was easy--the poll workers love seeing young faces!)
She isn't even sure she wants to get behind the wheel of a car, but she is excited for the day she can finally vote. And so am I.
Kids need enthusiastic support of voting and what it means to participate in the process. One more reason why I think we should be celebrating election day as a national holiday.
I’m actually an example of this. My parents always treated any election like a family event. My siblings and I are adults now and we haven’t missed any election we’re eligible to vote in.
my parents always vote. i remember them talking about voting and taking time to go out and vote since i was a little kid. the idea to me that there are some people who just never bother to go out and vote is SO WEIRD.
I totally agree with you here. However kids are impressionable. And this is how you end up with a kid in 7th grade that’s a conservative. Parroting all the conservative bullshit with no actual clue to what they’re saying.
Back in grade 7 I knew this kid that laughed in our faces when Harper was re-elected. Why did he like Harper? Because his parents told him too. Kids can’t form their own opinions on things like this.
Then I got to college, and the youngest kid in my class was conservative. Guess why? His parents were. Now that I can actually form coherent thoughts I asked him about his views. And guess what? Dudes kinda liberal. He just knows what he’s been told all his life. I told him the views he says he has don’t really align with his actions. That mostly the Conservative party is actively against his demographic. But he didn’t listen. Trudeau is still bad because mommy said so.
So while I agree on your early voting suggestion, I think independent opinions on matters like these are extremely important. Wether or not independent opinions are even possible at a certain age is a different discussion.
Make it so you can vote online from an app from your phone ? Maybe make it so you don't get signed up for jury duty if you want to vote ? Having to miss work just to vote or worry about how I'm going to pay my rent if i get called to jury duty isnt worth it to me.
Still though. The complacency of some eligible voters is disheartening. Even today some people in the office don’t bother because they truly believe they cannot make a difference.
Yup, the fallout of the collective experience both domestically and internationally will be something else...we are definitely heading to uncharted territory in U.S. history.
I honestly think it will be fine if we turn the ship around pretty quickly. The rest of the world will breathe a collective sigh of relief, and we'll get back to business as usual.
Trumps presidency was decided by a bit more than 77000 votes across 3 states. That's 0.0002333% of the current US population. I feel like thats a good rebuttal to that argument.
When i read how many votes trump won by i was blown away. One state was only 10k votes in favor of trump. Insanity. Its easy to find the exact numbers if you need em.
I used to be like that. Now, as long as I live, I will never miss another election. Last November in Texas we had a special election. No person was on the ballot, only referendums, but I still got out there and voted.
My fiance didn't want to vote lat month here in PA cause it was rainy and like 6:30 p.m. I told her I was going with or without her. She ended up going with me. I was pretty annoyed when she was about to bail.
A lot of people need help understanding the impact that Senate, House and local elections have. I live in a purple county in a very blue state. I know a lot of people that didn't vote in 2016 because it was a foregone conclusion that Clinton would carry the state. Because of that a Republic won our House seat by 50k votes.
He's trapped. He has no support except for the hardcore Republican base. They support him precisely because he spouts a continuous stream horrible, hateful shit. But that stream of shit turns off a lot of people in the center, and it energizes Democrats. But if he cuts down on the stream of hateful shit, the psychos will soften in their support for him. It's a trap.
He favors Israel for two reasons, neither of which are for the love the Jewish people.
The apocalyptic Christian sects that he needs the support of need to see the establishment of the "greater Israel" with it's biblical boundaries for the "second coming" to begin. These people are trying to bring about "judgement day" as described in the book of Revelations.
Trump is great admirer of right wing tyrants and Bibi Netanyahu fits that mold pretty well.
Sure, but 9 years ago we elected the first black president and look where we are now. It's a very nice win, but complacency put us in the position we are in now.
Yes, but we are also given a constant stream of things to be mad about every single day. The news just keeps coming at a pace that we've never seen before. That might be enough to keep people from becoming complacent, but only time will tell.
Yes, but we are also given a constant stream of things to be mad about every single day
Yeah, which is exactly what's been happening on the right for decades. Fox news, Breitbart, Infowars, it's all a constant stream of bullshit that induces rage in the right-wing.
They're being told every day, "better get out and vote or these democrats will kill babies!", "get out and vote or these democrats will let terrorists in to the country!", "get out and vote or these democrats will let illegals in to the country to steal your jobs!", "get out and vote or these democrats will steal your hard earned money and give it to undeserving welfare queens who will spend it on booze and drugs!"
The right is fueled by outrage, and that's why they actually get out and vote. It doesn't matter that their outrage is manufactured, it's effective.
I'm 27, and up until the 2016 election I had previously only voted in the Presidential elections of 2008 and 2012. No more. I will now vote in every single election at every single level of government for the rest of my life. It's a somewhat meaningless gesture, living in Boston, but it's something I plan on making a life long habit of. I'd wager I'm not alone.
Thank you Grace, but I think you're wrong. It's precisely the us vs them mentally that got the pivotal voters out this time. Think about the fact that Roy Moore was flat-out labeled as a pedophile and how the democrats fucking hammered that label hard. It was a page straight from the GOP playbook. The guy was very unqualified to hold the position he was campaigning for for a litany of reasons, but the pedophile angle was the dominant one. We did an amazing job of making his name synonymous with creeping for underage tail. If this is the way things are going to be in order for us to reclaim a solid hold on our government, so be it.
Literacy tests, black votes didn’t count as full votes, harassment at voting centers, etc. IIRC, one of the main reasons the KKK gained traction was because of blacks receiving rights. The law (begrudgingly, it was more of a political power move) stated that black men could vote legally, but much of society saw it as unacceptable that lesser humans be treated equally.
Obama is probably the most beautiful speaking president I have been alive to see. He’s clear, concise, always looks authoritative and in control of the situation. He was presidential.
That may be partially true, but there are a lot of people on both sides who really didn't like Hillary and that's also part of why they didn't turn out. They didn't think Trump could possibly win and didn't want to vote for Hillary. Though her being a woman was a sadly a factor for some, for those who could have made the difference, it was about her being her.
I would argue the party leaders had a lot more to do with where we are than the voters themselves. It's hard to get masses of people to go out and vote when theres no message behind it other than "at least we aren't Republicans". Hopefully this year has been a wake up call for both the base AND the establishment.
A democrat was just elected to a seat that has been held by republicans for 25 years. I don't think the attention span is that short.
Against a republican when the republican president has a historic disapproval rating.
Against a republican with a child molestation scandal brewing.
Against a republican who said the 1850s were the last time America was great.
Against a republican who wants to toss out every amendment after 10 (bringing back slavery?)
Against a republican who was tossed from his judicial office twice - because of violating the constitution.
My point is - there was SO much fodder against Moore. And we BARELY squeaked a win out. Yes, it's a great win, I'm thrilled. But Do. Not. Get. Complacent. Do not assume that things are 'changing'
We still have shit attention spans. We still have an uphill battle. Do not sit down. Keep fighting.
The sad part is that out of all those things you mentioned, the only reason Moore lost was because of the child sexual assault, when he should have been rejected by voters before those allegations came up.
If it was any other candidate with the same political views, they would have won.
Roy Moore was not even liked by the Alabama GOP. But, his one and only saving grace (in the eyes of most of the Alabama GOP) is he is anti-abortion. I heard it said that this election came down to whether you're "pro-child molestation" or "pro-baby killing."
Sign me up for baby killing. Overpopulation is a worldwide problem. Plus it's probably kinder to kill someone as a baby than to let them grow up to be molested as a teenager and then see their abuser lauded as a great man.
(00:28) Judge Roy Moore stands for protection (for) ... the rights of babies like your eight month baby that you're carrying now. Doug Jones says you can take the life of that baby..."
idk man, for Alabama it's pretty remarkable. It is sad that the bar is so low - a pedophile barely lost a senate race - but that 1.5% margin of victory means something. It shows the cracks in the GOP machine, they are tearing themselves apart - I hope this is some foreshadowing for fall 2018.
You think that Alabama voters would reject a candidate for expressing anti-abortion, anti-gay, anti-Muslim rhetoric? Why on earth do you think they'd do that?
Yes to all of the things you said, and yet, Moore still got 650,000 votes compared to Jones' 671,000.
Yes, it was a victory for common sense, and non-pedophiles everywhere, but 650,000 people would still rather vote for a regressive anti-human rights child predator than a Democrat.
Yeah, but also this was Alabama. We should ALWAYS have a candidate opposing the Republican, but we can’t expect to win those. The fact that this can happen in Alabama is heartening for the rest of the country. There are tons of states that are republican controller and shouldn’t be: Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, the middle states, we have to win there. The strategy moving forward needs to push always at all levels of government. Especially leading into 2020. We have to win big to break gerrymandering and set up a fair electoral system.
Barely squeaked out a win in a state that was roughly +30% for Trump a year ago. If this 15%ish shift can be maintained for the next 11 months (and as more comes out about Trump, and the Republicans keep pushing shit like their garbage tax scam and anti-net-neutrality, and the Bannon/Trump folks keep talking, that's likely) then November 2018 will go well for Democrats.
Sane Republicans will be demoralized. Normal Republican donors will be hesitant. Democrats will be energized and engaged.
The Democrat won by a very narrow margin against the devil. Literally, the WORST republicans could offer.
Honestly most every Republican I know see this as a HUGE victory. They pretty much know now they will win every election they put a decent candidate for.
Thank you. The fact that in the end it was about 1% difference in the vote is insane. It wasn't that Republicans voted for Jones. They just stayed home because the didn't want to vote for a child molester.
You are absolutely correct. As much as I'd love for this to be the start of a trend, I feel like its more of an isolated event. Moore had too much baggage that could not be ignored by even the most loyal Republicans.
We forget how Republicans who are born and raised in the South are immediately indoctrinated into thinking our country should operate on borderline theocratic standards. It will take A LOT for this brainwashed demographic to vote for future Democrats who are pro-choice and are open to other religions in America. A common theme I saw during this AL election was this demographic believing the absurd strawman that Doug Jones was a fanatical pro-abortion advocate who endorsed aborting babies right up until birth. This is a lie that their right-wing echo chambers planted into their heads.
All future Dem candidates need to distinguish they are pro-choice, NOT pro-abortion and that blue states where abortion is legal actually have LESS abortions than red states where sex education lacks and is looked down upon.
That makes it all the more frustrating because many who voted for Moore hold the opinion that any R is better than any D, no matter their history. I don't even know how to convince my "conservative" family that Democrats aren't demons.
OK, but for that Democrat to be elected, the GOP had to run a pedo. And he still almost got half the vote. The black voters did not swing this election. Some conservatives that found a conscience somewhere in the dark recesses of the attic won this election.
I mean, you'd have to compare that to the black vote the last time a Republican won the seat. The difference could just as easily be that more whites voted blue than normal.
Not even just the first dem in 25 years. The last time dems were in there they were Dixiecrats that were exactly like Moore. This is the first time someone from the other ideology of the US has served AL in the Senate since the US government had Willard Warner (who had just served as an OH state senator) finish out a former Confederate's term in 1868.
Did you miss the fact that 600k people still voted for a racist pedophile? Yeah, it's a huge victory, but it was still close and hopefully this is a step in the right direction and not the high watermark.
You don’t always have a candidate like Moore to inspire GOTV, I think the women who exposed him deserve the credit for this win. Much more than Jones.
How do you replicate those numbers? Why couldn’t HRC do it? These are important questions to do better in 2018 and beyond.
Liberals were the second strongest bloc for Jones, moderates not so much. Also more voters identified themselves as liberal in AL, than ever before. And young voters also heavily favored Jones.
How do we GOTV across the board? I don’t know that this election strategy can ever be replicated, Moore was such a colossally awful person.
In Alabama, Jones was never a safe bet. In fact, I know I'm not the only one expecting to be unsurprised but disappointed at a Moore win. So the importance of voting if you didn't want Moore was very obvious.
With Trump, no one expected him to win. The narrative was Clinton would trounce him because who the hell would vote for him? So the republicans came out like they always do, and the democrats stayed home.
In 'bama, the republicans stayed home this time because Moore is so bad they didn't want to vote for him (but couldn't bring themselves to vote for a "dirty librul" either). Meanwhile Democrats were motivated to try to make sure a child molester didn't make it in to office.
There was a lot of phone banking to inform voters (many didn't even know this election was happening), and a lot of efforts to physically get people to polling places. We need to get people to the polls in 2018 in the same way. Physically drag them there.
Everyone has to call/text friends and family about voting, make it a group thing. Go vote and then head to lunch/dinner. Turn this in to a national holiday where we vote and then celebrate democracy in action. MOTIVATE people to WANT to vote. Even if they're just doing it to get you to stop pestering them ;)
We need to teach civics and civic duty in High School. Most kids don't vote. They aren't familiar with what to do, where to go, what to expect and just don't think about it much. Nor do they pay much attention to news.
This is a multi-generational thing. Their parents didn't have civics courses and not voting is being handed down.
I've never voted before but all this bullshit going on in America has showed me just how insanely important it is. I plan on voting in every election from the local level up from here on out.
Hopefully a victory in a state like Alabama will help other potential blue voters in otherwise red districts come out and try to make a difference on election day.
And we start by convincing all the disenfranchised communities in this nation that it's worth it. That real change is possible (if slow) when they turn out. And that's not to underestimate the very effective campaign that the GOP has waged to make that difficult or nearly impossible. In many of these communities, it's not just a trip down the street before or after (or during, with pay) work hours. Many times people don't vote because it's been made all but impossible to do so, and efforts continue to make it harder. If the Democrats manage to regain control, voting rights need some serious shoring up.
That is absolutely true, then you look at the last city council election in my major city a quite important one and see turnout was 27% because there were no state or national races...
Yes. This message needs to be hammered home every single election. In future years we can say: Do you want another Trump? A reminder of this horrible time should be all that is needed to motivate Dems as along as we run a solid candidate.
This is massive indeed. Alabama man....who would've thought? You can't help but wonder if we still would have won if the republican candidate wasn't a pos?
Because it's been proven time and time again, especially in this political climate that republicans will vote R no matter what...it's party before anything.
That's why I don't think it even mattered that he had all these crazy allegations that he was most definitely guilty of btw, but it's hard to imagine people not voting for him because of this.
Black voters showed up and that's what swayed it so....not sure what that has to do with the allegations...
Not just about Democrats or sides winning. A proper democracy needs the vast majority of the population to vote in order to work and make sense. If the vast majority of the population does vote Republican, then so be it. But when the elections are won by a voting bloc that comprised of only 30% of the country in a non-representative, 2 party system, then it only serves to weaken the concept of democracy, regardless of who the 30% voted for.
Heck I would go as far as to say that had we had a much larger turnout, we would have never gotten here in the first place. Studies show that low voter turnout actually contributes to our political polarization.
The election is halted, and nominations must be re-submitted, preferably with completely new nominees. after a period of a few weeks for new campaigning, another vote takes place and we try again and again until the parties decide to get their heads out of their asses and put forward good candidates, not just whatever stooge will work for the donors.
Elections typically take place quite a while before their inauguration. there's time enough for 2 or even 3 re-runs before the inauguration. you could even bump the election up a little earlier just to increase that buffer. in the event that there are too many re-runs and it runs over inauguration day, the seat is left vacant until we can sort it out. i know that sounds scary, but it's not so bad, it just means, in some cases, the government won't be able to pass anything until it's resolved.
New election, the two people running are executed for Senate seats and the president, offices below that are barred from holding public office below that.
That's why i mentioned the "no confidence" option. voting would be mandatory for all able citizens, but you would also have the option to vote "no confidence." which is like saying "none of the above." if "no confidence" gets a large enough vote, then the election is sacked, and must be re-run with completely new nominees. this would eliminate the "lesser of two evils" bullshit and force whatever parties exist to put forward good candidates.
i get that, but we've got a very real problem with corruption in this country. The goal of Russia's election meddling was to erode, and in some cases outright destroy, the average american's trust in his electoral system. We're expecting to see foul play in almost every contentious election now. In a climate like that, the less complicated the system, the better. Once the Average american can have his faith in the system restored (if it ever can be), then moving to a system like what you described would be a good idea. Right now, though, I fear all that would be treated as if it were too obscured and easy to game. It might actually create more voter apathy, not less. Don't forget, that most americans are uneducated and don't really get what's going on in their government a lot of the time. right now, they understand 'vote for that guy, that guy wins.' but if you go all jeffersonian on them they're going to feel like they're playing baccarat and losing at every hand.
I'm curious, has there been any studies on the popularity of this idea? Is this something that dems want but Republicans refuse to go for, or is this something that everyone wants but the politicians (who would lose their jobs) refuse to go for? Or is this something that most people just don't think about?
It seems to be pretty much impossible for any reasonable person to NOT agree that changing from first past the post is a good idea.
I haven't read studies but it's certainly an idea that pops up on the internet a lot. make of that what you will. It seems to me like politicians in general would not be threatened by this idea, but that it would require amendments to the constitution to get done. in this deeply partisan era, that's basically impossible. I think people don't talk about it for two reasons: 1) as stated above, it's very difficult, and people don't want to waste their breath and time on it. and 2) the concept itself is seen as "complicated" by an electorate that is, by and large, poorly educated and unable to spend their bankrupt attention spans on the mechanics of a system like ranked choice voting.
for those two reasons, if you tried to campaign for something like this, I think the predominant response you would get would be a "shrug."
not enough. people would rather binge Orange is the New Black and grill hamburgers than vote on a day off. it needs to be compulsory, as in failing to cast your vote comes with a big fat fucking fine, that you get back on your tax return if you prove that you voted consistently for the following year, or something like that.
Get paid to vote, or get fined if you don't. And voting is a 2 day holiday, employers cannot compel you to be at work unless you're in critical services (hospital, police, etc., hence the 2 day holiday so they can split shift and get time to go vote). I would happily give a ride to someone who wants to vote if they can't get to a voting station on their own, where I live you typically have to drive a while to get to a voting station and there is no public transportation to get you there. We need to do something to get people to the polling stations, we need to make it a "no excuses" sort of thing (I guess if you're in the hospital having surgery or doing surgery you have an excuse) as much as possible. Single Transferable Vote would also be a damned fine idea instead of First Past the Post.
Studies show that low voter turnout actually contributes to our political polarization.
Well sure. The radicals of all sides will always show up, so as voter turnout decreases, extreme viewpoints will become a larger and larger proportion of the remaining votes. If that becomes a trend rather than an anomaly, the political landscape will shift to disproportionately represent those extremes, eventually ending up where we are now.
Education is as important as the need to separate religion from politics imo. It's easy to point out how uneducated the "Base" may seem but that doesn't matter when they are voting for Jesus.
A proper democracy needs the vast majority of the population to vote in order to work and make sense.
90% of the trouble in this country could be resolved with the following ballot reforms:
Vote by mail
Mandatory voting
Instant runoff voting (or literally any other system besides first-past-the-post)
And before anyone jumps in here with the free speech argument against mandatory voting, a "no confidence" option still gives voters the freedom to choose not to participate. The point is that everyone needs to make that choice affirmatively, rather than simply not showing up.
Jones campaign had a huge GOTV operation. That's the playbook. Compete everywhere, and get the vote out. Canvas everywhere. Everyone on this sub is way too informed politically to just vote. We all have to canvass in 2018.
When you close 860 polling places it makes it kind of hard, assuming you're not already emotionally exhausted by the year and change of political ads/mudslinging/blatant misinformation.
Then let's get people out there to give rides to the other polling stations. We need to take our country back, even if it will be hard work. Let's just do it anyway. Once we do the hard work a couple of times, we can get decency and democracy back and open those polling stations.
The dems are not entitled to peoples vote just because they are the least worst option. They need to seriously propose a real platform to change peoples lives not just expect them to vote cuz dems
I totally agree. However, there is a lot of voter apathy out there because many people just assume that their state or district will be red. I am saying it does not have to be red.
Ehh, on the one hand you're right that just being the lesser evil isn't really good enough. On the other hand that's a bit like saying I might as well smoke cyanide because cigarettes are bad too.
It’s not getting the DEMS out so much, I don’t think. I think there is a significant number of people who are like me in that: I line up better with dems than I do GOP, but I still don’t line up with them all that well.
So it’s usually like this: I really don’t like that republican candidate, but I’m not too excited about this democrat either. We need two more parties IMO. Having a libertarian and a green made me quite happy this last general election. I just want to see those 4 options for Congress candidates as well.
Democratic Party needs to field appealing candidates and do more to energize voters, instead of relying only on the extreme odiousness of their opponents like (case in point: Moore or Trump) to boost turnout.
Running bland, non-charismatic, unlikable establishment candidates like Hillary Clinton (or John Kerry back in the day) is what gets people to stay home.
Much as I dislike the Republican agenda, at least they do a good job of running candidates that get people excited and motivated... not just enough to get out and vote, but also to overlook extremely serious flaws.
You're absolutely right. Dems need to show up. To often, we don't, and Republican turnout rarely changes year to year. Did you know Republicans are more likely to win when it's raining? They still show up.
Republican politicians have proven time and again that they won't represent the disenfranchised. If you care about the poor and minorities, and you aren't one of those things, you have to get out and vote every damn time. Those people may not have the same opportunities as you, they may have work or have trouble accessing polling places. Get out and vote, people.
Start by making polling day a national/state holiday.
Then you don't have to work about swapping shifts out finding childcare.
You have the day off work, your kids are out of school. Take them to the polls and show them the Democratic process of voting.
My dad took me and my 3 sisters to vote with him every 4 years. And he told us how important it was. He also told me the first time I went behind the curtain "first look office all the people with a star by their name. They are there incumbent and we vote for them to stay. Then you look for the ones with an R by their name." And that life lesson has stuck with me.
Not in the sense that that's how I vote. But it helps me understand where party line voters are coming from. "That's just how we do it, son,"
Florida, too. I have been voting by absentee ballot for years now. We also have early voting so that people have more time and chances to fit voting into their schedule. I wish all states had those options in addition to requiring employers to work with their employees to make it easy for them to take time off to go to the polls.
It's crazy how much we take for granted something that people in the past (not just the US Revolution) fought and died over.
People lined up on battlefields and went to work murdering each other all because they wanted a voice in their system of government and now (in the US at least) the majority of us can't be bothered to drop by before or after work.
Devils advocate: they fought for the RIGHT to vote, that doesn't necessarily mean that everyone should vote. I'm heavily in favor of uninformed people choosing not to vote. I also think people that don't vote and aren't interested in politics would still fight for that right if it was taken away.
That's the problem. Many uninformed people are unaware and will vote anyway. I'm not trying to offer a solution. We shouldn't disallow the uninformed, just ideally they would choose not to. I know people with this level of self awareness.
When Dems start "showing up" to run candidates for every single office, voters will be able to vote for Democrats.
Too often, Dems just abandon ship, leaving an uncontested Republican candidate, so what's the point in showing up?
Don't blame the voters for that. That's the Democrat's fault.
When filing deadlines had passed in the first 27 states this year, one party or the other had failed to run candidates in nearly half the legislative seats -- 45 percent, according to Ballotpedia, an online politics site that tracks races and ballot initiatives. Nearly all incumbents can rest easy in Georgia, because 80 percent of the races there will be uncontested.
(from June 2016 http://www.governing.com/topics/elections/gov-uncontested-legislative-races.html)
I live in a blue state, but very red district. For a long time the state party hasn't bothered to even field dem candidates in my district for the state house of delegates. "Dems can't win there" so they focus on winnable/"competitive" districts.
But when I looked at the numbers for the last election for those state seats, it is ALL a turnout game. There are FAR more registered democrats in my district than republicans (and based on development and demographic changes, I'm willing to bet that registered dem numbers have gone up while Rs have remained static or only shifted slightly). In the last election, the R's had a 67% voter turnout. Dems around 50%. When I crunched the numbers, it looks like democrats only have to increase to about 55% to turn the district.
Taking into account libertarians and conservative independents would probably push up the number needed a bit, but those groups are pretty small.
Suddenly, all the R bluster opposing low income housing and public transportation in our district makes sense. They say it's about drug crime, but most of that is actually centered in long-existing blue collar white communities. They know how the numbers add up. All it takes is motivation in the right communities and they're out (and they should be - our R delegates are absolutely horrible, straight out of Trump radio, obvious, blatant, unapologetic racism, etc...).
You're absolutely right. Dems need to show up. To often, we don't, and Republican turnout rarely changes year to year. Did you know Republicans are more likely to win when it's raining? They still show up.
I hope you don't think this is just laziness. The Republican base is much more able to get to polls because demographically they have more seniors (who are retired and can spend all day voting) and people who are in jobs with flexibility to go vote.
Of course, and that's because right-wing voters have been traditionally far more diligent than left-wing voters at actually voting. The right will vote for "their" candidate even if they disagree with them on many topics. The left will pick and choose, often splitting the vote (in multiparty systems) or throwing their vote (in two-party systems). The more progressive demographics, like young adults, also tend to have much lower participation on average.
When voter participation increases, it usually is dramatically in favor of progressive candidates.
Though I think you are generally correct, it's the next level down that matters. Dems need to really pick up their ground game - at the precinct level. They need to have voter registration drives, get out the vote campaigns and well trained poll watchers - in just about every voter precinct in the nation.
IMHO, the real story is that a Democrat won, in a deep red state - despite - GOP vote suppression tactics. This is the real story and it's going to get suppressed.
Also when moderate Republicans stay home because they can’t vote for either.
Increased turnout didn’t turn a typically +27 R race blue all by itself.
Depressing their own turnout is bad news as well as some R’s flipping sides lately. Basically everything that can go wrong in an election is for Republicans lately.
The narrative I’ve been hearing from Charles Barkley (who is from Alabama and campaigned heavily for Jones) and a few other pundits is that, when democrats make actual inroads to the Black community, those black voters come out to the polls. The anecdote that Barkley used was something like “black voters would love to go to the dance with you (democrats) but you’ve got to give us more than an hour to get ready”. In other words, when democrats actually pay attention to the needs and concerns of black voters and don’t just parachute in a week before an election (and take black votes for granted as reliably democrat) we get turnout. And we win.
About the same amount of democrats showed up yesterday, as in the general election. Buf half of the republicans who voted Trump, didnt vote for Moore. The democratic base in Alabama came out, as they do. The republican didnt, at all. Thats why you won.
When Jon Stewart left the daily show I felt like there was something missing. I loved his commentaries. After 2016 I felt like who can get me fired up again. I’m so proud of the grassroots movement. I listen to Pod Save America and follow grassroots twitter accounts. Seeing how aclu was making sure voter suppression didn’t happen. All eyes were on this special election. As my kids say, this makes my heart happy. So proud of everyone. Thank you black Woman for saving us and being the voice of reason. I hope this shows that Dems don’t need to cater to the white working class only.
This is true but turnout was heinous. I wish people would stop patting ANYONE on the back. 62% of the electorate sat at home and this was one by a razor-thin margin.
People want net-neutrality but don't fucking show up for any election.
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u/[deleted] Dec 13 '17
When democrats come out, we win. End of story. All the gerrymandering and vote suppression just make it so we have to work harder to less decisive victories, but in the end, voter participation has always been the death knell for GOP candidates.