r/politics • u/slaysia • Dec 19 '17

Democrat wins Va. House seat in recount by single vote; creating 50-50 tie in legislature

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/democrat-wins-va-house-seat-in-recount-by-single-vote-creating-50-50-tie-in-legislature/2017/12/19/3ff227ae-e43e-11e7-ab50-621fe0588340_story.html?utm_term=.82f2b85b50fa
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u/icedino Dec 19 '17

Oops! Fixed. I'm getting ahead of myself. I'm hoping Northam offers to promote a Republican from a competitive district to a cabinet position, opening the seat up to a special election that dems can flip.

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u/[deleted] Dec 19 '17

[deleted]

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u/icedino Dec 19 '17

It's not for the party, but for the individual. We've had it happen before to flip the Senate. It can be seen as a career boost to a candidate that narrowly won who doesn't want to deal with reelection.

Northam will likely attempt the same with the state senate. There are Republican incumbents in districts won by Clinton and Northam that could accept a promotion. The Senate also needs only one additional democrat to flip.

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u/thatgeekinit Colorado Dec 19 '17

Also it's a real job with a real salary because Delegated are only paid $17640 which is a big part of why political office is effectively closed to people who have to work to pay their bills.

The legislative session isn't all year like Congress but who can get their employer to let them furlough 90 days a year and campaign for 60 days every 2 years.

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u/[deleted] Dec 19 '17 edited Aug 28 '20

[deleted]

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u/TzunSu Dec 20 '17

What, you guys don't pay into your own pension?

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u/[deleted] Dec 19 '17

It’s still unlikely.

Plus the politics of it is transparent. So if you’re trying to get something passed, attempting to flip a house like that is going to sour that chance fast.

If they offer and the guy comes out and says “they wanted to steal my seat but I’m not having it” they’ve raised their profile and damaged Northam.

It’s unlikely. Could happen sure, but unlikely.

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u/gsfgf Georgia Dec 19 '17

Who gives a fuck how transparent it is if you pick up the seat? And Northam knows who would be interested in taking a job to free up a seat. It's not like he's going to send out an email to the Republican caucus offering judgeships for seats.

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u/[deleted] Dec 20 '17

It's still unlikely (aside from one of the seats that's guaranteed R even today). Four years in a Secretariat vs being a swing vote in the Senate? I don't know which is a better deal.

And there's definitely a risk. Northam should know, there were rumors the Republicans were targeting him for similar once.

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u/gsfgf Georgia Dec 20 '17

First, there's a reason that I expressly said judgeship in my post. That's the go to job offer from the Governor in my state. Judges rarely lose reelection, so that's basically a lifetime appointment.

But even overseeing an executive agency or sitting on the Board of Regents or whatever gets your foot in the door for a lot of very lucrative careers. As a legislator in the trenches, you're probably barely scraping by financially and, especially if you are seen as the swing vote, making lots of enemies. There's a reason that fancy state jobs are so attractive to legislators.

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u/[deleted] Dec 20 '17

Our judges aren't elected, but they'd have to be confirmed. The Executive Branch agencies are nice, but most states have governors capable of being re-elected, Virginia doesn't, so it's a 4 year job at most (unless the next governor decides to keep you). That hurt's a bit when trying to get the "lucrative career".

Finally our legislature is part time and paid peanuts (under $20,000 a year + per diem when session is on) the result being many of them have their own businesses or careers outside of the legislature. So you'd be running into the "take a mid-level executive agency, but give up your medical practice, or law firm" kind of issue.

As far as the swing vote people, they've had some power here. Even after pissing off their own party most stick around. Maybe that's going to change now,

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u/gsfgf Georgia Dec 20 '17

Depending on how confirmation works, that make a judgeship an even more appealing job. And I'd imagine that a legislator would have no issue with confirmation by his or her colleagues. (Unless confirmation is done on the ballot, but I'd imagine that's pretty much a guarantee.)

As for agency jobs, it's not necessarily the job itself, but the private sector opportunities it opens up on the other end.

And the citizen legislator thing is why the stability of an executive job is so appealing. Assuming VA is anything like my state, most legislators are struggling because it's hard to keep a business running when you have to spend three months away each year and campaign sometimes. There are a few legit rich guys in my state legislature, and a handful more that are essentially sponsored by their employers, but most of the rest are retired and/or struggling.

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u/TheButtonz Great Britain Dec 19 '17

I learned lots from this thread - thanks!

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u/Realtorandy Dec 20 '17

I don’t want to pass on rumors that I don’t know for sure but it has been strongly hinted that a particular Republican State Senator has already agreed to take a new post. Nothing is guaranteed but I would say that there is a strong likelihood of this happening.

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u/[deleted] Dec 20 '17

I've heard a few of those as well, but I don't buy them being gimme elections for Democrats to steal a seat.

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u/[deleted] Dec 20 '17

Hey, it worked for us Democrats in the US senate, had Sessions not been offered AG, he’d be sitting comfortably in the Senate, blindly pushing Trumps agenda through.

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u/[deleted] Dec 20 '17

There's a major difference there.

That's a Republican president offering a Republican Senator (who ran unopposed last time) a position from one of the most Republican states in the country. It was absolute madness that they couldn't hold that seat, and look what it took to barely unseat him. That was assumed "hey we can give him the AG and we'll get a new Republican in AL".

In Virginia it'd be a Democratic Governor, offering a position to a Republican in a toss-up district. That's harder to see. That'd be like Trump offering the AG to Manchin, assuring the Republicans of an extra Senator from WV. Much different scenario.

And if it's a Republican from a number of VA Senate Seats, they'll likely hold in a special election anyway, so it's still 21-19. Hard to see a Republican from a swing seat, that's leaning Democrat taking the offer and throwing the Senate to the Democrats unless they're super pissed off at the party.

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u/TzunSu Dec 20 '17

But you are forgetting that the people interested in taking this deal are likely to be people who stand a great risk of losing their next elections.

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u/[deleted] Dec 20 '17

At the same time they'd be hurting their bid for a higher office down the line, for a job that might not be better than what they have as their own job (on the side, since most Legislators also have a full time career).

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u/[deleted] Dec 20 '17

I know, the difference was that it was assumed Alabama would be a Republican hold for obvious reasons. Which makes it that much sweeter, the fact is it’s Trump fault, he loses a seat right before midterms, and his pick for attorney general has been a thorn in his side the entire time, it’s really poetic justice at it’s finest.

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u/[deleted] Dec 20 '17

No need to hope for that necessarily, right? There's still two more recounts ongoing as I understand it:

However two other recounts will decide the final tally in the House. The recounts for the 28th District in Stafford County and Fredericksburg and the 68th District in Richmond were scheduled for later this week.

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u/icedino Dec 20 '17

Democrat Dawn Adams leads over Republican Manoli Loupassi in the 68th by 332 votes iirc. Loupassi actually already conceded, but unconceded to push for the recount. I doubt this will change.

Democrat Josh Cole is behind 86 in the 28th, so I don't think much will change. Simmonds only won by 1 and Yancey's original lead was only 10 votes. The only way this seat can flip is if Josh Cole can win a court case prompting a special election rematch. There were precincts in his race where people from 2 separate districts could vote, and a couple hundred people were given the wrong ballot which is where the legal argument comes from.