r/politics • u/slaysia • Dec 19 '17

Democrat wins Va. House seat in recount by single vote; creating 50-50 tie in legislature

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/democrat-wins-va-house-seat-in-recount-by-single-vote-creating-50-50-tie-in-legislature/2017/12/19/3ff227ae-e43e-11e7-ab50-621fe0588340_story.html?utm_term=.82f2b85b50fa
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u/Larkin29 Dec 19 '17 edited Dec 19 '17

Ohioan here. For 2018 we've got at the very least one Senate race and one Governor race that will be close. Most of the congressional districts are too gerrymandered to do much; the only one I know of that actually has a real candidate on both sides is our 7th district.

Edit: Should add that the 7th is currently held by a Republican with a pretty strong Democrat challenger.

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u/HealzUGud Dec 19 '17

The thing to remember about Gerrymandering is it backfires spectacularly if there is a large enough shift in the voting demographics. It doesn't even have to be people changing who they vote for, even just motivated previously nonvoters can make a huge change.

Political engagement is up in the US, especially among those opposed to Trump and the GOP. This is when those safe districts are no longer safe and every vote counts.

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u/[deleted] Dec 19 '17

Ohio's pretty damn gerrymandered, though. They shoved half the democrats in the state into the 9th district to take down Dennis Kucinich.

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u/zelegp Ohio Dec 20 '17

You mean it's not normal to have a district 3 miles wide and 100 miles long?

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u/Przedrzag New Zealand Dec 20 '17

Newsflash: The country of Chile is gerrymandered! /s

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u/Rakaydos Dec 20 '17

Off topic, but you should check out a topographic map of chile. There's a reason the national border is on that mountian chain.

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u/Przedrzag New Zealand Dec 20 '17 edited Dec 20 '17

I know why the Chile border is like that. Mountains tend to get in the way of government administration.

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u/Rakaydos Dec 20 '17

Regular mountians are one thing, but THOSE mountians, no way.

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u/deathandtaxes00 Dec 19 '17

Yeah but they have to know that. I didn’t vote in many elections in Indiana because it was pointless. It took a pedophile to reverse 50 years of republicans in Alabama. We went blue for Obama because of two counties in 2008. Indiana is the home of the KKK. My point is that depending on your state and it’s make of people it’s pretty biased as to who wins elections. Vote for sure, but no one wants a tropical storm in their neighborhood. That’s why it takes so much time. Like it or not.

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u/[deleted] Dec 20 '17 edited Nov 07 '19

[deleted]

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u/chazysciota Virginia Dec 20 '17

Moore vs Jones was a perfect example of what a can happen when you put a terrible candidate up against a fantastic candidate.

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u/dbag127 Dec 20 '17

on what planet is Jones a fantastic candidate? He managed to piss of tons of black voters with his ad campaigns, and they're the ones who got him elected. If people weren't so pissed about moore, a lot more would have stayed at home.

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u/chazysciota Virginia Dec 20 '17

On what planet is that even a coherent thought? He pissed off black voters so bad that the voted for him to the tune of 95%?

If jones were a weak candidate Moore would have won despite being human garbage.

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u/dbag127 Dec 20 '17

his acceptance speech was already about making amends and reaching across the aisle. If that's what you think makes a fantastic Democratic candidate these days, 1995 is calling on your landline.

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u/the_other_tent Dec 20 '17

Jones was not a strong candidate. He barely won against a pedophile. I mean, I get the Dems did not expect to win the seat, and did not exactly send in the A team, but Jones was mediocre enough that he still almost lost.

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u/Rakaydos Dec 20 '17

Not a fair statement, because it was in ALABAMA. Jones got everyone who was capable of rational thought in the state, and he still almost lost.

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u/chazysciota Virginia Dec 20 '17

What is striking about this race is that they did send the A team, when conventional wisdom said they shouldn't. Sessions ran unopposed for fucks sake.

This is the mindset we are dealing with in Alabama.

"The abortion issue alone is enough to buy [Moore] a win," predicted Brent Buchanan, an Alabama GOP pollster and consultant. "That's the one nonnegotiable for social conservatives. You're not as hardcore on taxes. 'I can give up on that,' some voters might think. But when you're talking about somebody else's life, that's a whole different ballgame. And I think that's the big difference."

They believe abortion is worse than child molestation, and will vote accordingly. Applying your own sensibilities to a totally different worldview is myopic.

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u/digliciousdoggy Dec 19 '17

No one is safe, no gerrymandering is too much next year. NONE, NOWHERE, EVERY. SINGLE. SEAT.

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u/Atechiman Dec 20 '17

Using 2016's PVI, the 1st 2nd 5th 7th 10th 12th 14th 15th 16th are all winnable, with the 7th and 12th the hardest to flip. If the current trends in generic ballot continues, the 6th becomes vulnerable before november. I don't know enough about the indviduals and the issues for those districts, but remember right now any PVI of 13 or less is at least a 'toss-up' due to the generic ballot favoring dems by 11ish points.