r/politics • u/slaysia • Dec 19 '17

Democrat wins Va. House seat in recount by single vote; creating 50-50 tie in legislature

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/democrat-wins-va-house-seat-in-recount-by-single-vote-creating-50-50-tie-in-legislature/2017/12/19/3ff227ae-e43e-11e7-ab50-621fe0588340_story.html?utm_term=.82f2b85b50fa
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233

u/hunter15991 Illinois Dec 19 '17

Ohio in 2020

Arizona will be a swing state as well in 2018/2020, and we're a lot closer. Same with Nevada.

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u/jminuse Dec 19 '17

Arizona will have at least one senate race in 2018, maybe a double if McCain retires do to health. I would go there.

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u/TheMagicBola New York Dec 19 '17

There is a good possibility McCain will not survive that long and his seat will be up for a special election.

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u/jminuse Dec 19 '17

I think they would put the special election alongside the regular election at this point.

First, because it saves money to group them.

Second, because the governor is a Republican and knows that the Democrats would steamroll turnout at a special election on a random Tuesday. Rs have a slightly better shot at the regular election time, because then they only have to get their disgruntled base out once.

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u/gsfgf Georgia Dec 19 '17

AZ is an appointment state. So the Gov would appoint a Republican (can't change parties with an appointment under state law) who would then be up for election in the next general election (2018).

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u/bennwalton Dec 20 '17

The appointment must choose to run and win a primary. Luther Strange lost to Roy Moore in AL R primary

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u/aquarain I voted Dec 19 '17

If his progression is normal, John McCain won't see 2019.

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u/[deleted] Dec 19 '17

[deleted]

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u/[deleted] Dec 19 '17

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/Atechiman Dec 20 '17

Most don't, but Glioblastoma does. It affects parts of the brain directly associated with cognitive function. So yes, just a generic 'Brain Tumor' might not require him to be removed if he doesn't retire on his own, but Gliobastoma does.

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u/jminuse Dec 19 '17

If that's medically true, I agree, but I don't think it's true. So far he's been acting consistently with his history.

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u/Atechiman Dec 20 '17

It is medically true for the class of tumors he has. Its harsh to say, but its true.

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u/NapoleonBonerparts Florida Dec 19 '17

Nevada went blue. It's already a swing state.

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u/hunter15991 Illinois Dec 19 '17

Agreed, I'm just saying it will maintain that status next year.

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u/NapoleonBonerparts Florida Dec 19 '17

Oh, my bad. I misread. Agreed!

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u/ktngr413513 Nevada Dec 19 '17

i cannot WAIT to vote against dean fucking heller

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u/JormaxGreybeard Dec 19 '17

I'm moving to Arizona in a few months and I'll do what I can to make that state a little more blue.

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u/[deleted] Dec 20 '17

Nothing gets me giddier than hearing about Democratic voters moving to swing states.

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u/hunter15991 Illinois Dec 19 '17

PM me when you get here, and I can get you in touch with your local Dem group.

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u/InfinityMehEngine Dec 19 '17

Tucsonan checking in.....bring it on red team we are going to be swinging for the fences. I as well am going to be pouring tons of effort into a blue wave in 2018.

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u/Przedrzag New Zealand Dec 20 '17

Even Georgia could be a swing state in 2020

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u/[deleted] Dec 20 '17

Nevadan here and I have the utmost confidence we will be voting Dean Heller out of the Senate next year.

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u/ChungLing Arizona Dec 20 '17

Seriously, this matters. Arizona could potentially be electing both of its Senators in 2018, and if Democrats have a chance to pick up Flake's seat, there is a very, very real chance they could pick up McCain's in a special election too. Basically, if they win Flake's seat, they'll probably also win McCain's.

That's ignoring the fact that Kelli Ward is already a uniquely repulsive candidate to begin with, and in the wake of Moore, it's not unreasonable to suggest a similar effect will be at play, possibly driving turnout in a state with a 30% Latino population (Latinos made up about 18% of the electorate in 2016 but 21% of eligible voters- by now this could be higher). For reference the 2010 Census put Alabama's African-American population at about 26%, meaning that there is an even bigger opportunity in Arizona than Alabama at flipping one or both Senate seats.

Democrats better not fuck this up. Come here and put up a real fight this time. If Democrats actually tried in Arizona, they could win. In 2018 alone, the governorship, one (maybe two) open Senate seats and some of the most competitive-looking House districts in the country are all up.

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u/hunter15991 Illinois Dec 20 '17

Democrats better not fuck this up. Come here and put up a real fight this time. If Democrats actually tried in Arizona, they could win.

You best believe we are. Don't know about your local LD meetings (if you're not currently attending, PM me and I cant help you find one), but the meetings I've been to (and in other districts I have friends in) have grown 10-25x in terms of recurring members and volunteers.