r/politics • u/slaysia • Dec 19 '17

Democrat wins Va. House seat in recount by single vote; creating 50-50 tie in legislature

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/democrat-wins-va-house-seat-in-recount-by-single-vote-creating-50-50-tie-in-legislature/2017/12/19/3ff227ae-e43e-11e7-ab50-621fe0588340_story.html?utm_term=.82f2b85b50fa
64.6k Upvotes

88% Upvoted

3.6k comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

397

u/[deleted] Dec 19 '17

There will have to be a power sharing agreement.

But, there is still one district in question, district 28. The Republican leads by 82 votes, there is a recount on Thursday, and there is a hearing on January 5 to decide whether there should be a special election because 350 voters were misaligned in a different district and 147 cast ballots they shouldn't have, thanks to a clerical error by a now-deceased city clerk.

If there is a special election, Democrats will start the legislative session with a 50-49 lead, which should allow them to elect a Democratic leadership for the entire session. Even if there turns out to be a tie, any effort to remove a Speaker would need majority support, which the Republicans will not have. The election will decide whether Democrats have a 51-49 lead or a tie.

216

u/Eldurislol Dec 19 '17

That's given that the Dems are actually assertive with this advantage and don't let it waste away in the name of "fairness". You know the Repubs wouldn't think twice about using this small advantage.

144

u/amlybon Dec 19 '17

Dems already got like 53% of the votes, the fact that it's split like that is solely because gerrymandering.

15

u/hobovision Dec 20 '17 edited Dec 20 '17

Eh, 53% of the votes leading to 50% of the seats really is not too bad. There are many district drawing algorithms that won't lead to a better outcome. Gerrymandering is a huge problem, but it's really when you have a +10% lead to a minority of representation that it can definitely be blamed on partisan districting.

6

u/dittbub Dec 20 '17

depends what % repubs and independants got.

3

u/feanor0815 Dec 20 '17

but reps only got 43% of the vote... so its 10 points difference leading to a split house... this is fucked up! FirstPastThePost is stupid and evil!

3

u/hobovision Dec 20 '17

Well, shit, that's awful. That's exactly what gerrymandering does.

We need to move to some kind of proportional representation. Group like 3-5 reps/senators into one voting district and apportion them as close to the vote as possible.

-34

u/[deleted] Dec 19 '17

No. That's complete bullshit. It's because Dems run up margins in places like Alexandria and Fairfax. They win seats THEY drew for THEIR members with 80% of the vote.

56

u/joggle1 Colorado Dec 19 '17

They didn't draw the districts, the Republican legislature did. A critical technique of gerrymandering is called 'packing' where you place as many of your opponents into a single district as possible, hence why Democrats won some districts by 80% since they were strategically placed together, reducing their numbers in other districts that would otherwise be more competitive.

-25

u/[deleted] Dec 20 '17

Dude, no one packed alexandria or fairfax. And democrats competed in all but 6 seats. Republicans competed in only~70

32

u/tt12345x Virginia Dec 20 '17

A Republican House pushed through a Republican bill that the Republican then-Governor Bob McDonnell signed to turn Virginia into the 5th-most gerrymandered state in the nation. But somehow Dems are responsible for being packed into districts? Ooookay.

Today we found out that if Republicans only lost the popular vote by 231,177 votes, instead of 231,178, they'd have won a house majority in Virginia. That is bizarre.

-12

u/[deleted] Dec 20 '17

I don't think you understand that delegates don't run on the same ticket as governors. They're separately elected offices.

10

u/tt12345x Virginia Dec 20 '17

I'm well aware. I'm talking about the HoD statewide vote totals.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 20 '17

Yes, but there wasn't a Republican running in all seats, not even close

→ More replies (0)

25

u/[deleted] Dec 20 '17 edited Aug 27 '20

[deleted]

-17

u/[deleted] Dec 20 '17

Dude, Democrats win Alexandria with 80-85%.

I'm on the side of fact.

Unless you gerrymander them to reach out into western loudoun, dems will win those with 85% of the vote.

23

u/joggle1 Colorado Dec 20 '17

Democrats got 53% of the vote in the House of Delegates while Republicans got 44% of the vote yet the split in the house is (barely) 50-50. It took a 9 point advantage by Democrats to break even, and that was by a single vote (ie, by chance). When it takes nearly a 10% popular advantage to even break even on the number of districts, there's zero doubt that the districts are heavily gerrymandered.

If you care about the side of facts, then why did you say 'They [Democrats] win seats THEY drew for THEIR members'? The Republicans controlled the legislature and the governorship in 2010 when the districts were drawn and they excluded Democrats from the process entirely. Is this really up for debate?

-9

u/[deleted] Dec 20 '17

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~jowei/gerrymandering.pdf

No, they included black democrats because black democrats didn't want to lose their voter base.

You literally have no idea how geographic clustering works. Democrats win BIG in places like Arlington, Alexandria, and northern Fairfax. Your arguing that districts shouldn't be contiguous and compact because that hurts dems because of geographic clustering.

And that 53% /44% figure is untrue that's the governor's race. Republicans outperformed the top of the ticket significantly.

→ More replies (0)

20

u/gramathy California Dec 20 '17

You don't understand what district packing is, do you? Partisan gerrymandering gives high margins to one side to keep those voters out of other, more contentious districts.

-10

u/[deleted] Dec 20 '17

Holy shit, please answer me. How can you pack a city that votes 80% Dem?

You're literally trying your hardest to remain ignorant. There are cities, and whole swathes of the state, that vote 80% dem and they're big enough for multiple districts.

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~jowei/gerrymandering.pdf

Just, read that paper.

3

u/livefreeordont Delaware Dec 20 '17

That’s literally the point of gerrymandering. Let’s say Dems and Reps each have 1 million voters. If Dems have 300,000 voters in just 2 districts and win those in landslides then Reps have the narrow majority in the other 8 or so districts

6

u/[deleted] Dec 19 '17

I'm tired of the "Democrats are weaklings who are too naive and get taken advantage of by the Republicans" narrative. It's never been true. Democrats actually exploited a parliamentary trick to take the speakership the last time the House was tied in 1997. And it's especially not true this year. Democrats in Virginia, even kindly southern gentleman Ralph Northam, were very tough and played hardball all year.

1

u/OCedHrt Dec 19 '17

What he means is Dems don't blatantly mass sacrifice constituents for funding.

0

u/[deleted] Dec 19 '17

No it's not and that's not true either. What he was saying was that Democrats won't use the brief 50-49 advantage to secure power.

2

u/Nefandi Dec 20 '17

That's given that the Dems are actually assertive with this advantage and don't let it waste away in the name of "fairness".

The big money donors don't pay the Democrats to be assertive.

-16

u/nukethem Dec 19 '17 edited Dec 19 '17

I would rather be the bigger person.

Edit: Well, fuck me for having an opinion! Haha

9

u/SlipperyFrob Dec 19 '17

"Playing fair" is engaging your opponent in the same way that they engage you. Republican legislatures (at least, Congress) have shown that they're willing to do anything within the written procedures. It's not unfair to play similarly.

-1

u/Cecil_FF4 Nebraska Dec 19 '17

Yeah, but playing similarly is a great way to continue this partisan divide. Compromise is in the best interest of everyone, but someone has to extend the olive branch first. Human nature sucks...

10

u/Neri25 Dec 19 '17

This "partisan divide" exists because the values of the two parties have diverged SIGNIFICANTLY over the past two decades.

Further, I'm sorry, but the GOP has fully embraced power politics. They would love nothing more than for you to extend your meaningless olive branch. They would LOVE IT if their opponents spent more time courting them when said opponents hold the initiative than getting things done.

6

u/Kingreaper Dec 20 '17

Extending the olive branch once is reasonable - but there comes a point when you have to accept that they're shooting at you and shoot back.

When one side wants a war, peaceful co-existence is no longer on the table so you have to pick between fighting or surrendering.

2

u/[deleted] Dec 20 '17

Person 1: Hey, that’s a neat basketball. Can we share it?

Person 2: Sure.

Person 1 grabs a knife and stabs the ball repeatedly, totally destroying it.

Person 2: What are you doing?

Person 1: Hey, that’s a neat dog you have... can I pet it?

Person 2: No!

Person 1: Can I at least touch it?

Person 2: NO!

Person 1: Why won’t you compromise with me?

Aaaaand, scene. I call this play, “compromising with republicans”

3

u/PM_PICS_OF_GOOD_BOIS Michigan Dec 19 '17

Not at all. If Dems don't play the same tactics, then in my eyes they can get out of fucking politics.

It's at the point where they better stoop as low. If it's not in the rule book, they better use it 😎

4

u/[deleted] Dec 19 '17

I hate to break it to you, but the right will never ever meet you half way. Every compromise you make with them will be turned against you to advance their agenda. Every olive branch you extend will be used to beat you bloody. They don't play fair because they are playing to win. You need to play to win as well.

We don't need to compromise. When's the last time that helped? We need to defeat the rightwing.

1

u/cantdressherself Dec 20 '17

Compromise is not in everyone best interest if the disagreements are existential.

25

u/sburton84 Dec 19 '17

Even if the choice is between being the bigger person or actually achieving anything?

-11

u/nukethem Dec 19 '17

Unfortunately, yes. Maybe I'll be less of an idealist when I'm older.

6

u/sepseven Dec 19 '17

people are literally dying because of Republican majorities across the country. in this case imo it's pretty easy to justify using that advantage.

26

u/phillypro Dec 19 '17

fuck all that bullshit

ive been through this too many times

all i need you to do is vote for the lesser of two evils and if you dont want to get your hands dirty...keep that to yourself

im ready to fuck over some goddamn republicans anyway we can

23

u/redpoemage I voted Dec 19 '17

It's not even about fucking over Republicans, it's about stopping them from fucking over everyone else.

9

u/ratbuddy Dec 19 '17

By convincing people that both sides are actually evil, they've already won a battle in the war for hearts and minds. Don't buy into that shit.

2

u/phillypro Dec 19 '17

im just speaking a language a soft person can understand

if he is still speaking the way he is....with that punk bitch attitude (no offense)

he hasnt seen enough or witnessed enough of this horror to even realize the propaganda spread when people say "lesser of two evils"

which is why i chose to communicate in a way he might get

2

u/PM_PICS_OF_GOOD_BOIS Michigan Dec 19 '17

Wow, guess that makes you an "idealist" or something

How dare you aspire to help other humans, like you're some kind of human, you sick fuck

0

u/ratbuddy Dec 19 '17

Fair enough.

2

u/[deleted] Dec 19 '17

Yuuuup

2

u/BoxOfDust Dec 20 '17

You do realize this ideology is why so much is fucked right now, right?

They'll take everything from you given the chance, up to the point where you might not even be alive to be 'older'.

1

u/nukethem Dec 20 '17

I doubt they'll murder me.

1

u/BoxOfDust Dec 20 '17

It was a little hyperbolic, but that doesn't change the fact that they keep enacting destructive policies that harm the world we live in, and in some cases, do lead to the deaths of others due to neglect or similar.

21

u/Eldurislol Dec 19 '17

Unfortunately, moral superiority is not a very effective strategy for the Dems when the opponents and most voters don't seem to care at the end of the day. Hillary was vastly morally superior to Trump, but Trump still won. It's not enough to just play the high road.

0

u/circulationman Dec 19 '17

bernie.... woulda have whipped trump up..

4

u/appropriateinside Dec 19 '17

That's kind of the problem now...

We keep trying to hold a moral high ground, the law will sort this out, these regulations ensure this doesn't happen...etc

But time and time again, republicans break the law, ignore regulations, and piss of common courtesy and propriety. This wouldn't be a problem, except that nothing is ever done about it. They keep getting away with pulling the rug out from under their opposition.

2

u/JemmaP Dec 19 '17

They get away with it until we get every damn eligible voter in the country to show up at the polls and hold them accountable.

And if they rig the election again, we take to the streets and burn their shit down until reason takes hold again or it's all ashes.

And in the meantime, we uphold the law and fight for it, because a lawless world is not one any of us should want to live in.

2

u/[deleted] Dec 19 '17

Be the bigger person after you win, or else you'll spend your life with people walking all over you.

Life isn't fair, and until we have the power to make it fair then we can't afford to live as if it is.

2

u/weakwiththedawn Dec 20 '17

Wow, they killed the clerk responsible? Shits getting real in this country.

/s

2

u/sillysidebin Dec 20 '17

I'd think that even with an unlikely 50/50 situation, some Reps on each side of the isle will flop depending on topic. This has to be sending a message to the Republican party in VA. They called my parents house and I did the survey and said that I'm unhappy with my rep who was doing the survey, because I seriously am.

2

u/John_Durden Dec 20 '17

thanks to a clerical error by a now-deceased city clerk.

WHO THE FUCK IS WRITING THIS SEASON!? Joseph Heller?!

2

u/VisualBasic Dec 20 '17

Damn, did they really have to kill the clerk for making that clerical error?

1

u/gsfgf Georgia Dec 19 '17

50-49 lead, which should allow them to elect a Democratic leadership for the entire session

Interesting that electing a speaker doesn't take 51 regardless, but per Va. House Rule 2 "The person receiving a majority of the votes of the members present and voting shall be deemed to be elected Speaker."

1

u/civilitty Dec 20 '17

The Republican leads by 82 votes, there is a recount on Thursday, and there is a hearing on January 5 to decide whether there should be a special election because 350 voters were misaligned in a different district and 147 cast ballots they shouldn't have, thanks to a clerical error by a now-deceased city clerk.

Christ, did the Daleks nuke the Time Vortex or is this really our timeline?

1

u/Catch_022 Dec 20 '17

thanks to a clerical error by a now-deceased city clerk.

Wow that sounds ominous.